Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Lobos]

DdS may well be a top class 2 mile chaser a d win the QMCC next year. However the times of his races have to be a concern. I know times arent everything but all pf the open G1 races he contested were slower then the other races on the same card.

The Shloer was run 2 seconds slower than the arkle trial won by PTKO on the same day over the same cd.

The Tingle Creek was slower than the novice G1 won by Esprit du Large on the same day over the same cd.

The ascot chase was slower than 2m4f handicappers ran their final 2 miles on the same day.

The QMCC was 2 seconds slower than the Arkle over the same cd even though it was run on faster ground.

The general opinion os that DdS had an off day in the QMCC, my view is that it was the fastest pace he has been forced to jump at and his jumping let him down on the day.

There seems to be a pattern that the open G1 races last year were of poor quality, there is no way a Un de Sceaux at his peak would run a slower time over 2m than handicappers running a half mile more. I think he has it all to prove over 2 miles against better opposition.

I hope PTKO takes him on in the Shloer and sets a fast pace and puts pressure on his jumping and we will see what both are made of.if its run at a sedate pace I would fancy DdS to win a sprint from the bottom of the hill, if run at a fast pace I think PTKO could have the race in safe keeping after the 2nd last. Will be interesting in any case, and we should learn a lot from it.

Fingers crossed they meet.

To add to the above I think the Arkle was 2 seconds slower than the Grand Annual. Different day/different ground but still food for thought.

[Quevega]

To add to the above I think the Arkle was 2 seconds slower than the Grand Annual. Different day/different ground but still food for thought.

different course too

[Lobos]

According to Irish Field Mullins interview, Cilaos Emery going down the Churdle route this season.

[Quevega]

According to Irish Field Mullins interview, Cilaos Emery going down the Churdle route this season.

doesn't quite say that.

[Kevloaf]

According to Irish Field Mullins interview, Cilaos Emery going down the Churdle route this season.

No it doesn't!



What is the matter with you?

[Quevega]

Not the best piece of journalism that whole article, really.

[Lobos]

No it doesn't!



What is the matter with you?

How are you reading it then !

[Spectre]

I've previously given my opinion on Defi, and I'll be having a very good bet on PTKO to beat him in the Schloer. I might even do a Schloer PTKO roll-up to up to Defi in the Ryanair!

[Lobos]

Chosen Mate today clipped into 20/1 from 25's with Hills.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Going to try one more time to put forward the case of Notebook for the Champion Chase. Currently 33-1 with Bet 365. That just seems too long.

Arguments for:
1) Won four novice chases in the bounce last year, including two G1s, making him he the worthy Arkle favourite going into Cheltenham.
2) Has proved his versatility winning on both left handed and right handed tracks, one being undulating the other a galloping track
3) Trained by De Bromhead who is great with Chasers and likely to have Rachel Blackmore on board
4) Beat Fakir D’Oudaries last year by one and a half lengths giving him 7 pounds.
5) De Bromhead clearly forgives him his Cheltenham performance by targeting the Grade 1 at Limerick at Xmas
6) We can be reasonably confident his target will be here.
7) His performance at Cheltenham can be partially excused by both his tiring run at the DRF and losing his head before the race

Arguments against:
1) Has yet to win at Cheltenham
2) Appears to be bit crazy before his races
3) Up against Altior (ageing) and Chacun Pour Soi (Fragile?)

I rest my case. I am already on at 33-1 and will probably continue to nibble away at it.

[jono]

I was a big fan of Notebook last season. Thought he was a good thing for the Arkle which sadly wasn't the case.
I'm against Altior. Chacun is the horse to beat but is fragile and no matter how much connections talk him up, he isn't a superstar, as I don't believe you get beat by A Plus Tard even forgiving fitness if you are. So the race, imo is fairly open as an antepost proposition.

But I still can't back him.
The course / festival form has to be a worry now.
But importantly, if it was a hard race that knocked his chance at the DRF, I can see that being the case once again. He's a horse who puts everything in and for me doesn't really give himself an easy race. At Dublin he'd have an even tougher race surely up into open company. Certainly if CPS were to run, Min most likely. There's no chance the race turns into an easy one. And he'd surely run there again, i don't see a situation where he bypasses the DRF. He'll have just as hard a race this coming season, with the same length of time to recover. Far more likely to just be a case of this year repeating itself for me

[opatcho]

I've previously given my opinion on Defi, and I'll be having a very good bet on PTKO to beat him in the Schloer. I might even do a Schloer PTKO roll-up to up to Defi in the Ryanair!

Depends on who's in the race, and the size of the field
This race is normally one which lack pace, and will be right up defi's street
Could this be a race where PTKO could go off fav give she won at the fez where as Defi was a blow out

I could be ready to unload a heavy single on Defi in the Schloer, despite me thinking Defi has little chance in March of the QM

[opatcho]

Notebook is a terrible price at 33/1
Two this horse has gone to the fez, and blown up twice there

Politologue is 20/1, I would make Notebook at least twice the price of him

[Dessie the great]

Going to try one more time to put forward the case of Notebook for the Champion Chase. Currently 33-1 with Bet 365. That just seems too long.

Arguments for:
1) Won four novice chases in the bounce last year, including two G1s, making him he the worthy Arkle favourite going into Cheltenham.
2) Has proved his versatility winning on both left handed and right handed tracks, one being undulating the other a galloping track
3) Trained by De Bromhead who is great with Chasers and likely to have Rachel Blackmore on board
4) Beat Fakir D’Oudaries last year by one and a half lengths giving him 7 pounds.
5) De Bromhead clearly forgives him his Cheltenham performance by targeting the Grade 1 at Limerick at Xmas
6) We can be reasonably confident his target will be here.
7) His performance at Cheltenham can be partially excused by both his tiring run at the DRF and losing his head before the race

Arguments against:
1) Has yet to win at Cheltenham
2) Appears to be bit crazy before his races
3) Up against Altior (ageing) and Chacun Pour Soi (Fragile?)

I rest my case. I am already on at 33-1 and will probably continue to nibble away at it.

Two questions...

1. What race is he aiming for in Limerick?

2. Surely Blackmore will want to ride PTKO? Or will they stick with Coleman there?

Couldnt be having notebook myself in Cheltenham. Two shocking runs there, and I find continually making excuses for poor runs is a quick route to the poor house

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Notebook is a terrible price at 33/1
Two this horse has gone to the fez, and blown up twice there

Politologue is 20/1, I would make Notebook at least twice the price of him

How is Politologue 33-1 for this with Hills given he was a close second last season behind Altior? Nicholls’ comments already suggest they will make another attempt at this. Seems very good odds to me.

Think he'll be on a downgrade this season

See #53 from last year’s Champion Chase thread. Yes, I got lucky with the late withdrawals but history, or a variant of it, may just repeat itself.