Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Istabraq]

If PTKO can't win that tomorrow then my CC bets are in tatters !

Rarely are ante post vouchers in the fire in October unless serious injury or worse has been suffered.
What Samcro’s plans/expectations last October ?

[opatcho]

I know there are question marks but is Altior at 7/1 worth a dart? it is the biggest price he has been since his final bumper run at Punchestown in 2015.

The CC is generally a small field and not always the highest quality & NH is the right man to bring him back to regain his title. If he'd ran this year surely he would have beaten Politologue and been a 3 x winner of the race and would be no where near the current price.

Also doubts about DDS stepping up to Ryanair and we know CPS is fragile so no guarantees. PTKO looks a strong contender but again, the novices don't always step up.

Convinced myself that something been there and done it is the way to go - it's either here or nowhere and don't think his price will drift any bigger.

Altior is my biggest ante post bet so far

Silly price, based on my following thought logic

1) Ran against the best 2-5f horse at ascot, in testing ground. Ran a decent race considering. Shame it was a 3 horse race, if it was a bigger field you would have see just how much more both of these had over everything else

2) really liked his Newbury run. I thought the Ascot defeat would have left a significant and long lasting mark on Altior, but he jumped with enthusiasm and power away from the field in the last half furlong. Looked well

3) age, doesn’t bother me. Why? I don’t think that arkle was any good, and the JLT lot aren’t coming here

4) Altior will beat everything in the UK, surely his price will be cut after a string of 1’s

5) Chancun, how good is he. Beat defi - a horse who appears to favour falsely ridden races. Beaten by a middle distance horse in A Plus Tard. Mullins has throw in some super stars into this race, Douvan /
UDSand still hasn’t won it. Never been to Cheltenham. Risky AP bet - he may not turn up

6) I don’t think Altior is injury prone. He was off for a few months for a wind op, had 2-3 months off after that gruelling races against a Cyrname, and picked up a knock a few days before the fez

7) even at his age, I just can’t see anything beating it up that Cheltenham hill

Sprinter Sacre part II

[opatcho]

PTKO - step up in trip, not getting allowances. First time out

Tricky start for this one in open company. Field is half decent, not amazing, but decent enough

Will take a look at the race in morning. Good to see the jumps staring to warm up

[Ray]

Altior is my biggest ante post bet so far

Silly price, based on my following thought logic

1) Ran against the best 2-5f horse at ascot, in testing ground. Ran a decent race considering. Shame it was a 3 horse race, if it was a bigger field you would have see just how much more both of these had over everything else

2) really liked his Newbury run. I thought the Ascot defeat would have left a significant and long lasting mark on Altior, but he jumped with enthusiasm and power away from the field in the last half furlong. Looked well

3) age, doesn’t bother me. Why? I don’t think that arkle was any good, and the JLT lot aren’t coming here

4) Altior will beat everything in the UK, surely his price will be cut after a string of 1’s

5) Chancun, how good is he. Beat defi - a horse who appears to favour falsely ridden races. Beaten by a middle distance horse in A Plus Tard. Mullins has throw in some super stars into this race, Douvan /
UDSand still hasn’t won it. Never been to Cheltenham. Risky AP bet - he may not turn up

6) I don’t think Altior is injury prone. He was off for a few months for a wind op, had 2-3 months off after that gruelling races against a Cyrname, and picked up a knock a few days before the fez

7) even at his age, I just can’t see anything beating it up that Cheltenham hill

Sprinter Sacre part II

I havent even played this race yet...SOLD! Im backing altior F****T

[opatcho]

PTKO - step up in trip, not getting allowances. First time out

Tricky start for this one in open company. Field is half decent, not amazing, but decent enough

Will take a look at the race in morning. Good to see the jumps staring to warm up

Just had a look at the race. PTKO wins tomorrow, it put her right in the frame. As mentioned before, a bit going against her being first time out but trust the trainer to have her right FTO

Looking forward to this.

[jono]

It'll be good to see PTKO out this weekend. I'm still on the fence with how good she is, and what the Arkle will amount too. But the flip side of that is that division looks very vulnerable at this stage.

My view of the race and some of the potential runners right now:

Chacun Pour Soi
Has been injury prone throughout his career. Though last season was just very much a case of unfortunate timing. If the setback (puss in the foot) had happened a day or so earlier he wouldn't have suffered another missed festival (infact a similar setback was overcome by Altior the year prior) As otherwise his season and wellbeing was on track throughout, despite the loss at Christmas. We still don't quite know how good he is. Mullins and connections couldn't speak highly enough about him. And for that he's really a horse best played when NRNB arrives in the new year, in the hope that with one run under his belt (fitness granted) his price isn't too short. If I had to pick a winner of the race, he would be the one but I'm still not sure I will ever get to a stage of backing him in truth. Risk what still aren't actually huge odds now (5/1) or take would would likely be sub 2/1 NRNB? For his price to hold you'd be wanting Altior/Defi to stamp their mark on the Tingle Creek and lay down a marker early on.

Altior
He'll be 11 years old in March and I think he's got a tough task to win the race purely for that reason. Especially as despite racking up 4 festival wins in a row, he hasn't been without his share of albeit small niggles (missed the race last season, was touch and go the year prior and has had plenty of work on his wind). I think he can certainly hold his own in the early stages of the season. It wouldn't surprise me to see him be a fair bit shorter come the New Year but despite Henderson at least putting the trip experiment down to 'peer pressure' i'd be very wary that connections were adamant his future further than 2 miles in April 2019.

“He’s very good at telling you things,” Nicky Henderson said. “He told you one thing today: ‘Go further!’”

De Boinville said: “It’s great to get the record, it’s fantastic. He didn’t travel as sweetly as I’d like him, but we will go up in trip next season and go from there. It looks like he wants it. He wants every yard of two-and-a-half to three miles

What will be close to 2 years on from those comments post-race, it would be his second best training feat to get a 5th festival win and 3rd Queen Mother.

Defi Du Seuil
Has to put a lacklustre display in the race behind him last season, which was clearly not his true running. Which has incorrectly been factored into the price for this race (and also the Ryanair). Hobbs has said he's likely to target the same races, but he has no other option with so few middle distance races available. Would be an interesting runner in the King George over 3 miles. And it wouldn't be at all surprising if he were to take on Altior in the Tingle Creek and get beaten to step up for that race, as he has shown the ability to have a short space of time between runs over the past 2 seasons. Regardless of running over 2 or 3 miles during the winter though, I think come March they'll be going for the Ryanair this year. It was absolutely the right call to have a crack at 2 miles at go for this race. The opportunity may well present itself this coming season but I think in the back of their minds they'll go back to the trip they always thought to be best at.

A Plus Tard
Another who has to put a below par festival performance behind him, albeit not as poor as Defi. More likely not to come here however as with most horses, they'll be running over a different trip for much of the season so it's not inconceivable, especially if he were to beat Chacun Pour Soi once again over 2 miles.

Put The Kettle On (Backed)
With the top 2 in the market vulnerable in both reliability and age. And the next 2 imo likely to go elsewhere, the race becomes one where I think slightly lesser quality horses can take advantage. I'm wary of marking the Arkle too high though. On the face of it the front pair pulled 18L clear of the rest. They both showed themselves to be miles better than the rest on the day. But we saw how Duc de Genievres won as impressively (13L) and then got beaten a combined 82L since his Arkle win. The strength of the race as a whole will likely turn out poor as we progress through the new season.

Right now I wouldn't have any other race down for PTKO than this one. The owners rolled the dice going for the Arkle and it paid off. Clearly they are aiming high, and i've no doubt they are looking towards this race. There is of course the new Mares Chase waiting in the background. If she were to disappoint heavily then i'm sure they'll reassess and fallback to that race but until then I think they'll give this race every chance. I also think todays race won't have too much of bearing even if she does disappoint. She's sure to try 2 miles at some stage after and a poor showing will probably just come down to trip and fitness (at least what is said post race) rather than a change of target in 6 months time. I think they'll give her time to show whether she is up to competing here.

Fakir D'oudairies (Backed)
May well have won the Arkle with a better jump at the last. And out of the pair I have him ahead given that, and I think his previous form stacks up slightly stronger. I wouldn't be concerned about connections looking to split up Defi and Fakir. We've seen JP pitch his horses against eachother before at Cheltenham and not just in handicaps (Jezki vs My Tent Or Yours, Buveur D'Air vs Espoir D'Allen)

Cilaos Emery (Backed)
Followed Kev on this one. Given the favourites injury record, i'm sure connections will look to have a backup in the race this year. And with no UdS and Douvan around then there doesn't look to be the usual suspects that have been involved in the race over the last few seasons. Min I feel would drop back if circumstances dictated but that would only be a switch due to injuries. CE on the other hand you'd have to imagine would happily run over 2 miles throughout the season and take his place here regardless of others. I think he's got more class than all the novices stepping into open company this year. He very rarely runs a bad race, and 4th in a CH wasn't a bad run.

Politilogue
The previous winner should never be ignored. His price is pretty fair in truth. The Arkle front 2 are in and around the same price. Are they good enough to finish 2nd and first in 2 consecutive runnings? Once again a case of the potential being priced better than the form in the book. It was a shocking race in 2020 but the novices do have to step up to him. And that's no given. Though he too does have age against him.

So far a race i'm hoping to take advantage on vulnerabilities at the head of the market, rather than be too confident in my current selections.

[Scooby91]

It'll be good to see PTKO out this weekend. I'm still on the fence with how good she is, and what the Arkle will amount too. But the flip side of that is that division looks very vulnerable at this stage.

My view of the race and some of the potential runners right now:

Chacun Pour Soi
Has been injury prone throughout his career. Though last season was just very much a case of unfortunate timing. If the setback (puss in the foot) had happened a day or so earlier he wouldn't have suffered another missed festival (infact a similar setback was overcome by Altior the year prior) As otherwise his season and wellbeing was on track throughout, despite the loss at Christmas. We still don't quite know how good he is. Mullins and connections couldn't speak highly enough about him. And for that he's really a horse best played when NRNB arrives in the new year, in the hope that with one run under his belt (fitness granted) his price isn't too short. If I had to pick a winner of the race, he would be the one but I'm still not sure I will ever get to a stage of backing him in truth. Risk what still aren't actually huge odds now (5/1) or take would would likely be sub 2/1 NRNB? For his price to hold you'd be wanting Altior/Defi to stamp their mark on the Tingle Creek and lay down a marker early on.

Altior
He'll be 11 years old in March and I think he's got a tough task to win the race purely for that reason. Especially as despite racking up 4 festival wins in a row, he hasn't been without his share of albeit small niggles (missed the race last season, was touch and go the year prior and has had plenty of work on his wind). I think he can certainly hold his own in the early stages of the season. It wouldn't surprise me to see him be a fair bit shorter come the New Year but despite Henderson at least putting the trip experiment down to 'peer pressure' i'd be very wary that connections were adamant his future further than 2 miles in April 2019.





What will be close to 2 years on from those comments post-race, it would be his second best training feat to get a 5th festival win and 3rd Queen Mother.

Defi Du Seuil
Has to put a lacklustre display in the race behind him last season, which was clearly not his true running. Which has incorrectly been factored into the price for this race (and also the Ryanair). Hobbs has said he's likely to target the same races, but he has no other option with so few middle distance races available. Would be an interesting runner in the King George over 3 miles. And it wouldn't be at all surprising if he were to take on Altior in the Tingle Creek and get beaten to step up for that race, as he has shown the ability to have a short space of time between runs over the past 2 seasons. Regardless of running over 2 or 3 miles during the winter though, I think come March they'll be going for the Ryanair this year. It was absolutely the right call to have a crack at 2 miles at go for this race. The opportunity may well present itself this coming season but I think in the back of their minds they'll go back to the trip they always thought to be best at.

A Plus Tard
Another who has to put a below par festival performance behind him, albeit not as poor as Defi. More likely not to come here however as with most horses, they'll be running over a different trip for much of the season so it's not inconceivable, especially if he were to beat Chacun Pour Soi once again over 2 miles.

Put The Kettle On (Backed)
With the top 2 in the market vulnerable in both reliability and age. And the next 2 imo likely to go elsewhere, the race becomes one where I think slightly lesser quality horses can take advantage. I'm wary of marking the Arkle too high though. On the face of it the front pair pulled 18L clear of the rest. They both showed themselves to be miles better than the rest on the day. But we saw how Duc de Genievres won as impressively (13L) and then got beaten a combined 82L since his Arkle win. The strength of the race as a whole will likely turn out poor as we progress through the new season.

Right now I wouldn't have any other race down for PTKO than this one. The owners rolled the dice going for the Arkle and it paid off. Clearly they are aiming high, and i've no doubt they are looking towards this race. There is of course the new Mares Chase waiting in the background. If she were to disappoint heavily then i'm sure they'll reassess and fallback to that race but until then I think they'll give this race every chance. I also think todays race won't have too much of bearing even if she does disappoint. She's sure to try 2 miles at some stage after and a poor showing will probably just come down to trip and fitness (at least what is said post race) rather than a change of target in 6 months time. I think they'll give her time to show whether she is up to competing here.

Fakir D'oudairies (Backed)
May well have won the Arkle with a better jump at the last. And out of the pair I have him ahead given that, and I think his previous form stacks up slightly stronger. I wouldn't be concerned about connections looking to split up Defi and Fakir. We've seen JP pitch his horses against eachother before at Cheltenham and not just in handicaps (Jezki vs My Tent Or Yours, Buveur D'Air vs Espoir D'Allen)

Cilaos Emery (Backed)
Followed Kev on this one. Given the favourites injury record, i'm sure connections will look to have a backup in the race this year. And with no UdS and Douvan around then there doesn't look to be the usual suspects that have been involved in the race over the last few seasons. Min I feel would drop back if circumstances dictated but that would only be a switch due to injuries. CE on the other hand you'd have to imagine would happily run over 2 miles throughout the season and take his place here regardless of others. I think he's got more class than all the novices stepping into open company this year. He very rarely runs a bad race, and 4th in a CH wasn't a bad run.

Politilogue
The previous winner should never be ignored. His price is pretty fair in truth. The Arkle front 2 are in and around the same price. Are they good enough to finish 2nd and first in 2 consecutive runnings? Once again a case of the potential being priced better than the form in the book. It was a shocking race in 2020 but the novices do have to step up to him. And that's no given. Though he too does have age against him.

So far a race i'm hoping to take advantage on vulnerabilities at the head of the market, rather than be too confident in my current selections.

Interesting that yourself like alot of people are going on on PTKO and fakir.

am going to preview this on the free championship races part over the weekend

But the general summary is that i cant see it at all. Imo I think last years arkle was poor. I personally dont see PTKO or Fakir playing a part in the finish. I think the front 2 are where it's at. With the market probably having it the right way round. But both are atleast double the price that they should be. Some times the winner isn't the sexy unexposed pick. It's just there staring you in the face.

Will PTKO beat chacun at the DRF or min for that matter. I cant see it at all. I think shell be put in her place and show the arkle to be a poor renewal.

[Craigy14]

I did wonder post race if we had seen a strong Arkle or not.

The front 2 did pull well clear of the rest, but are the rest up to much?

Bar the ‘big’ 3 at the top of the market who all have question marks for one reason or another, the only 2 you would look at potentially are the 2 that finished the Arkle 1st and 2nd imo. I have only played PTKO at the minute as the front 3 are too short for singles for me and also the questions marks over each.

I think A Plus Tards destination could change depending if Allaho stays 3m+ through the season or not. If he fails and drops to the Ryanair could easily see APT dropping to the minimum, given he beat CPS on his reappearance run last year but still a wins a win.

There’s not much else I’d look at in the market, Chosen Mate imo will go Grand Annual again, don’t think he’ll be good enough. Politologue has had his day with the poor race we got this year imo. It may be that something at a big price puts there name forward Annamix (COD ) Le Richebourg if back fit?

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I don’t think we should be fortgetting Notebook. He was the dominant horse going into the Arkle but didn’t run his race probably because of the tussle with Cash Back at the DRF. 33-1 is a massive price. I wouldn’t dismiss Cash Back either.

[Scooby91]

Just to add. I mean the front 2 currently in the QMCC market. Deffinately not the front 2 in last years arkle.

Chacun 5/2 altior 4/1. Would be halving current odds. And I would see that as fair.

At current odds. 5/1 and 8/1 They're considerably overpriced imo. If you coupled them, I'd be dissapointed if you haven't backed the winner.

The like of cashback/ notebook imo wont get within 10 or 15L

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I don’t disagree that the top two are the most likely winners, it’s just that in October prices of 5/2 and 4-1 are difficult to get too involved with without risking a lot of capital

[Scooby91]

I don’t disagree that the top two are the most likely winners, it’s just that in October prices of 5/2 and 4-1 are difficult to get too involved with without risking a lot of capital

They're double that price.


Thats how I'd price them

[Ray]

I dont think notebook acts at cheltenham does he, PTKO clearly does but ive never looked at her and thought shed win this race i think ill be backing defi and altior for this and then one at each way..maybe le richbourg ew

[Lobos]

Some great points made by everyone. Good to hear thoughts about pretty much every horse we are likely to see. There are very differing views about some which just shows how open this race could turn out to be. It'll be interesting how the season pans out. No doubt that if Altior and Chancun can get there in one piece and in something like top form they'll be the ones to beat. However, they do both have very big question marks hovering over them and just can't be trusted before NRNB arrives. By then though any value around now will be gone. That is the conundrum.

[Scooby91]

I dont think notebook acts at cheltenham does he, PTKO clearly does but ive never looked at her and thought shed win this race i think ill be backing defi and altior for this and then one at each way..maybe le richbourg ew

Will defi run. I'd see him on the doubtful side. Maybe 40% he does. 60% he steps up at chelt.