Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Lobos]

Was really bored. Went back 33 years and there are only 3 winners of Champion Chase that did not have previous course experience. I can't ignore that.

Think I'll have a look at other Championship races.

2 horses in last 20 years in the Churdle and just 1 in last 20 years in the Stayers. Can't be assed to do Gold Cup.

Basically, without course experience you have little chance winning any of the above 3 races. Easy this game.

[Kevloaf]

Was really bored. Went back 33 years and there are only 3 winners of Champion Chase that did not have previous course experience. I can't ignore that.

Think I'll have a look at other Championship races.

2 horses in last 20 years in the Churdle and just 1 in last 20 years in the Stayers. Can't be assed to do Gold Cup.

Basically, without course experience you have little chance winning any of the above 3 races. Easy this game.

1 in every 11 horses that attempts to win the QMCC without course experience wins it then....

Need a bit more research before you can be convinced

[Lobos]

Nah, given up now. Taking the current AP list for those 3 races, the stat only discounts one horse..... Chacun. So basically I've wasted 2 hours of my life as I probably wouldn't have backed him anyway. Lol !

[Spectre]

Nah, given up now. Taking the current AP list for those 3 races, the stat only discounts one horse..... Chacun. So basically I've wasted 2 hours of my life as I probably wouldn't have backed him anyway. Lol !

Don't ignore the stat that Willie breaks stats every season, so best to re-include him!

[archie]

Was really bored. Went back 33 years and there are only 3 winners of Champion Chase that did not have previous course experience. I can't ignore that.

Presumably you'll also discount PTKO as no mares have won in that time.

[Spectre]

And that's another stat to ignore now the mares program is so strong. That one is just waiting to be broken.

Epatante winning the Champion Hurdle shows what these good mare can do with a 7lb allowance.

Whether PTKO is the one to break the Champion Chase stat remains to be seen of course.

I'm heavily in to my stats, but I don't use stats for stats sake, and always look for reasons for them to be broken.

Let's put it this way. If Chacun and PTKO faced last seasons field, I'd be fairly confident one of them would have broken a long running stat.

[Lobos]

Presumably you'll also discount PTKO as no mares have won in that time.

No Mare has ever won the race in its entire history. That said, only 1 mare has ran in the race in the last 20 years and got no further than the 1st fence. The last Mare to win the Arkle before PTKO was Anaglogs Daughter. She was fav for the following years Champion Chase but finished 2nd after being found to be lame 2 days before the race. That was 40 years ago. I wonder why more Mares don't run in it especially with the allowance???

[Lobos]

And that's another stat to ignore now the mares program is so strong. That one is just waiting to be broken.

Epatante winning the Champion Hurdle shows what these good mare can do with a 7lb allowance.

Whether PTKO is the one to break the Champion Chase stat remains to be seen of course.

I'm heavily in to my stats, but I don't use stats for stats sake, and always look for reasons for them to be broken.

Let's put it this way. If Chacun and PTKO faced last seasons field, I'd be fairly confident one of them would have broken a long running stat.

Good points. If you always look for reasons for stats to be broken then why bother with them at all ? Give me a stat that you would stand by.

[Istabraq]

I wonder why more Mares don't run in it especially with the allowance???

Does anyone know what percentage mares represent of all horses in training ?
At a guess I’d say 5-10%....

[archie]

As a completely random sample, Donald McCain has about 20% fillies/mares of his total listed as in training. Trainers, of course, are aware of the mares programme and I suspect that that percentage has increased over the last few years.

As for the lack of mares in the QMCC, it's a relatively recent addition to the calendar but mares are generally seen as having a potential value after racing as a broodmare and owners have been historically reluctant to risk them chasing because of the extra danger. You have something like a 12 year window for breeding so it's unusual for a mare to run beyond the age of 7 or 8 unless they're very top rank which means that they are only just coming to their peak maturity when they retire.

[archie]

Good points. If you always look for reasons for stats to be broken then why bother with them at all ? Give me a stat that you would stand by.

I would discount a 5yo for the Stayers Hurdle. Certainly none have won since it took its modern form. At 5, very, very few horses are mature enough for 3 miles at Cheltenham at level weights with older horses. Even the Pertemps is a big ask unless the horse has a reasonably low weight. Only 2 winners aged 5 and they carried 11st and 10st10lb respectively.

[Spectre]

Good points. If you always look for reasons for stats to be broken then why bother with them at all ? Give me a stat that you would stand by.

To be honest I find stats more useful in the handicaps than I do the graded races Lobos. Profiling the winner and placed horses in the handicaps is a lot more fun too. And looking for the reason why a stat should be broken is just a balanced approach that saves discounting winners.

The one stat to hang your hat on therefore is that plenty of stats will be broken. So my approach to that is to look to fill the frame with my bets, and mix my approach between stats horses, unexposed horses, and good old form study. That way I'm not excluding horses like PTKO and Chacun that have obvious chances. If Chacun had been fit and lined up last season there's a fair chance we'd be ignoring the stat you mentioned and you'd have missed a winner.

The Mares stat is bound to go sooner rather than later. Particularly given the significant change to the Mares program and prizemoney associated. We have so many more good mares in training now than ever before, because breeders and owners are encouraged to race them and keep them in training.

I predict that the 7lb mares allowance will be under pressure from all quarters when mares are particularly successful again next March.

[Spectre]

I would discount a 5yo for the Stayers Hurdle. Certainly none have won since it took its modern form. At 5, very, very few horses are mature enough for 3 miles at Cheltenham at level weights with older horses. Even the Pertemps is a big ask unless the horse has a reasonably low weight. Only 2 winners aged 5 and they carried 11st and 10st10lb respectively.

Yes I agree Archie. They're good one's to point out. Three miles at Festival pace is a tough ask for a younger horse, and the stat makes sense, and whilst it may go at some point, it'll be a bit of a freak one.

[Istabraq]

I think many people are guilty of misinterpreting stats/trends and confusing them with what makes up a horses profile.

The 5yo Stayers voodoo makes perfect sense, as archie has said NH horses are still maturing at 5 so to expect them to win a brutal staying championship race is a big ask against seasoned campaigners who have physically peaked.
When Long Run won the Gold Cup he was the first 6yo to win since Mill House some 50 years earlier, so as a rule I am comfortable dismissing horses on age.

One thing to consider, and I'm sure plenty in here appreciate this, French bred horses are jumping hurdles at 2 and often chasing at 3, so when they arrive here they are often way ahead of UK and Irish breds.
It wasn't that many years ago 5yo horses received a hefty allowance in chases but I remember in the Arkle there were a spate of 5yo winners either side of foot and mouth and the allowance was removed.

There will always be exceptions, after all Wayne Rooney entered the premier league and bullied opposition defences at 16...

[Kevloaf]

I think many people are guilty of misinterpreting stats/trends and confusing them with what makes up a horses profile.

The 5yo Stayers voodoo makes perfect sense, as archie has said NH horses are still maturing at 5 so to expect them to win a brutal staying championship race is a big ask against seasoned campaigners who have physically peaked.
When Long Run won the Gold Cup he was the first 6yo to win since Mill House some 50 years earlier, so as a rule I am comfortable dismissing horses on age.

One thing to consider, and I'm sure plenty in here appreciate this, French bred horses are jumping hurdles at 2 and often chasing at 3, so when they arrive here they are often way ahead of UK and Irish breds.
It wasn't that many years ago 5yo horses received a hefty allowance in chases but I remember in the Arkle there were a spate of 5yo winners either side of foot and mouth and the allowance was removed.

There will always be exceptions, after all Wayne Rooney entered the premier league and bullied opposition defences at 16...

Yeah, every sentence