Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Lobos]

Didnt One Man win a Champion Chase after running over diff trips? 2nd in an Arkle is good form in my book for Fakir

He won a Hennessy.....didn't Just win it..... demolished them. Won a King George as well ,all before his Champion Chase triumph. Beautiful horse.

[The King Pimm]

I just rewatched the Arkle 2020. PTKO was very impressive but Fakir did very well too. Maybe BG could have tried to head PTKO earlier but it was a two horse race from a long way out. I think Fakir can still improve and I think the CC is a real possibility given the weakness and uncertainty in this division.

[Lobos]

I do believe that many of the jockeys in this seasons Arkle got their tactics wrong and gave PTKO too much ground. Barry Geraghty has a fantastic festival but I’m sure if he could have gone back in time he would have closed the gap earlier and had a better chance of winning. I’m a fan of Fakir and can see him improving still. I think the Champion Chase suits but a more confident ride near the front.

Mark Walsh rode Fakir but I agree. A more forceful ride from the front is the way to go with him. No problems at all stamina wise and his jumping is decent .

[The King Pimm]

Mark Walsh rode Fakir but I agree. A more forceful ride from the front is the way to go with him. No problems at all stamina wise and his jumping is decent .

I had edited that post when I double check but you replied before I could finish the edit!! I stand by it though and think the other jockeys left PTKO to dominate. I’d love to see both horses in a rematch next season

[Dessie the great]

Mark Walsh rode Fakir but I agree. A more forceful ride from the front is the way to go with him. No problems at all stamina wise and his jumping is decent .

Totally agree. The point Im making is he isnt able to do that over 2 miles. He wasnt able to take front rank at Lep at Christmas and in the arkle PTKO out jumped him at the 2nd and took his position beside Cashback. Maybe he could do it in the Ryanair but I could certainly see him taking the field along in a Gold cup

[YoungHustler]

Where do you think she'll end up?

Champion Hurdle? Mares Hurdle?

I'm sure I read an interview with Jacobs saying Concertista will be staying over hurdles and I feel she'll be aimed at the Mares. The owners have Fusil Raffles who disappointed this year but I think many 5 year olds do against their elders. I think they will have Champion hurdle aspirations for him unless he continually disappoints and therefore will aim Concertista at the Mares. Mullins also has the likes of Saint Roi, Aramon, Saldier, Sharjah for the CH and I don't think he would want to add Concertista to that list when he doesn't seem to have as strong a hand in the Mares(I've got it in my gut that Benie will go chasing this year) as some will be going chasing and others in Dolcita, Stormy Ireland, Laurina going to Nicholls.

[Kevloaf]

I'm sure I read an interview with Jacobs saying Concertista will be staying over hurdles and I feel she'll be aimed at the Mares. The owners have Fusil Raffles who disappointed this year but I think many 5 year olds do against their elders. I think they will have Champion hurdle aspirations for him unless he continually disappoints and therefore will aim Concertista at the Mares. Mullins also has the likes of Saint Roi, Aramon, Saldier, Sharjah for the CH and I don't think he would want to add Concertista to that list when he doesn't seem to have as strong a hand in the Mares(I've got it in my gut that Benie will go chasing this year) as some will be going chasing and others in Dolcita, Stormy Ireland, Laurina going to Nicholls.

Willie Mullins doesn't have as strong a hand in the Mares Hurdle? You may end up regretting that To be honest I don't think whatever 'other' horses he has makes any difference, as Jacob is retained rider and therefore would be first choice on her wherever she ran. Hr only got usurped by Ruby in the Arkle because of status. Paul Townend won't hold that sway.


I do recall Willie saying he considered the Coral Cup for Concertista as he thought 2m would be too short for her, but then she won by about a furlong so maybe he'll re-assess.


Not sure how we ended up on the Mares Hurdle in the QMCC thread though, my fault probably

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tom Segal has put up Chosen Mate as an ante post bet in the Weekender.

[Kevloaf]

Tom Segal has put up Chosen Mate as an ante post bet in the Weekender.

Unlucky backers

[BigChaang]

Unlucky backers

........

[Lobos]

Tom Segal has put up Chosen Mate as an ante post bet in the Weekender.

Bollox, my cover has been exposed

[Lobos]

Tom Segal/Lobos separated at birth.............ughhhh, what a horrible thought!! Lol !!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Bollox, my cover has been exposed

Thought you'd like that mate

The article is poor btw. Goes on for an age about looking for a bet in the St Leger, then a small paragraph on Chosen Mate. I turned the page expecting a big write up, but nothing!

[Lobos]

Thought you'd like that mate

The article is poor btw. Goes on for an age about looking for a bet in the St Leger, then a small paragraph on Chosen Mate. I turned the page expecting a big write up, but nothing!

Ha, ha ! He knows what there is to say about Chosen Mate it's been done on here.

[Saxon Warrior]

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)



2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)

Calculations
Removing the 5 years in the last 11, where there was a
star horse at the start of the season, that went off odds on at the Fez, that leaves 6 "normal" years where we start the season like this one, with an open look to the market:-
5/1 fav
8/1 2nd fav,
14/1 bar.

In years like this one, there were 11 (of 18) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase which began the season officially rated 160 or less.

3 Won aged 7, 9, 9 (rated 155, 157 & 160) - all three had prior chase form at Cheltenham
3 2nds aged 7, 7, 10
5 3rds aged 7, 8, 8, 9, 10

9 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo, at the time of the Champion Chase (6yrs to 8yrs at start of season).

*AMENDED*

SUMMARY
That is just short of 2 out of the 3 places every year that went to horses starting the season rated 160 or less and starting the season aged 8 or less.
The Oddschecker market for the Champion Chase the following horses currently fit the profile.

Put The Kettle On (OR 155) plus 7lb mares allowance. 20/1
Fakir D'Oudairies (OR 160) 25/1
Melon (OR 158) 25/1
Notebook (OR 158) 33/1
Chosen Mate (OR 156) 40/1
Cash Back (OR 156) 40/1
Global Citizen (OR 156) 66/1

Pricewise was obviously reading my research paper from 21st July regarding Chosen Mate, and snaffling up the remaining top prices.