Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[archie]

He isn't even the most hyped horse on here.

He's perfectly decent with respectable form but, by and large, the earlier they start the earlier they start to improve and the earlier they stop improving (and, yes, anyone can find exceptions to the norm). I wouldn't expect abnormal improvement from here but it might not be needed.

As has been said, JP has several darts for this race or the Ryanair and the eventual targets are likely to be influenced by injuries. I'd still say that Defi is more likely to come here but you wouldn't back any of them for a single race unless you had a very good price, cash out or a free bet

[Spectre]

I wouldn't give up on Notebook or write him off as not acting at Cheltenham. It was notable that both him and Cashback under-performed in the Arkle, which in my opinion that was more than likely to do with the pair of them having a hard race at the Dublin Racing Festival. That and the fact he went down to post pulling like a train. Punchestown is stiff enough and he acts there, and his run in the Ballymore was possibly over a trip too far, and he clearly improved significantly form hurdles to fences. If Henry can get rid of his tendency to run his race on the way down to post he'll be an entirely different proposition at next years Festival.

Do I see him as the next winner of a Champion Chase? Not really, because he's now got plenty to prove. But he was 40/1 and that was way too big not to get in my book. I might think twice now at 33/1, but on balance I think I'd still want him there anyway. If he picks up the winning thread again he'll be a quarter of his current price in the new year, and at the very least I can take a nice profit.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not having Fakir as being over hyped. Maybe in his hurdling days (especially after his January Cheltenham romp), but he was soon put in his place in the Supreme, although it is worth mentioning that he still run an absolute belting race for a 4 year old in that sphere.

I don't see how a horse winning two (including a G1, albeit market rival fell), then placing in two G1's over fences is not good form. Also intrigued as to who is over hyping him?? Plenty saying he is value at 25/1 for this race, but that's not over hyping, IMO.

[nortonscoin200]

Was Dodging Bullets good enough at this stage of his career? Was Politilogue? Or Special Tiara?

Writing him off as a two miler is a bit premature, plenty of not 'top class' horses win the QMCC!!!

Fakir isn't that bad, and the division is bad.



His best trip will be 3m2f at 6 years old?

I assure you it will not, good job you don't own him

With most horses I'd agree that running in the Gold Cup at 6 would be a year too soon.

But with French bred horses different rules apply because they begin their careers so early.

Fakir was just three years and three days old when he ran in his first hurdle race - and he competed in his first chase 3 months later.

So come next March he will have been competing in chases on and off for almost 3 years.

I'm pretty sure he doesn't have the raw speed to win the Champion Chase. He'd certainly have a better shot of winning the Ryanair. But I could see him getting done for toe in that too. He's a galloper with a high cruising speed and if Fakir turned up in the GC he would be right in the mix.

It would have been unwise to assure the owners of Golden Miller and Mill House that they were too young to win the Gold Cup at six.

I love backing 7-year-olds for the Gold Cup (horses this age have won 5 of the last 16) and I also think the old saying: "second in the Arkle wins next year's Gold Cup" is worth bearing in mind - think Sizing John and Kicking King.

Fakir fits the bill on so many counts for the type of horse who goes on to win the Gold Cup - apart from the fact he'll be 6 and not the perfect age of 7. But because he started so young that's ok in my book.

[Istabraq]

I’ve said more than enough on Fakir in the past so won’t get drawn into repeating my views that have been aired on other threads, but I’m intrigued with Spectre’s view that Notebook’s Arkle performance was down to his Dublin exploits.
I assume you (and others) have seen the horse in the prelims, he passed every horse on the run down to the start and was then fired up even more with a false start, he simply can’t be backed for any festival race until 30 secs before the off, and you’ve clearly seen him settled, or until they find a way to sort out the issues in his head.

A very talented horse we’re unlikely to see perform to the best of his abilities because of his mental issues,but despite the reservations he should remain of interest at his current price when the majority of those ahead of him either won’t run or aren’t good enough...

[Istabraq]

I know I said I wouldn't but just a few of points on Fakir whilst the discussion is in my mind, I don't believe the gap between Christmas and March was intentional, every chance there was an issue/setback of some making - I'm sure I remember JOB saying that he wanted a prep run but for whatever reason it couldn't happen.

I was taken by the number of pundits at preview evenings (particularly the Irish previews unsurprisingly) who made Fakir nap material.
Also interesting his price didn't move throughout the run up, I had my first play on him at 5/1 in December and I was still able to get him at 11/2 in late Feb.

And whilst the form of every horse can be dissected to suit an argument and can be interpreted in different ways, we know he has the scalps of Melon and Samcro but horses behind him last season also include Milan Native (24l), Ronald Pump (22l) and Burrows Saint (27l).

Fakir 25/1 and Put the Kettle On 20/1 were my first two plays for 2021 and I was shocked the market was disrespecting these two so much, if I remember and if can access betfair just before the tapes go up and if Notebook has made the start line settled then I will look to back that one too, not something I can bring myself to think about but Notebook's chances have to improve if spectators aren't present, but at the moment I'm happy building my boom of multis around Fakir and PTKO.

Others of course will disagree, but this will be a very dull place if that wasn't the case...

[Dessie the great]

I know I said I wouldn't but just a few of points on Fakir whilst the discussion is in my mind, I don't believe the gap between Christmas and March was intentional, every chance there was an issue/setback of some making - I'm sure I remember JOB saying that he wanted a prep run but for whatever reason it couldn't happen.

I was taken by the number of pundits at preview evenings (particularly the Irish previews unsurprisingly) who made Fakir nap material.
Also interesting his price didn't move throughout the run up, I had my first play on him at 5/1 in December and I was still able to get him at 11/2 in late Feb.

And whilst the form of every horse can be dissected to suit an argument and can be interpreted in different ways, we know he has the scalps of Melon and Samcro but horses behind him last season also include Milan Native (24l), Ronald Pump (22l) and Burrows Saint (27l).

Fakir 25/1 and Put the Kettle On 20/1 were my first two plays for 2021 and I was shocked the market was disrespecting these two so much, if I remember and if can access betfair just before the tapes go up and if Notebook has made the start line settled then I will look to back that one too, not something I can bring myself to think about but Notebook's chances have to improve if spectators aren't present, but at the moment I'm happy building my boom of multis around Fakir and PTKO.

Others of course will disagree, but this will be a very dull place if that wasn't the case...

Agreed. I suppose it was in the lead up to the arkle more so was when all the hype about him. Similar story in the lead up to the supreme novices last year.

Personally I cant for the life of me think why they are persisting with him in G1s over 2 miles. He beat Melon over 2m 2f I think and Samcro over 2m 4f. He doesn't have the pace for 2 miles and although a good jumper he isnt quick enough over them to troubke the top 2 mile chasers in my view

[Kevloaf]

To address your points:

He is a hype horse in my opinion as he has run in 7 G1s,some of them very weak for the grade and has won once, when his only realistic rival fell at the 2nd last when going slightly better. He has been talked up for all these G1 races by the public and particularly by pundits such as Kevin Blake.

He's been talked up by Kevin Blake, because Kevin Blake is the race planner for JO'B, so he has a vested interest in the horse. He has more information on that horse than he would others so it's not surprising he'd discuss him.

He has been built up by quite a few on here and indeed on the tv as being a serious contender for the QMCC. I may be wrong but I couldnt have him for that, he wont beat PTKO over course and distance unless something goes amiss with her and we dont know if she is even good enough to challenge for it.

He's been talked up a bit on here for the QMCC because of his price I think, as we tend to be looking for ante post value (it is kind of why this forum is popular) - absolutely nothing wrong with disagreeing with that, I only chirped up then because some of the points you used I didn't agree with... which again, the specific example that "he wont beat PTKO over course and distance unless something goes amiss with her and we dont know if she is even good enough to challenge for it." is just a bananas statement to be so dogmatic about. He was beaten 1.5L, and they were some 18L clear weren't they? 1.5L in a chase can be lost or gained at any given fence. You must appreciate that? What odds would they go off in a 2 runner race? Do you think PTKO would be 1/1000?

End up in a hcap? Surely not.

I dont think he was ahead of the rest of the novices last season. Notebook clearly doesnt act around Cheltenham and beat him convincingly at Christmas, outjumping him all the way.

Maybe so, but we're talking about the QMCC, and like Melon who is 'clearly a stone better at Cheltenham', maybe Fakir is better at Cheltenham too? Is that not part of the point of considering him for the QMCC? His best performance arguably came at Cheltenham in the Arkle, so ruling him out of the QMCC, doesn't really stand up if you're being equal to all horses?

After his win in the Drinmore twitter was full of people talking about him as one of the best jumping novices of all time. He was comprehensively outjumped by Notebook at Christmas and it was the mares jumping that beat him in the arkle. It is a fact that she was quicker through the air at the 2nd where Fakir lost his position front rack, quicker at the 3rd last which enabled the mare to grab the rail at the home turn and when the pressure was really on the mare produced the big jump at the 2nd last while Fakir put down and bundled through it. He is a fine safe jumper but nowhere near as good as people were making out. It was easy look good beside a grand national winner over 2m4 and samcro who seemed to lack confidence on the day.

Firstly, Twitter is full of morons. I wouldn't give two seconds thought to what 'the general twitter consensus seems to be' however he was good that day. To almost repeat myself from above, the fact you acknowledge one fence made a difference in the Arkle means I don't really see why you don't think he can win. Is it not feasible that he puts in a similar round of jumping again at any stage and that'd make him a contender? With any Novice Chase, getting from A to B over each obstacle is usually the difference? Having seen Fakir put in 1 excellent round, I feel like his supporters have that as a string to the bow that he could do it again. It doesn't mean he is definitely not going to make a mistake, but it isn't a negative at all.

I wasnt beating him with a samcro or melon stick. Samcro prob would have beaten him in the drinmore although we will never know and melon is at least a stone better around cheltenham in March than Navan in the autumn.

My point is, even if Samcro had beaten him, and even though Melon is better at Cheltenham, that doesn't mean it's bad form? Fakir MAY have beaten Samcro and he MAY he better at Cheltenham himself.... I just don't see where the negative is?

Maybe not the most overhyped horse of all time but there are plenty who have achieved a lot more on the track than Fakir and dont get half the coverage or are not talked up for races as much. That is all

This was my actual point that I picked up up, I just think you went too far....

From my side of the debate, I'd say on THIS forum, Chosen Mate and Chacun Pour Soi are definitely more hyped and (you could) easily argue they haven't achieved as much either.

[Kevloaf]

Agreed. I suppose it was in the lead up to the arkle more so was when all the hype about him. Similar story in the lead up to the supreme novices last year.

Personally I cant for the life of me think why they are persisting with him in G1s over 2 miles. He beat Melon over 2m 2f I think and Samcro over 2m 4f. He doesn't have the pace for 2 miles and although a good jumper he isnt quick enough over them to troubke the top 2 mile chasers in my view

You can't for the life of you think why an Arkle 2nd might stay at 2 miles?

Come on Dessie, you're winding us up aren't you?



Who are the top 2 mile chasers he has to beat by the way?

Altior?

I guess you'll say Chacun Pour Soi too?


Who else? Who else is a top 2 mile chaser that Fakir (or any 2 milers) should be avoiding?



You only need to go back 5 months to see why 'avoiding' those two from an ante post perspective would be wrong.

[Dessie the great]

You can't for the life of you think why an Arkle 2nd might stay at 2 miles?

Come on Dessie, you're winding us up aren't you?



Who are the top 2 mile chasers he has to beat by the way?

Altior?

I guess you'll say Chacun Pour Soi too?


Who else? Who else is a top 2 mile chaser that Fakir (or any 2 milers) should be avoiding?



You only need to go back 5 months to see why 'avoiding' those two from an ante post perspective would be wrong.

Why would you persist with running a horse over 2 miles who has contested 6 G1s at 2 miles and been beaten in every one of them. His only try in a G1 over middle distances he has won???

Who is there to beat over 2 miles? I think he would struggle to beat any of the following:
Altior
Chacun
Politalogue
Put the Kettle On
Notebook
Defi

[Kevloaf]

Why would you persist with running a horse over 2 miles who has contested 6 G1s at 2 miles and been beaten in every one of them. His only try in a G1 over middle distances he has won???

Who is there to beat over 2 miles? I think he would struggle to beat any of the following:
Altior
Chacun
Politalogue
Put the Kettle On
Notebook
Defi

Here are a list of horses that had won or placed in the QMCC since 2014 that I would say are NOT TOP 2 MILE CHASERS:

Politlogue, Dynamite Dollars, Bun Doran, Sceau Royal, God's Own, Special Tiara, Fox Norton, Sir Valentino, Dodging Bullets, Somersby, Module, Sire Du Grugy




Do you still struggle to see why they are "persisiting" with him? Would he not have had a pretty decent career if he adds his name to that list above?

He's never going to be Sprinter Sacre, Masterminded, Un De Sceaux or Altior ..... but he's decent enough.



Of your list...

Altior - Tick, he's got no chance with Altior if Altior retains his ability
Chacun - Tick, he does look to be very good and his win over Min puts him clear.
Defi - Tick, I do think Defi would beat him, although I think Defi will end up over further myself.


Politalogue - Hmm, well I think PTKO will end up ahead of Politilogue, so given he only has 1.5L to find, I don't think by next March it's certain that Fakir would be behind him.

Put the Kettle On - Covered this, but he has 1.5L to find, which isn't a lot! She wouldn't be 1/100 against him would she

Notebook - At Cheltenham? You think he'd struggle to beat Notebook? It's funny that you want him avoiding 2 miles and the 6th horse you've mentioned is Notebook.





***** Remember, you're claiming those above are TOP TWO MILE CHASERS?*****

[somer1]

Didnt One Man win a Champion Chase after running over diff trips? 2nd in an Arkle is good form in my book for Fakir

[Dessie the great]

Here are a list of horses that had won or placed in the QMCC since 2014 that I would say are NOT TOP 2 MILE CHASERS:

Politlogue, Dynamite Dollars, Bun Doran, Sceau Royal, God's Own, Special Tiara, Fox Norton, Sir Valentino, Dodging Bullets, Somersby, Module, Sire Du Grugy




Do you still struggle to see why they are "persisiting" with him? Would he not have had a pretty decent career if he adds his name to that list above?

He's never going to be Sprinter Sacre, Masterminded, Un De Sceaux or Altior ..... but he's decent enough.



Of your list...

Altior - Tick, he's got no chance with Altior if Altior retains his ability
Chacun - Tick, he does look to be very good and his win over Min puts him clear.
Defi - Tick, I do think Defi would beat him, although I think Defi will end up over further myself.


Politalogue - Hmm, well I think PTKO will end up ahead of Politilogue, so given he only has 1.5L to find, I don't think by next March it's certain that Fakir would be behind him.

Put the Kettle On - Covered this, but he has 1.5L to find, which isn't a lot! She wouldn't be 1/100 against him would she

Notebook - At Cheltenham? You think he'd struggle to beat Notebook? It's funny that you want him avoiding 2 miles and the 6th horse you've mentioned is Notebook.





***** Remember, you're claiming those above are TOP TWO MILE CHASERS?*****

Notebook beat him at his ease giving 7lbs. If he handles the prelims he could be there at the end.

Of course he could place over 2 miles but he has G1 winning form over further so why not run him over further. He has failed in 6 attempts to win a G1 at 2 miles.

Run him over his best trip, simple as

[Kevloaf]

Notebook beat him at his ease giving 7lbs. If he handles the prelims he could be there at the end.

Of course he could place over 2 miles but he has G1 winning form over further so why not run him over further. He has failed in 6 attempts to win a G1 at 2 miles.

Run him over his best trip, simple as

His best trip according to OR and RPR is 2 miles fella.

Simple as.



2nd to PTKO in the Arkle is better than what was likely going to be 2nd against Samcro in the Drinmore.

His 2nd to Notebook where he 'beat him easy' was also only 1.5L, and although giving him weight, weight for age is exactly that, so by definition when they meet again he'd improve physically and should be no worse off than that.








You don't seem to be open to the idea that you might be wrong about his trip though.

What is your idea of the best bet in the QMCC at the moment?

[Kevloaf]

Just for clarity on my position I've backed:

Put The Kettle On - 20/1 - 1.5 pts each way
Cilaos Emery - 33/1 - 1 pt each way
Fakir D'oudaries - 25/1 - free bets only



So I'm not putting myself as head of the Fakir fan club by any stetch, I just don't see why you're so dismissive of him, as none of the points you've made hold up yet.

Simple as.

and I'm sure you don't care, but I posted this yesterday:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Queen Mother Champion Chase - 5 pts staked
Put The Kettle On (39 pts)
Cilaos Emery (41.6 pts)
Fakir D'oudaries (12.5 pts)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not many races I've played ante post where I don't feel I've backed the most likely winner yet...but this is one, as Chacun Pour Soi and Altior are easily more likely winners than the three I've backed.

The value though, for me, is with Put The Kettle On and I've backed accordingly. I do need to get a little more on Fakir D'oudaries given his proximity to the winner in the Arkle. I liked the case I made for Cilaos Emery at his price, and whilst it's speculative, it's definitely one I want in the book.

SW did some good work on the 'placed' horses in this race and their ratings. I'm likely to make a book in the race and am confident I'll turn a profit. It's probably the next race I'll focus on, and as we're only in August there is no real rush.

Chacun Pour Soi is definitely the horse I want to back in roll ups, I don't think I've attempted any with him yet (not checked that, maybe I have) but he's absolutely not a horse to get too heavily invested in. He has that aura of Douvan about him, where they think he's special but that makes me wonder whether he'll ever actually reach the heights he should (despite that making no logical sense)