Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[nortonscoin200]

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)



2019 - God (Altior 4/11 SP fav)
1st Altior (9yo) - commenced season OR 175 (9 chase runs), CC raceday OR 175 (12 chase runs)
2nd Politologue (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (12 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (15 chase runs)
3rd Sceau Royal (7yo) - commenced season OR 159 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (7 chase runs)


2018 - God (Altior 4/6 SP fav)
1st Altior (8yo) - commenced season OR 170 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (7 chase runs)
2nd Min (7yo) - commenced season OR 160 (2 chase runs), CC raceday OR 167 (5 chase runs)
3rd Gods Own (10yo) - commenced season OR 166 (21 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (23 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2016 - God (Un De Sceaux 4/6 SP fav, plus reinvigorated Sprinter S SP 11/4)
1st Sprinter Sacre (10yo) - commenced season OR 167 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (16 chase runs)
2nd Un De Sceaux (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (7 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (9yo) - commenced season OR 168 (15 chase runs), CC raceday OR 168 (17 chase runs)

2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)


2013 - God (Sprinter Sacre SP 1/4 fav)
1st Sprinter Sacre (7yo) - commenced season OR 169 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (11yo) - commenced season OR 171 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (21 chase runs)
3rd Wishful Thinking (10yo) - commenced season OR 164 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 162 (18 chase runs)


2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)


2010 - God (Master Minded 4/5 SP fav)
1st Big Zeb (9yo) - commenced season OR 162 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (9 chase runs)
2nd Forpadydeplasterer (8yo) - commenced season OR 156 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (8 chase runs)
3rd Kalahari King (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (7 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (8 chase runs)


Calculations
In the last 11 years, 15 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the season officially rated 160 or less.

3 Won aged 7, 9, 9 (rated 155, 157 & 160) - all three had prior chase form at Cheltenham
5 2nds aged 7, 7, 7, 8, 10
7 3rds aged 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10

13 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo, at the time of the Champion Chase (6yrs to 8yrs at the seasons start).

----------------------------------------------

In the last 11 years, 10 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the RACE officially rated 160 or less.

2 Won aged 9, 10 (rated 159 & 160)
2 2nds aged 7, 8
7 3rds aged 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10

8 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo.

SUMMARY
It was interesting to see that nearly half the horses placed in the recent Champion Chases started the year rated 160 or less.
Much of this would relate to novices going into open graded chases, and further evidenced by 13 (of the 15) were 7-9yo.

Also interesting is that a 3rd of all placed horses over 11 years, started the race officially rated 160 or less.

Only in 2 years did any horse not rated 160 or less feature in the places, theses were both races that Sprinter Sacre won, with an odds-on favourite coming out of novice season (Sprinter and UDS).

Given this data, I see every reason to go winkling around at bigger prices for horses with current official ratings of 155-160, as they get placed almost as often (45.5%) as those that are rated above 160 (54.5%).

There must be some interesting ones out there at decent prices.

Ploughing through the Oddschecker market for the Champion Chase the following horses currently fit the profile.

Put The Kettle On (OR 155) plus 7lb mares allowance. 20/1
Fakir D'Oudairies (OR 160) 25/1
Melon (OR 158) 25/1
Notebook (OR 158) 33/1
Chosen Mate (OR 158) 40/1
Cash Back (OR 156) 40/1
Global Citizen (OR 156) 66/1

Riding on the back of SW's excellent Champion Chase study I was curious to find out if there is any common thread linking the 16 horses who placed after starting the season with a rating of 160 or less.

The answer is that 12 of them boasted strong form at previous Festivals - finishing in the first 4 either over hurdles or fences. or both.

Of the remaining 4 horses only Sir Valentino came out of the blue and was making his course debut. The other 3 all had decent course form.

Previous Arkle form is the most significant factor. Eight of the 16 finished in the first four in the Arkle

The fact that 75 per cent of these horses had good Festival form is maybe to be expected.

But it does provide a strong pointer about which horses may spring a surprise next year - and which potential candidates can be ruled out with a reasonable degree of confidence.

Here is the Cheltenham Festival history of the 16 horses before they placed in the Champion Chase.

Dynamite Dollars 2nd 2020 Champion Chase: 2nd to Lalor in 20k novice chase at November meeting.

Bun Doran 3rd 2020: 2nd in the 2019 Grand Annual, 6th in the 2018 Close Bros.


Sceau Royal 3rd 2019: 12th in Triumph, 6th in Champion Hurdle, Won 2 hurdle races at the track

Fox Norton 2nd 2017: 3rd in the Arkle and 3 times course winner over fences.

Min 2nd 2018: 2nd in Supreme

Gods Own 3rd 2018: 2nd in Arkle, 5th and 4th in Champion Chase

Sir Valentino 3rd 2017: First appearance at the track.

Dodging Bullets 1st 2015: 4th in Triumph, 9th in Supreme, 4th in Arkle and chase winner at the track.


Special Tiara 3rd 2015, won 2017: 15l 6th in the 2014 Champion Chase

Somersby 2nd 2014 and 2015: 3rd in the Supreme, 2nd in the Arkle, 5th in the Champion Chase, 7th Ryanair, Unseated Champions Chase

Module 3rd 2014: 4th in the Jewson, won 2m 1f handicap hurdle

Finians Rainbow 1st in 2012: 5th in Neptune, 2nd in Arkle

Sizing Europe 1st 2011: Won Arkle, 1st in Greatwood Hurdle, 14th in Champion Hurdle

Captain Cee Bee 3rd 2011: Won Supreme, 8th in Arkle

Forpadydeplasterer 2nd in 2010: 4th in Balymore, won the Arkle

Kalahari King 3rd in 2010: 4th in the Supreme, 2nd in the Arkle.

Conclusions:

If a horse with a current chase rating of 160 or less makes the frame in next year's Champion Chase the biggest clue is likely to be it's strong performance at this year's Festival or the 2019 version.

Of the 7 horses SW mentioned as fitting the profile on the Oddschecker CC market only 4 fit the bill with regard to their Cheltenham/Festival form: Put The Kettle On, Fakir D'Oudairies, Melon and Chosen Mate.

Notebook's 6th in the Arkle and 12th in the Ballymore just doesn't look good enough.
Cashback was well beaten when he fell in the Arkle.
Global Citizen was nearly 20 lengths back in 4th in the Arkle and was previously beaten 74l in the Champion Hurdle.

It's also unlikely Melon will revert to 2m next March after his gallant 2nd in the Marsh and Willie mentioning a future tilt at the Gold Cup.

But PTKO, Fakir and Chosen Mate are all possibilities.

Others who could fit the bill include Duc Des Genievres who was 5th in the Ryanair this year - appearing not to stay. He previously won the Arkle and was 5th in the Ballymore and is now rated 159 over fences.

Another possible is Samcro in the unlikely event they stepped back in trip after his Marsh and Ballymore wins.

But I'm struggling to find other potential candidates - what have I missed??

The two that interest me most at this stage are PTKO and Fakir at 20-1 and 25-1 respectively, which is decent value.

I specially like Fakir but still worry he may end up in the Ryanair (or even the GC). I've got him covered in both those events and have lobbed 1.6pts on at 15.3-1 (with boost) TWAR to balance my own bets should he end up in the Champion.

But I'll probably have a dabble on PTKO before too long - specially if Aramon wins the Galway Hurdle!

[Saxon Warrior]

Great follow up Nortons, this is a big part of what makes this forum so special.

I might start looking at handicap hurdles next.

[Lobos]

Riding on the back of SW's excellent Champion Chase study I was curious to find out if there is any common thread linking the 16 horses who placed after starting the season with a rating of 160 or less.

The answer is that 12 of them boasted strong form at previous Festivals - finishing in the first 4 either over hurdles or fences. or both.

Of the remaining 4 horses only Sir Valentino came out of the blue and was making his course debut. The other 3 all had decent course form.

Previous Arkle form is the most significant factor. Eight of the 16 finished in the first four in the Arkle

The fact that 75 per cent of these horses had good Festival form is maybe to be expected.

But it does provide a strong pointer about which horses may spring a surprise next year - and which potential candidates can be ruled out with a reasonable degree of confidence.

Here is the Cheltenham Festival history of the 16 horses before they placed in the Champion Chase.

Dynamite Dollars 2nd 2020 Champion Chase: 2nd to Lalor in 20k novice chase at November meeting.

Bun Doran 3rd 2020: 2nd in the 2019 Grand Annual, 6th in the 2018 Close Bros.


Sceau Royal 3rd 2019: 12th in Triumph, 6th in Champion Hurdle, Won 2 hurdle races at the track

Fox Norton 2nd 2017: 3rd in the Arkle and 3 times course winner over fences.

Min 2nd 2018: 2nd in Supreme

Gods Own 3rd 2018: 2nd in Arkle, 5th and 4th in Champion Chase

Sir Valentino 3rd 2017: First appearance at the track.

Dodging Bullets 1st 2015: 4th in Triumph, 9th in Supreme, 4th in Arkle and chase winner at the track.


Special Tiara 3rd 2015, won 2017: 15l 6th in the 2014 Champion Chase

Somersby 2nd 2014 and 2015: 3rd in the Supreme, 2nd in the Arkle, 5th in the Champion Chase, 7th Ryanair, Unseated Champions Chase

Module 3rd 2014: 4th in the Jewson, won 2m 1f handicap hurdle

Finians Rainbow 1st in 2012: 5th in Neptune, 2nd in Arkle

Sizing Europe 1st 2011: Won Arkle, 1st in Greatwood Hurdle, 14th in Champion Hurdle

Captain Cee Bee 3rd 2011: Won Supreme, 8th in Arkle

Forpadydeplasterer 2nd in 2010: 4th in Balymore, won the Arkle

Kalahari King 3rd in 2010: 4th in the Supreme, 2nd in the Arkle.

Conclusions:

If a horse with a current chase rating of 160 or less makes the frame in next year's Champion Chase the biggest clue is likely to be it's strong performance at this year's Festival or the 2019 version.

Of the 7 horses SW mentioned as fitting the profile on the Oddschecker CC market only 4 fit the bill with regard to their Cheltenham/Festival form: Put The Kettle On, Fakir D'Oudairies, Melon and Chosen Mate.

Notebook's 6th in the Arkle and 12th in the Ballymore just doesn't look good enough.
Cashback was well beaten when he fell in the Arkle.
Global Citizen was nearly 20 lengths back in 4th in the Arkle and was previously beaten 74l in the Champion Hurdle.

It's also unlikely Melon will revert to 2m next March after his gallant 2nd in the Marsh and Willie mentioning a future tilt at the Gold Cup.

But PTKO, Fakir and Chosen Mate are all possibilities.

Others who could fit the bill include Duc Des Genievres who was 5th in the Ryanair this year - appearing not to stay. He previously won the Arkle and was 5th in the Ballymore and is now rated 159 over fences.

Another possible is Samcro in the unlikely event they stepped back in trip after his Marsh and Ballymore wins.

But I'm struggling to find other potential candidates - what have I missed??

The two that interest me most at this stage are PTKO and Fakir at 20-1 and 25-1 respectively, which is decent value.

I specially like Fakir but still worry he may end up in the Ryanair (or even the GC). I've got him covered in both those events and have lobbed 1.6pts on at 15.3-1 (with boost) TWAR to balance my own bets should he end up in the Champion.

But I'll probably have a dabble on PTKO before too long - specially if Aramon wins the Galway Hurdle!

I will be a happy man if those 3 turn out to be big players.

[Kevloaf]

I've been away all week and have waited before really reading this analysis SW. Very interesting. Lovely stuff as usual.

There is a year that seems to have been overlooked though based on your criteria...

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

2017.... Douvan went off 2/9f, after winning the Arkle.

He was of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and was very much odds on (shortest in living memory?)


Probably not too big a task to amend the percentages?






I'm a fan of this race ante post, have landed on plenty of those winners and it suits a book approach in my opinion. Of the shortlist you came up with, I already like a few, not so keen on others.... but that would bore out in the stats. Looks very solid.

[Lobos]

Interesting that in Keith Donoghues blog he said Davy was shocked by Chosen Mates strong performance in the GA and that he thinks he can make the step up to graded races this season.

[Saxon Warrior]

Interesting that in Keith Donoghues blog he said Davy was shocked by Chosen Mates strong performance in the GA and that he thinks he can make the step up to graded races this season.

Its a good job he thinks that, as he is rated 158, so handicaps are out for now.

[Lobos]

Its a good job he thinks that, as he is rated 158, so handicaps are out for now.

Blimey, didn't think he was that high.

[archie]

156 actually and probably too high on the bare form. To get there in 4 chases is impressive though.

If pushed, I'd say he was more likely for the Ryanair but very much open at the moment. Donoghue's big tip last year was Battleoverdoyen, wasn't it?

[Pendil]

Blimey, didn't think he was that high.

156 Irish mark, I dont think we know the British mark?

[Saxon Warrior]

156 actually and probably too high on the bare form. To get there in 4 chases is impressive though.

If pushed, I'd say he was more likely for the Ryanair but very much open at the moment. Donoghue's big tip last year was Battleoverdoyen, wasn't it?

Yes, OR 156, it was 158 RPR.
The Grand Annual performance was superb, off 147, riding at the back of a big field, giving the other placed horses at least a 6 lengths start, alm race, before starting a move down the hill.

He slipped into the front of the race very easily, and took it up on the bridle before taking enough of a lead to see it out well, despite an error at the last.

Cheltenham Festival form like that, gives him a lot of options.

Most likely its graded chases straight off, if he's good enough he sticks to them, if he's beaten in two or three then he drops down a few lbs and goes the handicap route.

I think he could go 2M and/or mid-distances too.

[Nortons who]

Just to supplement the excellent info provided by Saxon Warrior, the more generic trends info below may be of interest as well.

In respect of Politilogue and Put The Kettle On, I already highlighted on 23rd March why I was backing these two at 20-1 and 22-1 respectively for the 2021 QMCC. Given the recent posts which are largely trends based it might be worth reiterating here the recent record of Arkle and QMCC winners in the following years QMCC.

"In my opinion, if the last 12 QMCCs are anything to go by there looks to be a reasonable chance that one of them will at least run in the 2021 QMCC and I have backed both on this basis."

# Arkle Chase

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 6/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the next Cheltenham festival, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed

# QMCC

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 8/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase again at the Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 8 won, 2 placed

Also I have looked back at the winners of both the Akle and QMCC since 1960 and it's worth noting that 11/59 winners of the QMCC had won the race the previous year and 9/59 winners had won the Arkle the previous year.

Therefore from a purely trends based perspective, 20/59 or 34% of QMCC winners since 1960 had either won the QMCC or the Arkle the previous year. So 'Dutching' both Politilogue and Put the Kettle On was a no brainer for me when making an early book on this race.

[Lobos]

Just to supplement the excellent info provided by Saxon Warrior, the more generic trends info below may be of interest as well.

In respect of Politilogue and Put The Kettle On, I already highlighted on 23rd March why I was backing these two at 20-1 and 22-1 respectively for the 2021 QMCC. Given the recent posts which are largely trends based it might be worth reiterating here the recent record of Arkle and QMCC winners in the following years QMCC.

"In my opinion, if the last 12 QMCCs are anything to go by there looks to be a reasonable chance that one of them will at least run in the 2021 QMCC and I have backed both on this basis."

# Arkle Chase

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 6/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the next Cheltenham festival, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed

# QMCC

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 8/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase again at the Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 8 won, 2 placed

Also I have looked back at the winners of both the Akle and QMCC since 1960 and it's worth noting that 11/59 winners of the QMCC had won the race the previous year and 9/59 winners had won the Arkle the previous year.

Therefore from a purely trends based perspective, 20/59 or 34% of QMCC winners since 1960 had either won the QMCC or the Arkle the previous year. So 'Dutching' both Politilogue and Put the Kettle On was a no brainer for me when making an early book on this race.

Can't argue with any of that! Backed Politolouge at 33's this year and got lucky how the race broke up so he owes me nothing. 20/1 to retain is disrespectful. All over PTKO so I hope she wins for both of us !

[Kevloaf]

Can't argue with any of that! Backed Politolouge at 33's this year and got lucky how the race broke up so he owes me nothing. 20/1 to retain is disrespectful. All over PTKO so I hope she wins for both of us !

20/1 disrespectful to Politilogue but 25/1 and 16/1 weren't/aren't disrespectful to Lisnager Oscar?




Good post NW, I will be adding Politilogue at some point as I'll be having a book again.

[Lobos]

20/1 disrespectful to Politilogue but 25/1 and 16/1 weren't/aren't disrespectful to Lisnager Oscar?




Good post NW, I will be adding Politilogue at some point as I'll be having a book again.

Good point re LO but I still can't have him however many times you want to bring it up.....lol ! Unlikely to back Politolouge either but of the two he's more likely to repeat his win imo.

[somer1]

Just had a watch of the 2020 Arkle again and can see Fakir only running here. Will be a 6yo by the next fest and thinks it has the class for this race.