Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

When you put it in Black and White like that there is every chance that an improver will mix it with the best 2 milers. This year for me has lots of question marks about most of the protagonists. Could be some real value about. I'm even more drawn to the likes of Chosen Mate now. Thanks Saxon, top man.

Ive finished the summary and then added those in the Oddschecker market that fit the profile (9yrs or less, OR 155-160), only seven of them.

I wouldnt be put off by the occasional horse graduating from handicaps either, particularly when they are lightly raced.

[Eggs]

....excellent analysis SW.

[Lobos]

....excellent analysis SW.

Superb. This sort of analysis is exactly what every punter needs. Already on CM, Fakir and PTKO . May add GC.

[Lobos]

Just to throw another spanner in....the GA was the quickest run race followed by the Arkle and then the Champion Chase. Yeah, I know, stiffer course, ground slightly different maybe and weights to be taken into account but interesting for me all the same.

[nortonscoin200]

Great stuff Saxon - very informative read. Lots of food for thought.

[BigChaang]

Interesting read Saxon, I've had a speculative bet on Magic Saint .
Trained by P Nicholls - O.R 154. -66-1 with c/out available.
But at the Moment ., It's P.T.K.O for me..

[Lobos]

Interesting read Saxon, I've had a speculative bet on Magic Saint .
Trained by P Nicholls - O.R 154. -66-1 with c/out available.
But at the Moment ., It's P.T.K.O for me..

It feels like PTKO is becoming a bit of a Forum horse. Get the Teas in !

[Saxon Warrior]

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)



2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)

Calculations
Removing the 5 years in the last 11, where there was a
star horse at the start of the season, that went off odds on at the Fez, that leaves 6 "normal" years where we start the season like this one, with an open look to the market:-
5/1 fav
8/1 2nd fav,
14/1 bar.

In years like this one, there were 11 (of 18) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase which began the season officially rated 160 or less.

3 Won aged 7, 9, 9 (rated 155, 157 & 160) - all three had prior chase form at Cheltenham
3 2nds aged 7, 7, 10
5 3rds aged 7, 8, 8, 9, 10

9 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo, at the time of the Champion Chase (6yrs to 8yrs at start of season).

*AMENDED*

SUMMARY
That is just short of 2 out of the 3 places every year that went to horses starting the season rated 160 or less and starting the season aged 8 or less.
The Oddschecker market for the Champion Chase the following horses currently fit the profile.

Put The Kettle On (OR 155) plus 7lb mares allowance. 20/1
Fakir D'Oudairies (OR 160) 25/1
Melon (OR 158) 25/1
Notebook (OR 158) 33/1
Chosen Mate (OR 156) 40/1
Cash Back (OR 156) 40/1
Global Citizen (OR 156) 66/1

[Pendil]

Ive finished the summary and then added those in the Oddschecker market that fit the profile (9yrs or less, OR 155-160), only seven of them.

I wouldnt be put off by the occasional horse graduating from handicaps either, particularly when they are lightly raced.

Maybe Mister Fisher or 155 who is more suited by 2ml on soft ground (4th in Marsh on very soft - IMO should have gone Arkle). He is 33/1 B365 with cash out

[Lobos]

Maybe Mister Fisher or 155 who is more suited by 2ml on soft ground (4th in Marsh on very soft - IMO should have gone Arkle). He is 33/1 B365 with cash out

Don't know whether he was outpaced or outclassed inn Marsh, either way I can't have him. Makes me laugh though , every time anyone posts his name I think they are saying Mr Fister.

[The King Pimm]

Credit where it’s due Saxon you do put up some great information. You and Norton’s are a massive asset to this forum.

I’m planning on covering all of Paul Nicholls outsiders when I’m next in a position to speculate on the Ante Post markets in a few weeks. There are only a few races he will have the horses to compete and the QMCC is one of them and he has a decent record in the race. I’m planning on covering Greanteen, Magic Saint, Politilogue and Dymamite Dollars because they are very good value for a race that will most probably cut up or at least lack a strong field this far out.

[The King Pimm]

Don't know whether he was outpaced or outclassed inn Marsh, either way I can't have him. Makes me laugh though , every time anyone posts his name I think they are saying Mr Fister.

[Kautostar]

Credit where it’s due Saxon you do put up some great information. You and Norton’s are a massive asset to this forum.

I’m planning on covering all of Paul Nicholls outsiders when I’m next in a position to speculate on the Ante Post markets in a few weeks. There are only a few races he will have the horses to compete and the QMCC is one of them and he has a decent record in the race. I’m planning on covering Greanteen, Magic Saint, Politilogue and Dymamite Dollars because they are very good value for a race that will most probably cut up or at least lack a strong field this far out.

I’d leave out dynamite dollars if I was you.....R.I.P

[Saxon Warrior]

Credit where it’s due Saxon you do put up some great information. You and Norton’s are a massive asset to this forum.

I’m planning on covering all of Paul Nicholls outsiders when I’m next in a position to speculate on the Ante Post markets in a few weeks. There are only a few races he will have the horses to compete and the QMCC is one of them and he has a decent record in the race. I’m planning on covering Greanteen, Magic Saint, Politilogue and Dymamite Dollars because they are very good value for a race that will most probably cut up or at least lack a strong field this far out.

Cheers KP
Its great fun to do the legwork and see if the results work out the way you thought they would - then apply them to this years market to look for some that fit a similar profile now.

Its easy to spot and back superstars at short odds, but not all Grade 1 races are won by them.

2020 Novice Grade 1's
Look at the Grade 1 Novice Chases from March, the Marsh and the RSA were a heap of three, and in the Bartlett over hurdles there was a heap of 4, and the Triumph turned into a pack passing the line behind the winner.

Of those 7 Grade 1 Novice races only
Abacadabras,
Shishkin,
Envoi Allen,
PTKO,
Fakir D and
Goshen
separated themselves from the rest sufficiently to give hope of knowing they are better than the rest of the novices going into open Grade 1's.

All six of those are well up to the standard of the last decades comparative race winners.

Goshens rating is only bettered by two Triumph horses in a decade, though he can't top the marvellous but ill-fated Our Conor whose Triumph Hurdle rating was almost Champion Hurdle winning class.

Envoi Allen's rating is similar to The New One, Simonsig and Samcro, at the top of a close pack of ratings for the race. (Though we all know Faugheen was the best winner of the race in the last decade)

------------------------------------

Of the five big open Grade 1's there's not much to be frightened of either, no "monsters" to be avoided.

Gold Cup
ABP ground out a narrow win by a neck, 1&1/4L and a neck. Only 2lbs better than the fourth placed horse Monalee, in reality.
6 of the last 9 Gold Cups had a better winning RPR. No "monsters" to be avoided there.

Stayers
Lisnagar Oscar won a 3M race with 6L between the first 5, at 50/1.
It was the equal worst Stayers RPR in the last decade.
Defo no "monster" to avoid there.

Ryanair
The same here, Min, Saint Calvados, APT all in a heap, an average winning RPR.
no "monsters" to be avoided there.

Champion Chase
Went to 165-rated Politologue by nearly 10L, stripped of the top line horses.
2nd worst CC in the last decade on RPR's, No "monsters" to be avoided there.

Champion Hurdle
Epatante was a decent winner (due to the 7lb allowance) and the mares allowance makes her an average winner c/w the last 10 years. Her RPR is 7 to 10lb worse than 7 of the other 9 winners, but with her allowance she is there-or-thereabouts with them.
She would be the most likely repeat winner of the 5 'big' races, IMHO, as the opposition currently stands, but she is no "monster" to be avoided there, either.

I only see the potential for big-priced alternatives to be found through all of these races, and I would not be taking any short-priced on win singles on anything in the big 5 races.

[The King Pimm]

I’d leave out dynamite dollars if I was you.....R.I.P

Is he really?? I missed that news, poor Dynamite Dollars, I thought he did really well last season.....he’s still in the betting market on Oddschecker!!