Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

I've had a little peak at CHOSEN MATE and his potential to burst into Graded races.

The comparison I have used is with two other Festival Handicap winning Novice Chasers from March, Imperial Aura and Simply The Betts.

Imperial Aura
7yo
4 chase runs
OR 157
RPR 160
Hurdler rating 135

Simply The Betts
7yo
5 chase runs
OR 157
RPR 159
Hurdler rating 126

Chosen Mate
7yo
4 chase runs
OR 156
RPR 158
Hurdler rating 143, including Grade 2 win.

Just looking at similarities, they all are potential improvers, STB and CM winning open handicaps off 149 and 147, IA winning the novice handicap off 141.

It would have been really interesting in the Novice if STB and CM hadn't revealed too much of their ability in their last races prior to the Festival.

- Who would have won if they had all ran off 141 in the Novice Handicap?

Its possible to put a case forward for any of the three to be the better chaser in the coming season, with the most improvement.

Current Festival prices
Simply The Betts - 25/1 Ryanair
Imperial Aura - 25/1 Ryanair
Chosen Mate - 40/1 Champion Chase

At this point in time, purely based on available prices, if pushed to bet, or offered a free one, I would rather have Chosen Mate each-way at 40/1 than the others at 25's.

Its also a bonus Chosen Mate is trained by Gordon Elliott when looking at long range Festival markets.

[Hardy Eustace]

Interesting stuff. Only 1lb seperating the 3!

It may ultimately come down to how the trainers campaign the 3. IA is trained by Kim Bailey and is likely to be his stable flag bearer this year. The same could be said about STB (although Harry Whittingham also has Saint Calvados) so I would have thought they would be aiming them at graded races throughout the season that they feel they would have a realistic chance of winning, rather than protecting their mark - which could take handicaps out of the equation and mean the CC or more likely Ryainair come in to play for them.

With Chosen Mate he is 'just' another off the long converyabelt of good Eliot horses so I wonder if Gordon will be watching his mark for a repeat crack at Grand Annual race? Very similar to how he campaigned Sire Du Berlais over hurdles this season.

I would personally lean towards IA or STB - just because I think the Ryanair target is more likely than Chosen Mate for the Champion Chase.

[Lobos]

Does anyone know how many Novices have won the Grand Annual? Is it a regular thing or was Chosen Mate busting the stats ?

[Hardy Eustace]

Does anyone know how many Novices have won the Grand Annual? Is it a regular thing or was Chosen Mate busting the stats ?

2015 Next sensation - not a novice
2016 - solar impulse - not a novice - though he did me a great service at 33/1!
2017 - rock the world - not a novice
2018 Le Prezien - not a novice
2019 - Croco Bay - not a novice.

He was the only novice in the last 5 years. I think Alderwood may have been in 2013 (as his win at Cheltenham a year earlier was in the county)

[Lobos]

2015 Next sensation - not a novice
2016 - solar impulse - not a novice - though he did me a great service at 33/1!
2017 - rock the world - not a novice
2018 Le Prezien - not a novice
2019 - Croco Bay - not a novice.

He was the only novice in the last 5 years. I think Alderwood may have been in 2013 (as his win at Cheltenham a year earlier was in the county)

Just looked up last 20 years. 5 other novices have won . Only one of those, Fota Island, ran in the following years Champion Chase and finished 2nd to Newmill.

[Hardy Eustace]

Just looked up last 20 years. 5 other novices have won . Only one of those, Fota Island, ran in the following years Champion Chase and finished 2nd to Newmill.

That was a very weak champion chase if I remember correctly!

[Quevega]

That was a very weak champion chase if I remember correctly!

Think kauto and Moscow ran in it
Just not very successfully

[Hardy Eustace]

Think kauto and Moscow ran in it
Just not very successfully

You're absolutely right. I forgot about that. Moscow was a 12 year old and was a well-beaten 5th and Kauto fell at the third. That was 14 years ago crikey.

[Kevloaf]

What odds would Chosen Mate be on the day if Altior, Politilogue, Chacun Pour Soi, Put The Kettle On and 1 JP runner were in it?

He'd be the outsider of the field.




He's not a great ante post propspect in my opinion as he's not very likely to shorten dramatically.

I would rather have 1/40 he didn't win than 40/1 that he does anyway.

[Quevega]

What odds would Chosen Mate be on the day if Altior, Politilogue, Chacun Pour Soi, Put The Kettle On and 1 JP runner were in it?

He'd be the outsider of the field.




He's not a great ante post propspect in my opinion as he's not very likely to shorten dramatically.

I would rather have 1/40 he didn't win than 40/1 that he does anyway.

I'd rather back Greaneteen than Chosen Mate.
Was a bit keen in the race and the mistake at the second last didn't help as the jockey steadied a lot between the last 2 and ran on nicely into fourth.
Only 6 and with Nicholls.
Gordon's a great trainer but not so good with grade one 2 mile chasers just yet.
Both positives.

[Lobos]

What odds would Chosen Mate be on the day if Altior, Politilogue, Chacun Pour Soi, Put The Kettle On and 1 JP runner were in it?

He'd be the outsider of the field.




He's not a great ante post propspect in my opinion as he's not very likely to shorten dramatically.

I would rather have 1/40 he didn't win than 40/1 that he does anyway.

5/2 fav after winning all the major trials

[SharpHat]

5/2 fav after winning all the major trials

[Saxon Warrior]

If there isnt a "GOD" horse (Sprinters 1st win, Altior 2017&18 ) running in the Champion Chase then at this time of the pre-season I'm of the opinion that its winnable by anything rated 155 or better, and not to get hung up whats already won Grade 1's in prior seasons, and I would prefer to focus on the improvers generally.

Will do it bit of research on it.

[Saxon Warrior]

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)



2019 - God (Altior 4/11 SP fav)
1st Altior (9yo) - commenced season OR 175 (9 chase runs), CC raceday OR 175 (12 chase runs)
2nd Politologue (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (12 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (15 chase runs)
3rd Sceau Royal (7yo) - commenced season OR 159 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (7 chase runs)


2018 - God (Altior 4/6 SP fav)
1st Altior (8yo) - commenced season OR 170 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (7 chase runs)
2nd Min (7yo) - commenced season OR 160 (2 chase runs), CC raceday OR 167 (5 chase runs)
3rd Gods Own (10yo) - commenced season OR 166 (21 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (23 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2016 - God (Un De Sceaux 4/6 SP fav, plus reinvigorated Sprinter S SP 11/4)
1st Sprinter Sacre (10yo) - commenced season OR 167 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (16 chase runs)
2nd Un De Sceaux (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (7 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (9yo) - commenced season OR 168 (15 chase runs), CC raceday OR 168 (17 chase runs)

2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)


2013 - God (Sprinter Sacre SP 1/4 fav)
1st Sprinter Sacre (7yo) - commenced season OR 169 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (11yo) - commenced season OR 171 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (21 chase runs)
3rd Wishful Thinking (10yo) - commenced season OR 164 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 162 (18 chase runs)


2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)


2010 - God (Master Minded 4/5 SP fav)
1st Big Zeb (9yo) - commenced season OR 162 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (9 chase runs)
2nd Forpadydeplasterer (8yo) - commenced season OR 156 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (8 chase runs)
3rd Kalahari King (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (7 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (8 chase runs)


Calculations
In the last 11 years, 15 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the season officially rated 160 or less.

3 Won aged 7, 9, 9 (rated 155, 157 & 160) - all three had prior chase form at Cheltenham
5 2nds aged 7, 7, 7, 8, 10
7 3rds aged 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10

13 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo, at the time of the Champion Chase (6yrs to 8yrs at the seasons start).

----------------------------------------------

In the last 11 years, 10 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the RACE officially rated 160 or less.

2 Won aged 9, 10 (rated 159 & 160)
2 2nds aged 7, 8
7 3rds aged 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10

8 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo.

SUMMARY
It was interesting to see that nearly half the horses placed in the recent Champion Chases started the year rated 160 or less.
Much of this would relate to novices going into open graded chases, and further evidenced by 13 (of the 15) were 7-9yo.

Also interesting is that a 3rd of all placed horses over 11 years, started the race officially rated 160 or less.

Only in 2 years did any horse not rated 160 or less feature in the places, theses were both races that Sprinter Sacre won, with an odds-on favourite coming out of novice season (Sprinter and UDS).

Given this data, I see every reason to go winkling around at bigger prices for horses with current official ratings of 155-160, as they get placed almost as often (45.5%) as those that are rated above 160 (54.5%).

There must be some interesting ones out there at decent prices.

Ploughing through the Oddschecker market for the Champion Chase the following horses currently fit the profile.

Put The Kettle On (OR 155) plus 7lb mares allowance. 20/1
Fakir D'Oudairies (OR 160) 25/1
Melon (OR 158) 25/1
Notebook (OR 158) 33/1
Chosen Mate (OR 158) 40/1
Cash Back (OR 156) 40/1
Global Citizen (OR 156) 66/1

[Lobos]

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)



2019 - God (Altior 4/11 SP fav)
1st Altior (9yo) - commenced season OR 175 (9 chase runs), CC raceday OR 175 (12 chase runs)
2nd Politologue (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (12 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (15 chase runs)
3rd Sceau Royal (7yo) - commenced season OR 159 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (7 chase runs)


2018 - God (Altior 4/6 SP fav)
1st Altior (8yo) - commenced season OR 170 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (7 chase runs)
2nd Min (7yo) - commenced season OR 160 (2 chase runs), CC raceday OR 167 (5 chase runs)
3rd Gods Own (10yo) - commenced season OR 166 (21 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (23 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2016 - God (Un De Sceaux 4/6 SP fav, plus reinvigorated Sprinter S SP 11/4)
1st Sprinter Sacre (10yo) - commenced season OR 167 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (16 chase runs)
2nd Un De Sceaux (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (7 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (9yo) - commenced season OR 168 (15 chase runs), CC raceday OR 168 (17 chase runs)

2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)


2013 - God (Sprinter Sacre SP 1/4 fav)
1st Sprinter Sacre (7yo) - commenced season OR 169 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (11yo) - commenced season OR 171 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (21 chase runs)
3rd Wishful Thinking (10yo) - commenced season OR 164 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 162 (18 chase runs)


2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)


2010 - God (Master Minded 4/5 SP fav)
1st Big Zeb (9yo) - commenced season OR 162 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (9 chase runs)
2nd Forpadydeplasterer (8yo) - commenced season OR 156 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (8 chase runs)
3rd Kalahari King (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (7 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (8 chase runs)


SUMMARY (To Follow)

When you put it in Black and White like that there is every chance that an improver will mix it with the best 2 milers. This year for me has lots of question marks about most of the protagonists. Could be some real value about. I'm even more drawn to the likes of Chosen Mate now. Thanks Saxon, top man.