Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[charlie]

I can't quite buy into Le Richebourg. It's a good sign that he would have potentially been due to run last Spring but we've had a few false dawns in regards to his comeback run over the last couple of years. So it's no gurantee he'd have been declared come raceday.

2 missed festivals is a huge red flag. To chance him after that i'd have been wanting his previous form to have really stacked up by now. But for me that's not the case. His hurdles form left a lot to be desired. He did step up markedly when going chasing, and was the clear stand out in the Arkle Irish trials but he was involved in a shocking 2m novice division, which 2 years on has produced nothing of note. Though it's assumed he would have won the Arkle...on the day, on a line with Us And Them it would have been hard for him to beat DdG in that ground, considering it's been noted several times how he isn't suited by soft. (granted Us and them hs also been labelled with the same brush)
I will acknowledge the Drinmore second adds some weight to the strength of his chase form as on paper form with Delta Work is strong but over 2m4, i'm not sure it's strong as it would suggest.

No harm with cashout of course. But not on my radar at all for this until he proves otherwise.

Whilst I've backed Le Richebourg I have to begrudgingly accept that this is an excellent post. All very fair and valid points.

For me, nearly 40/1 is right on the very edge of being a decent value bet. My logic is that whilst LR was competing in a poor 2m novice division, he was beating the likes of Us And Them easily, and I take the view he would have won the Arkle. I think JOB will have a good season and their plan is for a campaign over 2m - he was reportedly fit and well enough to have run at Aintree were it not for bastard Covid.

I must admit, I do feel like a bit of a hypocrite backing LR for the QMCC, and not PTKO. Suppose the question I have to answer - 'with 30% Arkle winners wining the QMCC, does winning a poor renewal (IMO) of the Arkle and being priced at 16/1 for the QMCC represent better value than a horse who didn't win the Arkle, hasn't raced for 2 years and is priced at 36/1'.

Have I just talked myself into backing PTKO?

[nortonscoin200]

Like the rationale Opatcho - but using your theory I'm surprised you're not all over Politologue for a repeat victory at 20-1 with PP.

That must surely represent more value than Altior.

Think it's difficult to argue that Altior is at the level he was a couple of years ago and he has a big stat to overcome if he's to win the CC at 11.

I generally steer clear of backing older horses at the Festival - for me 7 is the perfect age for the next Gold Cup superstar to emerge - but you are right: the oldies have done well in the Champion Chase .

Can't totally buy into your logic as to the reasons why but I can't offer an alternative.

Had a quick look at the age of past winners of the Champion Chase over the last 60 years (since 1959) and was surprised how few 7-year-olds have been successful. Negative for PTKO perhaps.

Here are the figures:

12=1
11=2
10=11
9=14
8=21
7=8
6=3
5=1

[charlie]

Politilogue does absolutely zilch for me. The race this year was terrible, hence reigning champ at 20/1. For me Politilogue is one of those horses that is consistently good, without ever migrating to great. He didn't have to be great to beat that shower this year, and at 9 going on 10, I think his best days are behind him.

[Arkle]

Think Politologue is great each way bet! is alitor the same horse will Chacun ever make it better to a festival will defi go Ryanair what we do know is Politologue will be here and will run a big race

[opatcho]

Like the rationale Opatcho - but using your theory I'm surprised you're not all over Politologue for a repeat victory at 20-1 with PP.

That must surely represent more value than Altior.

Think it's difficult to argue that Altior is at the level he was a couple of years ago and he has a big stat to overcome if he's to win the CC at 11.

I generally steer clear of backing older horses at the Festival - for me 7 is the perfect age for the next Gold Cup superstar to emerge - but you are right: the oldies have done well in the Champion Chase .

Can't totally buy into your logic as to the reasons why but I can't offer an alternative.

Had a quick look at the age of past winners of the Champion Chase over the last 60 years (since 1959) and was surprised how few 7-year-olds have been successful. Negative for PTKO perhaps.

Here are the figures:

12=1
11=2
10=11
9=14
8=21
7=8
6=3
5=1

I didnt want to mention Politologue.... but... what the hell

Funny how the reigning champ is so big in the market

I havent back him at the current price is because I'm buying my time.

From what I have read, Politologue is due to the Tingle Creek fresh and Nicholls may end up saving him for March again. I want to see what's available before deciding and pulling the trigger

Just throwing some situations out there

- could back him to win the TC and QMCC, at a decent price. If he turns up and wins the TC then that has to go some way to prove that win in March wasnt a fluke
- if he loses the TC, then his price could go out

Undecided at this point. If Altior was to get injuried tomorrow, then Politologue would be next on my next based on 'age trend' analysis

As it stands, I feel Altior still retains his class and potential to put up a 170 run in the QM

[Kevloaf]

I've posted this before, but backing any festival winners each way at SP is profitable, so I can't possibly disagree with anyone that wants to back Politilogue at 20/1.

It's also the same with placed horses, and Politilogue would have been one of those you could have backed last year as a previously placed horse and you'd have had the QMCC winner.



I totally understand why he gets over looked, it's like Sharjah in the CH, or any number of repeat placers in the Gold Cup etc. The lure is towards the unexposed horses that we hope can reach and surpass what we've seen.

In reality, the horses with the form in the book are over priced based solely on their form.


Unfortunately for us, backing horses purely on their form wouldn't find you ever winner, nor would using a system like backing previous winners blind.




It also depends on how you approach ante post.... in this race I'd have no issue at all making a book, so that adds to the appeal of horses like PTKO and Politilogue despite them having very different profiles.


Politilogue is right on the cusp for me at 20/1 - I'm not sure if there will be a chance to get him in the book at a bigger price as has been mentioned above. With cashout available, I think I'm quite close to taking him each way.... but I haven't yet. No rush I suppose.

[Istabraq]

Every chance the race has less than 8 runners so playing ew before the decs can pay...

[Can't Catch Me]

I might be the only poster who thinks 66/1 Brewin'upastorm is a decent bet with the back up of cashout

I know they've mentioned a step up in trip for him but the Ryanair could prove to be a very deep race and even if Brewin might benefit from running over 2m4f early on in the season, its a big ask for him to get 2m5f at Chelts in a championship race.

Clearly he needs to brush up his jumping, but it doesnt look a very deep QMCC and I could just see the race suiting him.

[The Beast]

The one race I have not invested in currently , Im sticking to my guns by avoiding horses who missed last festival through injury so that rules plenty out already.

I can see something coming from left field but dont know what , enjoy reading everyones fancies but you not tempted me yet.

[Kevloaf]

I might be the only poster who thinks 66/1 Brewin'upastorm is a decent bet with the back up of cashout

I know they've mentioned a step up in trip for him but the Ryanair could prove to be a very deep race and even if Brewin might benefit from running over 2m4f early on in the season, its a big ask for him to get 2m5f at Chelts in a championship race.

Clearly he needs to brush up his jumping, but it doesnt look a very deep QMCC and I could just see the race suiting him.

Only person I've seen that's backed him for it.

Not a lot to knock really. It's not that risky.

The horse (in my opinion) seems a bit over rated HOWEVER at 66/1 the bookies have certainly not been particularly harsh.


Ultimately I don't think he'd run here, and is more likely to be a handicapper than Grade 1 Championship class.....but that isn't me dismissing him, he definitely can do it.... I just don't want to bet on it, right now

[Eggs]

I might be the only poster who thinks 66/1 Brewin'upastorm is a decent bet with the back up of cashout

I know they've mentioned a step up in trip for him but the Ryanair could prove to be a very deep race and even if Brewin might benefit from running over 2m4f early on in the season, its a big ask for him to get 2m5f at Chelts in a championship race.

Clearly he needs to brush up his jumping, but it doesnt look a very deep QMCC and I could just see the race suiting him.

....one that was highlighted by Scooby in his review of this years Festival, suggesting it could be a type for the Brown Plate.

[Middle_Of_March]

Politilogue does absolutely zilch for me. The race this year was terrible, hence reigning champ at 20/1. For me Politilogue is one of those horses that is consistently good, without ever migrating to great. He didn't have to be great to beat that shower this year, and at 9 going on 10, I think his best days are behind him.

I absolutely agree.

If any of Defi, Chacun or Altior turned up and performed anywhere near their best, all would beat Politologue. So there’s 3 that finish in front of him if they turned up and ran like we know they’re capable of. Even at his best, he’s not better than any of those three on their better days.

And that’s without the ones who have the potential to improve to a better standard than Politologue has shown like PTKO, Fakir or even Chosen Mate. All have the potential to be big improvers and that would also make Politologue susceptible.

It’s rare that a defending champion of a championship race will be a big price in the year after winning but at 20/1, that still tempts me in absolutely no way whatsoever. Wouldn’t back him with counterfeit.

[Eggs]

...talk on the Stayers Hurdle thread of Lord Royal put up by Simon Rowlands at a massive 66-1, but he also seems particularly keen on Greaneteen for this @ 50-1. He selects it in his Dark Horses article (below) and also in his 5 to follow;

http://jumps.attheraces.com/features/dark-horses

[Lobos]

The way the Mullins clan talk about Chancun you'd have to say if they can get him to the race he'd go off a hot fav. I've not had a penny on him and just can't bring myself to back him before NRNB. Trouble is, his odds would have shrunk by then. Catch 22 time. Help !

[Istabraq]

The way the Mullins clan talk about Chancun you'd have to say if they can get him to the race he'd go off a hot fav. I've not had a penny on him and just can't bring myself to back him before NRNB. Trouble is, his odds would have shrunk by then. Catch 22 time. Help !

He’s already an horrific price given you just cannot trust his wellbeing.
Granted he will go off short if he makes it but no-one can be confident he gets there surely...