Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Kevloaf]

I would be shocked if some of the top 2 m novice chasers from last season didn't progress enough to beat defi if he turned up in a CC. Also putting Chosen Mate in the same bracket as FDD and PTKO is laughable.

Why exactly do you need a big leap of faith to see PTKO or FDD challenging in a CC? The novice chases at Cheltenham in Nov, March and in Sandown in Nov were all faster than the open G1s. In Ascot the 2 m chase was slower than the last 2miles of the 2m5f hcap chase earlier in the card.

Defi has been winning very poor renewals of 2m G1s this season. PTKO might come accross the water similar to last season for "so called" easier pickings as Im sure De Bromhead will want to keep is battallion apart

Well it isn't laughable, he's within 4 lbs of them based on a run from the same week.

Chosen Mate is closer to Fakir and PTKO (wven with her allowance), than Fakir or PTKO are to Defi Du Seuil, so that's laughable?





PTKO might come over and win, she also might not? Having literally started a thread highlighting and backing her for the Tingle Creek, that isn't news to me.... but I am able to understand that she needs to improve to get to that level, and I feel the price was right.


You keep repeating the times at me, and ignored my counter to that question, what is do you believe Defi Du Seuil would have lost if he'd been in any of those races with them? I don't. I think he'd travel perfectly well and run past them after the last, as he's just a better horse.

[Kevloaf]

I would be shocked if some of the top 2 m novice chasers from last season didn't progress enough to beat defi if he turned up in a CC. Also putting Chosen Mate in the same bracket as FDD and PTKO is laughable.

Why exactly do you need a big leap of faith to see PTKO or FDD challenging in a CC? The novice chases at Cheltenham in Nov, March and in Sandown in Nov were all faster than the open G1s. In Ascot the 2 m chase was slower than the last 2miles of the 2m5f hcap chase earlier in the card.

Defi has been winning very poor renewals of 2m G1s this season. PTKO might come accross the water similar to last season for "so called" easier pickings as Im sure De Bromhead will want to keep is battallion apart

Also pal, your first post on here, you made a huge point of saying Fakir D'oudaries is the most hyped horse in training....

Long time reader, first time poster and I want to discuss Fakir Doudairies.

Fakir D'oudairies has to be the greatest hype horse of all time. Dont get me wrong you would love to own him but he is not a G1 horse over 2 miles.

15 posts later, you now think he doesn't need a huge leap to be winning grade 1s, including the QMCC.






That is laughable?

[Dessie the great]

Also pal, your first post on here, you made a huge point of saying Fakir D'oudaries is the most hyped horse in training....


15 posts later, you now think he doesn't need a huge leap to be winning grade 1s?

You literally said "You need a big leap of faith to believe that either of them will be genuine 2 milers"

Fakir is over hyped imo, and hasn't achieved on the course what the talk would lead you to believe that he would.

Chosen mate got his rating from winning a hcap. IMO hcap form is miles off G1 winning form.

Comparing ratings of novices to seasoned chasers as a level of ability is a fruitless exercise. You are expecting novices to have the same ratings as horses after having two seasons over fences. You just cant do that, novices have a lot more scope for improvement.

The times of races are one tool for analysing a race but I do find it strange that every race that Defi won last year was run in a slower time than a novice race on the same card or a hcap on the same card. Certainly not a boost for the form.

In summary:
Defi not a star over 2 miles, potentially better over further
Fakir over hyped as the next star but is capable, better over further.
PTKO has to improve but certainly within the realms of possibility
Chosen mate will be in the GA next year

[Kevloaf]

You literally said "You need a big leap of faith to believe that either of them will be genuine 2 milers"

Fakir is over hyped imo, and hasn't achieved on the course what the talk would lead you to believe that he would.

Chosen mate got his rating from winning a hcap. IMO hcap form is miles off G1 winning form.

Comparing ratings of novices to seasoned chasers as a level of ability is a fruitless exercise. You are expecting novices to have the same ratings as horses after having two seasons over fences. You just cant do that, novices have a lot more scope for improvement.

The times of races are one tool for analysing a race but I do find it strange that every race that Defi won last year was run in a slower time than a novice race on the same card or a hcap on the same card. Certainly not a boost for the form.

In summary:
Defi not a star over 2 miles, potentially better over further
Fakir over hyped as the next star but is capable, better over further.
PTKO has to improve but certainly within the realms of possibility
Chosen mate will be in the GA next year

I literally used speech marks to quote your use of "genuine 2 milers" .... you haven't quoted it properly or in context




So, from your summary, if Fakir is over hyped, and not a star, why do you think it's laughable that I said they would both need a huge leap? You then acknowledge PTKO needs to improve? The point I am highlighting is your contradiction - you call me out for saying they both need to improve a lot, yet one of them for you is over hyped and the other could be a top class 2 miler and will be better than the average Defi Du Seuil at 2 miles?


What you're saying just doesn't add up.


I don't like Chosen Mate either, I've openly knocked him - but using one of the tools (ratings) to back up that what I am saying is less hyperbole than what you've said seemed justified.

[Dessie the great]

I literally used speech marks to quote your use of "genuine 2 milers" ....




So, from your summary, if Fakir is over hyped, and not a star, why do you think it's laughable that I said they would both need a huge leap? You then acknowledge PTKO needs to improve? The point I am highlighting is your contradiction - you call me out for saying they both need to improve a lot, yet one of them for you is over hyped and the other could be a top class 2 miler and will be better than the average Defi Du Seuil at 2 miles?


What you're saying just doesn't add up.


I don't like Chosen Mate either, I've openly knocked him - but using one of the tools (ratings) to back up that what I am saying is less hyperbole than what you've said seemed justified.

All novices need to improve to win in open company, it is the rate that horse develop at. Most of last seasons novices will have a higher rating at the end of the 20/21 season. That is natural progression for horses.
They both need to continue natural improvement.

You said the need a huge leap, which I would pick up as unlikely that they will be able for it. Fakir is over hyped on what he has achieved to date. He hasnt backed up the talk but he is only a 5 yr old so has the time to do it.
Defi hasnt beaten a top 2 miler at the peak of their powers, although clearly v good at 2 miles he isnt at the very top imo. I would fancy a few of the novices to improve past him this season at different tracks during the season.

[Kevloaf]

All novices need to improve to win in open company, it is the rate that horse develop at. Most of last seasons novices will have a higher rating at the end of the 20/21 season. That is natural progression for horses.
They both need to continue natural improvement.

You said the need a huge leap, which I would pick up as unlikely that they will be able for it. Fakir is over hyped on what he has achieved to date. He hasnt backed up the talk but he is only a 5 yr old so has the time to do it.
Defi hasnt beaten a top 2 miler at the peak of their powers, although clearly v good at 2 miles he isnt at the very top imo. I would fancy a few of the novices to improve past him this season at different tracks during the season.

Not all, Altior didn't need to improve when he was a novice, he won an open graded race in prep for the Arkle. He's a genuine top class 2 miler though...


....the point again, is that if what Fakir has achieved to date is over hyped, it drags what PTKO has achieved down with it, therefore backing up my statement that they do need a huge leap forward (to get to genuine top class 2 mile level). To clarify, I believe Defi Du Seuil is below that level, however that level is still setting the bar quite high for the novices to get to. Furthermore, I have backed PTKO so I am clearly not in disagreement that she cannot do it. What I do think, is the price is a good value to in the hope she does.


To finish off, Defi might not need to ever beat a top 2 miler at the peak of their powers to become a Champion Chaser and add to his ever growing list of graded wins over 2 miles... By my reckoning there is only Altior that's proven, Chacun Pour Soi is potentially there and Defi Du Seuil is about as good as Min. Grade 1 horses, but not absolute elite level.

[Dessie the great]

We will agree to disagree ����

[Dessie the great]

My 1,2,3 would be
1. Chacun
2. PTKO
3. Altior

[Hardy Eustace]

Interesting stuff Dessie, you rightly accept novices have to improve into open company and you have PTKO as your CC 2nd but you think Fakir is over rated - there was less than 2 lengths between them in the Arkle so why isn't it possible that fakir reaches or improves past PTKO? If you like PTKO why don't you like Fakir?

[Dessie the great]

Interesting stuff Dessie, you rightly accept novices have to improve into open company and you have PTKO as your CC 2nd but you think Fakir is over rated - there was less than 2 lengths between them in the Arkle so why isn't it possible that fakir reaches or improves past PTKO? If you like PTKO why don't you like Fakir?

I don't think he will line up to be honest as I think he is better over further. If he did line up I couldnt see him revrsing form with PTKO, to me she looked to be idling badly after the last looking for company which allowed Fakir to close, once the loose horse came to her she pulled away again in the last 100 yards. I think she would have beaten Fakir by more if she had another challenger on the day. Thats just my reading of it. Im probably wrong for often than not . If Chacun arrives in top form he surely beats them all though. There may only be 5 to 7 runners I think

[Lobos]

Chacun Por Soi... translation....'Every man for Himself'.

[Lobos]

Defi Du Seuil...... translation..... 'Threshold Challenge'.

[Lobos]

Altior..... translation.....'Higher'.

[Istabraq]

Arkle - Captain Guinneas
Marsh - Envoi Allen
RSA - Monkfish
Champion Hurdle - Epitante
Stayers - Paisley Park
Champion chase - PTKO
Ryanair - Melon
Gold Cup - ABP

This from DTG posted 9 Aug on the most likely winners thread.
What’s changed for you to think Chacun is your most likely winner when you said this was PTKO a couple of weeks back ?

[Dessie the great]

Arkle - Captain Guinneas
Marsh - Envoi Allen
RSA - Monkfish
Champion Hurdle - Epitante
Stayers - Paisley Park
Champion chase - PTKO
Ryanair - Melon
Gold Cup - ABP

This from DTG posted 9 Aug on the most likely winners thread.
What’s changed for you to think Chacun is your most likely winner when you said this was PTKO a couple of weeks back ?

Well what odds woild you get on him turning up on the day? When punting anti post you obviously have to factor in the likelyhood of the horse being fit to line up. If he turns up fit on the 17th March I think he would be very hard to beat. If he doesnt make it then I fancy PTKO on to beat whats left. I think that would be a fairly common view in regard to Chacun?