Gold Cup 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mmmm I struggle with him, I think he would win a NHC but not so sure in a Gold Cup....
Is his going to be as effective at that pace? Is he going to be as effective on that ground?
Maybe, maybe not... but not for me in a GC.

Rich should roll the dice though and take his chance. I think hes rated higher than ABP when he won his first

Absolutely should go for it, we are looking like a 3 horse race at best imo, and only one of them is proven over the gold cup conditions. Next year Monkfish and EA will be there, that’s something they would think about I should think.

[Hurricane fly]

When are the Denman entries out?

Realising my book is centred around Champ

[Istabraq]

When are the Denman entries out?

Realising my book is centred around Champ

Given the forecast I’m not convinced Newbury survives next week....

[Lobos]

Given the forecast I’m not convinced Newbury survives next week....

Another GC challenger bites the dust then. What a crap race (on paper) it's turning out to be

[Istabraq]

Another GC challenger bites the dust then. What a crap race (on paper) it's turning out to be

Ascot chase the week after and a few hurdle options available, weather pending of course...

[Garrison Savannah]

Looks like another disappointing gold cup renewal.

At the moment preference would be

• ABP
• A Plus Tard
• Champ (IF he has learned to jump)

Struggling to see anything else coming into the the convo

I agree except I’d rule Champ out too. Last year’s RSA form hasn’t worked out well and he’s had an awful prep.

My preference is ABP but the 9/1 with 365 for APT is good value.

[opatcho]

Champ couldnt jump last year, and they're likely to go straight to the gold cup.... pass

[Nortons who]

Based on yesterday's run Native River must still be in with an outside chance for this, so long as the Friday ground has got some soft in the going description. At his age, number of chases etc, he would need to defy a few strong trends to actually go and win it but there is no doubting the fact that Richard Johnson seens to ride him exceptionally well and maximise NRs staying power.

I agree that ABP is sfill the most likely winner and APT probably the closest challenger but if NR gets into a good rhythm on the ground he likes, then maybe he could make a race of it.

Conversly if the ground comes up as genuinely good, Frodon will be primed by PN to run the race of his life. It must say something that PN didn't even enter him in the Ryanair this year.

[Lobos]

How is ABP not shorter in this ??? Should be around 6/4

[ToniC]

I agree except I’d rule Champ out too. Last year’s RSA form hasn’t worked out well and he’s had an awful prep.

My preference is ABP but the 9/1 with 365 for APT is good value.

Came here to say this, APT is a bet & a half at 9/1.

I’ll hold on to my minella Indo slips, that wasn’t his true running today but the fall has clearly affected him and his price is probably about right after today & he’ll have to be an extremely good horse to come back & win this now. Rachael will have a very hard decision to make come March.

The British look crap this season, santini got an awful attitude doesn’t look like he wants it at all, situation with champ would be laughable if it hadn’t got so tiresome & I do hope Newbury is off it would serve them right.

APTs win at Christmas was no fluke, melon & Kemboy might have cut each other’s throats a bit but he was a convincing winner & ran through the line like he’d love the hill and now Kemboy has done his form a big favour today.

[Run4Home]

Champ couldnt jump last year, and they're likely to go straight to the gold cup.... pass

Don’t think he’ll run in the Denman?

[opatcho]

Don’t think he’ll run in the Denman?

They'll find a reason not to run him, air too dry for him or grass being too green

[Nortons who]

For those who are offended by Trends, read no further !

Following the Irish Gold Cup I have updated the GC entries info relating to the strongest GC trends. Where failing multiple trends these are listed in brackets alonside each horse.

Starting with Age:

# No winner older than 10 since 1969, which potentially therefore rules out :

Acapella Bourgeous (also fails against : G1 chase, won season, OR, >14 chases)
Aso (G1 chase, won season, OR)
Lake View Lad (G1 chase, OR, > 14 chases)
Native River (< 14 chases, Heavy ground)
Yorkhill (OR)

# No winner age 10 or older this century 0 from 75 runners, then brings in :

Black Op (G1 chase, won season, OR, Heavy ground)
Bristol De Mai (beaten 1st GC, > 14 chases, Heavy ground)
Master Tommy Tucker (G1 chase, OR)
Presenting Percy (beaten 1st GC)
Waiting Patiently (won season)
Magic of Light (won G1, OR, > 14 chases, Heavy ground)
Shattered Love (OR, beaten 1st GC, > 14 chases, Heavy ground)

# Horses beaten in first Gold Cup is 1/87 (which was Native River in 2018) since The Fellow in 1993. This takes out :

Delta Work (won season)
Kemboy (>14 chases)
Lostintranslation (won season, Heavy ground)
Real Steel (G1 chase, won season, OR)
Santini (G1 chase, won season, Heavy ground)

# Horses won a Grade 1 chase = 20 of the last 21, takes out :

Allaho (OR, Heavy ground)
Burrows Saint (won season, OR, Heavy ground)
Imperial Aura (OR, Heavy ground)
Lord Du Mesnil (won seaso?, OR, > 14 chases)
Melon (won season, Heavy ground)
Minella Indo (OR)
Mister Malarky (OR, >14 chases, Heavy ground)
Royal Pagaille (Heavy ground)
Saint Calvados (won season, Heavy ground)
Simply The Betts (won season, OR)
Spyglass Hill (won season, OR, Heavy ground)
The Conditional (won season, OR, Heavy ground)
Vinndication (won season, OR)

# Won that Season = 20 of the last 22, takes out :

Champ (OR)
Itchy Feet (OR, Heavy ground)
Samcro (OR)
Terrefort (OR, >14 chases)

# Has run more than 14 chases = 2 of the last 22, takes out :

Cyrname
Frodon

# Horses with an OR of at least 166 = 17 of the last 20 which takes out :

Battleoverdoyen (Heavy ground)

# Horses which have run on Heavy Ground that season = 0/ 84 this century, included for completeness.

Which only leaves :

Al Boum Photo
A Plus Tard

But being charitable, probably sensible to bring back into the list those which have only failed on one trend, ie Cyrname and Frodon

The following trends are also fairly strong :

# Placed in the Top 2 Last Time Out = 17/20

Al Boum Photo, A Plus Tard and Frodon pass but Cyrname fails on this

# Top 3 in the betting = 17/20

Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard are the only two GC entries which pass all trends.

Possibly of interest but not greatly significant as ABP is the reigning GC champion (and it worked out OK for him last year) but 12 of the last 15 winners had 2-5 runs that season. ABP has had 1 and APT 2.

Is it just a coincidence that this has ended up as ABP versus APT (3 letter abbreviations which if said quickly almost sound the same) ?

Note : Champ would have to win a prep Chase, not on Heavy ground and move up the betting to be in a similar position.

[Istabraq]

Great work NW...

[archie]

APTs win at Christmas was no fluke, melon & Kemboy might have cut each other’s throats a bit but he was a convincing winner & ran through the line like he’d love the hill and now Kemboy has done his form a big favour today.

I am clearly biased but I think that Kemboy should have beaten APT at Christmas and would have beaten him yesterday if he'd turned up.

That said, I'd prefer APT's chances at Cheltenham although I'd be firmly back with Kemboy at Punchestown.