Gold Cup 2021

[Block 205]

Gold Cup Spectre.
Horses don’t win a Gold Cup if they’ve run on ground officially described at Heavy.
Davy Russell explained this at a preview eve a few years ago...

That's a fair point, but it makes you wonder what his plan would be if he waited for Haydock and it came up heavy, which it has been for that meeting in 7 years out of the last 10. He might get lucky and get the conditions that they had in 2017 (GS) or 2015 (S/GS), but I'd assume that 2019 would be no good either (G/GS), as I'm sure that he wouldn't want to run him on anything like good ground either.

If it turned out to be the case that they waited for Haydock but that also turned out to be heavy, so ended up presumably just having a racecourse gallop somewhere, I can't see how not having been in a proper race for nearly 3 months would be a better prep than running him now and giving him almost 7 weeks to recover before the Gold Cup, as it didn't do him any harm running in the Cotswold Chase on soft ground last year.

[Outlaw]

Is he though? I can't remember who posted it, but I'm sure there's a stat about horses running on heavy during the season (or was it from January), and they then don't go on to win graded races at the Festival.

The year Native River won it his prep was heavy feck what the official going was that was heavy. As others have eluded to above it’s more than likely going to be as bad at Haydock.

Its hard not to think he’s a prize plum this season with his excuses/reasoning IMO. I’d say he’s scared to run him and be defeated but he chucked him in the KG so I can’t use that one

[Istabraq]

I find it astonishing that he has last years neck runner up and the winner of a high quality RSA renewal and he can’t get more than one combined run into them by mid January, it just doesn’t add up...

[Lobos]

Gold Cup Spectre.
Horses don’t win a Gold Cup if they’ve run on ground officially described at Heavy.
Davy Russell explained this at a preview eve a few years ago...

Jodami won in 93 and ran on heavy the same season ? Dies it just go back 10 years or so ?

[FinalFurlong91]

I find it astonishing that he has last years neck runner up and the winner of a high quality RSA renewal and he can’t get more than one combined run into them by mid January, it just doesn’t add up...

Most of his horses have been campaigned strangely this season

[Evesham Road]

Jodami won in 93 and ran on heavy the same season ? Dies it just go back 10 years or so ?

Gaultstats says no winner this century, so it's a reasonably reliable indicator if not an all-time stat. Native River broke the stat about Gold Cup winners not having run in the race and not won before. I was confusing the two before I checked, so others might have been too.

More generally, "In all Grade 1 chases at the Festival going back to 2005 of the last 51 to have run on heavy ground within the last 30 days, 6 placed, no winners."

So waiting until Haydock in order to avoid heavy ground is a risky approach from this perspective. Nicky playing with fire, or his those marbles he hasn't already lost.

[Lobos]

Gaultstats says no winner this century, so it's a reasonably reliable indicator if not an all-time stat. Native River broke the stat about Gold Cup winners not having run in the race and not won before. I was confusing the two before I checked, so others might have been too.

More generally, "In all Grade 1 chases at the Festival going back to 2005 of the last 51 to have run on heavy ground within the last 30 days, 6 placed, no winners."

So waiting until Haydock in order to avoid heavy ground is a risky approach from this perspective. Nicky playing with fire, or his those marbles he hasn't already lost.

Ahh right , the last 20 years then.

[Fatcatshat]

I’d say going back 20 years is more than fair, personally I would pretty much disregard anything older than that for the purpose of trends anyway, or at least give them far less of a weighting.

Times have changed/training methods have changed, I’d say the statistical relevance of older results/trends diminishes considerably over time

[Nortons who]

The Gaulstats trend referenced above, about Heavy ground is something I have kept track of since it was first mentioned a few years ago.

For info, this Century ie the last 20 runnings of the GC there have been 84 horses which have run in the GC that have run on ground during the season described as Heavy. All 84 have lost, so its a potential negative trend for the following 15 GC entries in 2021

Allaho
Battleoverdoyen
Black Op
Bristol De Mai
Burrows Saint
Imperial Aura
Itchy Feet
Lostintranslation
Melon
Mister Malarkey
Royal Pagaille
Spyglass Hill
The Conditional
Magic of Light
Shattered Love

Note : The above is obviously only based on runs to date this season.

However, the Cheltenham Trials Cotswold Chase this Saturday if run on Heavy Ground could then also bring the likes of Santini, Saint Calvados, Yorkhill, Lake View Lad, Native River and Lord Du Mesnil, into the above list.

[robith]

Hendo is a wasteman

[Istabraq]

Nortons who Good research that, though fair to say the main contenders appear (until now) to have avoided heavy ground but as you say the next two weeks could change all that...

[Rooster Booster]

May hay while the sun shines with this trend because it will soon be next to impossible to avoid heavy ground unless we stop fucking the planet up. Apologies temporarily stepped on my Soap box. Have put it back in the cupboard now.

[Garrison Savannah]

Taking into account first time runners have a good record in this, the fact that all his best work in last year’s Ryanair came at the end of the race, and Whittington’s comments that as long as he gets the trip in the Cotswold, this will be his target....I am going to have a small play at 50/1 with cash out on Saint Calvados.

[Priceiskey]

Santini in Cotswold if it’s not called off.

[Run4Home]

Santini in Cotswold if it’s not called off.

He knows it'll be called off so will get fees back if declares and likely if goes ahead will just be a NR.

Saves Nicky some abuse about running horses