Gold Cup 2021

[Lobos]

They're not mutually exclusive.... I'm getting quite excited, but see why he's opposable.

What we'll probably see naturally play out, is the people who have big prices on him liking him, those that don't are aware of those prices on here and therefore would find it even harder to be at the price he is now.... creating more of a gap than there is.... when in reality, most people who haven't backed him, would want the 75/1+ slips, and most people that have backed him would admit they wouldn't fancy him at whatever he is now?


A few years back (which I have mentioned recently so apologies for repeating) I would not have entertained a novice winning the Gold Cup. Since then, Coneygree and Thistlecrack's King George win have completely changed my mind (duh!).... a horse on the up, in form, should take their chance while the going is good and the curve is on an upward trajectory... I know full well when I started out I'd have been firmly in the camp saying he's not good enough, not shown it etc etc, but enough horses have 'surprised' me in this race and made me look stupid for me to ever get that dogmatic about it again.


Can't wait for Percy to pick him up after the last

Agree. Get Shishkin in the Champion Chase and Envoi in the GC......

[Brital]

Think you’re correct on all those points Kev.

But you forgot those of us on the 28/1 any race vouchers, who just want him to trot round in the NHC before picking off Galvin

[Lobos]

Think you’re correct on all those points Kev.

But you forgot those of us on the 28/1 any race vouchers, who just want him to trot round in the NHC before picking off Galvin

Galvin is being aimed at the GC next year so RP would struggle against him.........send him to the easier race Venitia......the GC ! I just made the up BTW but , you never know......

[Halffat1]

They're not mutually exclusive.... I'm getting quite excited, but see why he's opposable.

What we'll probably see naturally play out, is the people who have big prices on him liking him, those that don't are aware of those prices on here and therefore would find it even harder to be at the price he is now.... creating more of a gap than there is.... when in reality, most people who haven't backed him, would want the 75/1+ slips, and most people that have backed him would admit they wouldn't fancy him at whatever he is now?


A few years back (which I have mentioned recently so apologies for repeating) I would not have entertained a novice winning the Gold Cup. Since then, Coneygree and Thistlecrack's King George win have completely changed my mind (duh!).... a horse on the up, in form, should take their chance while the going is good and the curve is on an upward trajectory... I know full well when I started out I'd have been firmly in the camp saying he's not good enough, not shown it etc etc, but enough horses have 'surprised' me in this race and made me look stupid for me to ever get that dogmatic about it again.


Can't wait for Percy to pick him up after the last

Absolutely agree, if I had the foresight to have the big prices I might be more optimistic of his chance. I don't though (not unusual) so I am left in a semi unbiased position about whether or not I think he has a chance in the race. Your argument regarding both Coneygree and Thistlecrack is valid but in both those cases those were already proven graded horses, achieving their ratings in graded races.

[punterorplonker]

You all may know that my favourite horse is the giant bolster obvoiusly and I was on the conditional big time in the utima.

I am on here at 100/1 and 66/1 again today.
When he wins on saturday at 14/1.now only 8-10s available.
What price even if he places on Saturday...

Yes please Mr Bridgwater

[Rooster Booster]

Absolutely agree, if I had the foresight to have the big prices I might be more optimistic of his chance. I don't though (not unusual) so I am left in a semi unbiased position about whether or not I think he has a chance in the race. Your argument regarding both Coneygree and Thistlecrack is valid but in both those cases those were already proven graded horses, achieving their ratings in graded races.

It is true that the absence of a negative does not make a positive. But it is equally true that the absence of a positive does not make a negative. For example (e.g not I.e.) the fact that RP has not run round Cheltenham means that this is an unknown. It is possible he could improve for it, it is possible it might not suit or it is possible it is simply neutral. Too many horses imo are essentially judged guilty by the absence of fact or the absence of a positive data point..... assuming negative intent if you like. I am quite surprised that we aren’t all simply seeing the possibility here and embracing it. That doesn’t mean backing RP nor does it mean considering him value at his current price. It simply means allowing ourselves to be excited about the possibility. For me that’s the secret sauce of this great sport. Sometimes we can be too judgemental of horses that do not tick certain boxes or fit a certain profile or do exactly what we expect them to do that we are in danger of squeezing the romantic and exciting elements out of this amazing sport. How many of us back more winners than losers. Personally I get many more things wrong than I do right. That has taught me to see the possibility in things particularly when I have little or no evidence to the contrary. I have no idea whether he deserves his rating, I have no idea whether he will be effective around Cheltenham. I have no idea whether he will be as effective on faster ground. It is this ignorance I have that makes me love this sport so much and I for one am keeping my fingers crossed that his connections do not take a negative intent view of the absence of data and embrace everything that is good about this sport. If they do he will line up in the GC giving the majority of us the potential to be wrong.

[Spectre]

Only one or two think he's got a really good chance of giving the FAV a race.
And one of them was adamant he wasn't going to run here at all, and is the head of a secret and sinister crime organisation.

That made me laugh out loud!

When you see me do you picture Christopher Lee or a just bald bloke with a white pussy!

[Quevega]

It is true that the absence of a negative does not make a positive. But it is equally true that the absence of a positive does not make a negative. For example (e.g not I.e.) the fact that RP has not run round Cheltenham means that this is an unknown. It is possible he could improve for it, it is possible it might not suit or it is possible it is simply neutral. Too many horses imo are essentially judged guilty by the absence of fact or the absence of a positive data point..... assuming negative intent if you like. I am quite surprised that we aren’t all simply seeing the possibility here and embracing it. That doesn’t mean backing RP nor does it mean considering him value at his current price. It simply means allowing ourselves to be excited about the possibility. For me that’s the secret sauce of this great sport. Sometimes we can be too judgemental of horses that do not tick certain boxes or fit a certain profile or do exactly what we expect them to do that we are in danger of squeezing the romantic and exciting elements out of this amazing sport. How many of us back more winners than losers. Personally I get many more things wrong than I do right. That has taught me to see the possibility in things particularly when I have little or no evidence to the contrary. I have no idea whether he deserves his rating, I have no idea whether he will be effective around Cheltenham. I have no idea whether he will be as effective on faster ground. It is this ignorance I have that makes me love this sport so much and I for one am keeping my fingers crossed that his connections do not take a negative intent view of the absence of data and embrace everything that is good about this sport. If they do he will line up in the GC giving the majority of us the potential to be wrong.

Good point, well made. - except for the lack of paragraphs.

Royale Pagaille's sire Blue Bresil has been responsible for very few hurdlers and chasers under rules so far, with only 15 ever jumping a fence.

The 2 highest rated of those have won at the Cheltenham Festival. And at the track on other occasions also. - This is probably a pretty good ratio.

Le Prezien & Ibis du Rheu.

I think both achieved their best official and RPR ratings at Cheltenham also, which is kind of to be expected but encouraging.

His progeny, also show no real trend for needing heavy ground either.

Ibis won his Cheltenham races on Good ground, Le Prezien on Soft.

There is also no discernible clues in Pagaille's action that would give concerns over his ability on quicker ground.

The issue is simply going to be his ability to probably have to go along at a slightly quicker pace than he's been use to.

[Quevega]

That made me laugh out loud!

When you see me do you picture Christopher Lee or a just bald bloke with a white pussy!

You don't want me picturing you, trust me.
My imagination knows no bounds.

[Rooster Booster]

Good point, well made. - except for the lack of paragraphs.

Royale Pagaille's sire Blue Bresil has been responsible for very few hurdlers and chasers under rules so far, with only 15 ever jumping a fence.

The 2 highest rated of those have won at the Cheltenham Festival. And at the track on other occasions also. - This is probably a pretty good ratio.

Le Prezien & Ibis du Rheu.

I think both achieved their best official and RPR ratings at Cheltenham also, which is kind of to be expected but encouraging.

His progeny, also show no real trend for needing heavy ground either.

Ibis won his Cheltenham races on Good ground, Le Prezien on Soft.

There is also no discernible clues in Pagaille's action that would give concerns over his ability on quicker ground.

The issue is simply going to be his ability to probably have to go along at a slightly quicker pace than he's been use to.

See that’s why I passed English lit and flunked English language.

Feedback absorbed and embraced

[Halffat1]

Absolutely agree, if I had the foresight to have the big prices I might be more optimistic of his chance. I don't though (not unusual) so I am left in a semi unbiased position about whether or not I think he has a chance in the race. Your argument regarding both Coneygree and Thistlecrack is valid but in both those cases those were already proven graded horses, achieving their ratings in graded races.

Seems to be some consensus I am being negative. I suppose I am but to be clear I am not negative about the horse as he is clearly a quality horse and one who will most likely take his chance in the Gold Cup, but my personal opinion is that he would have a much better chance elsewhere. I believe the trend (please feel free to correct me) is the last horse to win the Gold Cup without a G1 on the CV was Cool Dawn and horses stepping into the Gold Cup from handicap efforts don't have a much better record (Bob's Worth in recent years). Of course these kind of trends are there to be broken (Cool Dawn did it why can't Royal Pagaille?) but for me if I can justify why these trends exist then I can applaud the ambition of connections and those with super prices but will avoid myself.

[Kevloaf]

Seems to be some consensus I am being negative. I suppose I am but to be clear I am not negative about the horse as he is clearly a quality horse and one who will most likely take his chance in the Gold Cup, but my personal opinion is that he would have a much better chance elsewhere. I believe the trend (please feel free to correct me) is the last horse to win the Gold Cup without a G1 on the CV was Cool Dawn and horses stepping into the Gold Cup from handicap efforts don't have a much better record (Bob's Worth in recent years). Of course these kind of trends are there to be broken (Cool Dawn did it why can't Royal Pagaille?) but for me if I can justify why these trends exist then I can applaud the ambition of connections and those with super prices but will avoid myself.

I think it's about the style/manner of the win in the handicap.

If a horse wins a handicap like that, they're graded class? The trend is correct for a reason, however you'll always get anomolies?

Frodon has probably shown he's an anomoly from handicaps, winning them off top weight AND bridging the gap to Grade 1's is very rare....

Ruling out horses because the majority don't is fair enough, but we're not talking about The Conditional or Cepage or Oldgrangewood, we're talking about a horse that's blitzed a handicap, so the trend needs to be considered?



I've probably not worded that very well

[Rooster Booster]

Seems to be some consensus I am being negative. I suppose I am but to be clear I am not negative about the horse as he is clearly a quality horse and one who will most likely take his chance in the Gold Cup, but my personal opinion is that he would have a much better chance elsewhere. I believe the trend (please feel free to correct me) is the last horse to win the Gold Cup without a G1 on the CV was Cool Dawn and horses stepping into the Gold Cup from handicap efforts don't have a much better record (Bob's Worth in recent years). Of course these kind of trends are there to be broken (Cool Dawn did it why can't Royal Pagaille?) but for me if I can justify why these trends exist then I can applaud the ambition of connections and those with super prices but will avoid myself.

I think if we want to attract new people into racing and for it to be seen in any way as a sport then we have to fight for the stars of the sport to operate at the highest possible level and pit their wits against each other.

The vast majority of sports give you no choice as you are graded or banded according to ability and your ability determines your opponent. This is done to ensure competition and competition ensures interest and appeal. The more racing allows for or worse still advocates reduced competition by providing easier options the less viable it becomes as a going concern imo.

A sport that allows a 166 rated opponent to compete against vastly inferior opponents has an intrinsic problem that will forever limit its ability to fully reach its potential imo. As the poster child of the NH season The Cheltenham festival should be the olympics not the fa cup.

[Joleg]

This is reminiscent of 2012 with the Giant Bolster, heading into the Cotswold Chase with an OR of 145, smashing Poquelin to get up to 160 and then getting outstayed by Synchronised in the GC.

IMO, I doubt very much whether history will repeat itself with The Conditional.

I might be wrong but to me he just doesn't look the type to shoulder 11:10 in the GC against the likes of ABP and Minella Indo, whereas the Bolster appeared to be a real bruiser heavyweight who came close but not quite close enough.

Also pocket talking, I would rather see The Conditional in the Ultima !

Totally agree with this, and from a different pocket i hope you're right

[Middle_Of_March]

Agree. Get Shishkin in the Champion Chase and Envoi in the GC......

Whilst it obviously wouldn’t happen and would kill pretty much all of our good long term multiples on here... that would at least mean we’d never have to here the phrases ‘2022’, ‘betting calculator’ and ‘550/1’ ever again.