Gold Cup 2021

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm not disputing that.

I was just putting forward my opinion that your logic about the jockey not riding him isn't a factor.



You're not on, you don't like him... fair enough.... the form is easy enough to knock him with, your other point wasn't

I don't not like the horse, I just dont see the case that he has shown he is gold cup quality yet which his current price suggests he is

After all he is a similar price to proven grade 1 performers a plus tard, minella indo, champ and santini

Think hed have a very good chance in the NHC

but his general odds for the gold cup of 8/1-10/1 (365 12s) is an awful price

[Nortons who]

As per Racing Post, Charlie Deutsch playing up the talk by saying RP wouldn't be out of his death in the GC and has no qualms about him going for the race.

He just wants the ride

[Kevloaf]

I don't not like the horse, I just dont see the case that he has shown he is gold cup quality yet which his current price suggests he is

After all he is a similar price to proven grade 1 performers a plus tard, minella indo, champ and santini

Think hed have a very good chance in the NHC

but his general odds for the gold cup of 8/1-10/1 (365 12s) is an awful price

Yep, all fair enough.

I haven't seen anyone say he's value at the current prices.

Again, my point was literally about your jockey comment.

[jack1092]

He just wants the ride

JC said on RTV today he'd likely be back on next time anyway.

[charlie]

Venetia Williams

“A lot of people probably have unfinished business with a race like the Gold Cup,” she said on Sunday. “Anyway, it’s a bit premature to be talking about that race at the moment.

“You’d have to be delighted with what he did at Haydock and the style he did it, but I do think it’s very important to put it into the context of what he beat on the day. The second-favourite was a non-runner, the third-favourite unseated before the business end of the race. The horse that finished second was well beaten in the veterans’ race earlier in the month. So let’s not get carried away.”

Without ruling the GC out this hardly screams 'we're gonna have a go' does it?

[Spectre]

They know how good he is. They can make the same assessments that I did beforehand, and on top of that they have the added benefit of knowing how he works at home.

And it doesn't matter what you beat, the manner of victory was pretty obvious, and what the clock says doesn't lie. The fact that his two main rivals didn't compete doesn't make his win worse, it just means they weren't there to get trounced, becuse nothing either have ever done on a racecourse is even remotely close to his level of ability.

By comparison RPR's say that only Al Boum Photo has put in a better performance so far this season, but I have those two ratings in complete reverse. Of course some will argue that ratings and time are irrelevant. 'I go by what my eyes tell me'. I'll just say 'each to their own'. I made the case from the Kempton run based on both, and they weren't wrong then, and I don't expect them to be in March.

Would I be bullish enough to say he beats Al Boum Photo? No. But I would be bullish enough to say that the ratings I now have for him would usually be good enough to place in most recent Gold Cups. Also good enough to win two of the last six. Tellingly he is also on a sharp upward curve, and who knows where it ends. The one thing he hasn't done yet is do it at Cheltenham. Chacun Pour Soi anyone!

I'll say it. I actually do think 8-12/1 behind Al Boum Photo will look very good value when we all have the benefit of hindsite after the race itself. I'd certainly have him clear second favourite, when he actually has Santini, A Plus Tard, and Minella Indo ahead of him in the market. Champ is the same price and hasn't even seen a racecourse yet!

[nortonscoin200]

Will he wont he - the Royale Pagaille saga....

Ricci's racing manager Joe Chambers in today's Daily Mirror: "It would have been great if the two Sams had been able to complete the course as we would have learned an awful lot more than we actually have.

"We put him in for the Gold Cup opportunistically at the time because it was closing when the travel ban came in.

"We just thought for the sake of the initial entry fee we could always take him out at the next forfeit stage on February 9 if his next run didn't go according to plan."

Chambers told Luck on Sunday: "We'll see what the handicapper says on Tuesday as to what the substance of the form is.

"If he goes up 10lbs or so you could count on one hand the chasers rated higher than him. I know he's a novice but it's his third season as a novice and that was his 11th chase. Champ has only had three or four in comparison."

[Quevega]

Will he wont he - the Royale Pagaille saga....

Ricci's racing manager Joe Chambers in today's Daily Mirror: "It would have been great if the two Sams had been able to complete the course as we would have learned an awful lot more than we actually have.

"We put him in for the Gold Cup opportunistically at the time because it was closing when the travel ban came in.

"We just thought for the sake of the initial entry fee we could always take him out at the next forfeit stage on February 9 if his next run didn't go according to plan."

Chambers told Luck on Sunday: "We'll see what the handicapper says on Tuesday as to what the substance of the form is.

"If he goes up 10lbs or so you could count on one hand the chasers rated higher than him. I know he's a novice but it's his third season as a novice and that was his 11th chase. Champ has only had three or four in comparison."

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2021/January/24/royale-pagaille-connections-to-mull-cheltenham-options

same stuff with a bit more on ATR.

[Kevloaf]

They know how good he is. They can make the same assessments that I did beforehand, and on top of that they have the added benefit of knowing how he works at home.

And it doesn't matter what you beat, the manner of victory was pretty obvious, and what the clock says doesn't lie. The fact that his two main rivals didn't compete doesn't make his win worse, it just means they weren't there to get trounced, becuse nothing either have ever done on a racecourse is even remotely close to his level of ability.

By comparison RPR's say that only Al Boum Photo has put in a better performance so far this season, but I have those two ratings in complete reverse. Of course some will argue that ratings and time are irrelevant. 'I go by what my eyes tell me'. I'll just say 'each to their own'. I made the case from the Kempton run based on both, and they weren't wrong then, and I don't expect them to be in March.

Would I be bullish enough to say he beats Al Boum Photo? No. But I would be bullish enough to say that the ratings I now have for him would usually be good enough to place in most recent Gold Cups. Also good enough to win two of the last six. Tellingly he is also on a sharp upward curve, and who knows where it ends. The one thing he hasn't done yet is do it at Cheltenham. Chacun Pour Soi anyone!

I'll say it. I actually do think 8-12/1 behind Al Boum Photo will look very good value when we all have the benefit of hindsite after the race itself. I'd certainly have him clear second favourite, when he actually has Santini, A Plus Tard, and Minella Indo ahead of him in the market. Champ is the same price and hasn't even seen a racecourse yet!

Champ is an RSA winner, so despite not being seen this season, his price is somewhat justified.
A Plus Tard, a Grade 1 winner at 3m this season.
Santini a close 2nd last year...


I can see why "the bookies" can't make him 2nd favourite.


It's so exciting.

[Muswell]

Cotswold Chase entries https://twitter.com/festivalracing/s...080203270?s=21

[Spectre]

Bridgey still potentially aiming high with The Conditional.

[Willdunn99]

No Champ !!?!?

[Spectre]

I think Henderson said the Denman Chase was more likely.

[Nortons who]

Cotswold Chase entries https://twitter.com/festivalracing/s...080203270?s=21

As I mentioned in the General chat thread, the forecast from Simon Claisse for the weekend is heavy ground, so I woukd expect a few to come out and those that do run could have a gruelling experience (not ideal at this stage in my opinion).

[Kevloaf]

Bridgey still potentially aiming high with The Conditional.

I think I'll have to back him to win the bloomin' Cotswolds Chase, in case he does and goes for the Gold Cup. Hopefully be a backable E/W price.

The positive, is he clearly thinks he's a better horse than his mark.

The negative, is I might not get paid out for that