Originally posted by Lobos
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Gold Cup 2021
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Originally posted by Hardy Eustace View Posti havent done this yet. Maybe I should have more courage in my conviction. I suppose the reason I am doubting myself is because he has some top class form over 2 miles.
BUT
I watched the Ryanair again last night and, to me, A PLUS TARD lacked a bit of a turn of foot and looked almost a little bit outpaced as they turned for home, it got me wondering could this fella be a potential dark horse for the gold cup?
Would make sense to split him and Allaho - maybe he will go up and allaho will go down in trip.
Its certainly got me thinking. I would welcome any views on this (feel free to shoot me down!) - am I going mad or would a specualitve couple of quid on the exchanges be a good idea...
Think they should try up in trip myself.
but i dont own it so it's unlikely.
i was happy with 95-1
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Al Boum Photo @ 6/1 makes sense. Completely understand why some will take this and see it as a good price. Very hard to take anything away from a dual GC winner that's trained by Willie Mullins. At 8 going on 9 ABP should be in the prime of his life for a third bid, so completely understand the appeal. If I was being picky (IMO you have to be with short priced favs this far out), I don't think its unfair to say he didn't win the deepest renewal in 2019 (plenty of under performers), and won this year in a bunched finish with Santini coming back at him. I am splitting hairs and he clearly deserves to be favourite, but I wouldn't take 6/1 at this stage. I'd far rather stick 1 point each on LIT (16/1), TOTG (14/1) and Champ (12/1), than have 3pts on ABP @ 6/1. It's marginal because all three haven't won the GC let alone twice, but with injuries, bad luck stories and many months till Cheltenham, its a long season and I'd sooner take those 3 vs the top of the market.
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My opinion is he could of done with another run before cheltenham..think henry de brom was sure of a better run aswell..if hes in the ryanair this year hell be my main bullet! But i agree if anyone is more suited to this race from CP it is allaho so id imagine APT might go for the champion chase and have a very good chance there
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Al Boum Photo deserves to be favourite as we know the prep is likely to be the same. So fits in well with the three timer attempt.
I've only backed some outsider so far. That may go elsewhere. Or be proven to be not good enough.
But they are all entitled to improve, given their age's and number of runs.
A Plus Tard 95-1
Copperhead 110-1
Itchy Feet 130-1
But the two I really like are Minella Indo & Allaho.
Both have been lightly campaigned and have loads of scope for improvement.
The theory of them not being able to stay the trip (especially around Allaho) is probably flawed. Although I accept he looks a tad keen at times.
But the RSA on it's own was sufficient to convince me that both these horses are worthy contenders for this race next March.
They just killed each other in this race and went too quick in patches.
They'd have said Might Bite didn't stay had Whisper nailed him on the line.
If you go too fast, too early, then your finish to the race is going to be slower. And that's all that happened in the RSA to Minella Indo & Allaho.
Champ was flattered/lucky a little bit and was fortunate to get up really, after a scruffy race.
Allaho made a mistake at the second last, and minella at the last, and then they raced together up the run in, only to then drift apart under pressured, for Champ to run straight through the middle.
I much preferred Champ when he was ridden more positively in the Dipper. He needs a jockey to boss him more. Once he gets serious he looks a much better jumper and racehorse. Like the two races he won after looking like losing.
I could not rule Champ out, but the room for improvement has not got quite as much scope as the other two for me.Last edited by Quevega; 27 September 2020, 01:02 PM.
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Originally posted by Quevega View PostAl Boum Photo deserves to be favourite as we know the prep is likely to be the same. So fits in well with the three timer attempt.
But the two I really like are Minella Indo & Allaho.
Both have been lightly campaigned and have loads of scope for improvement.
The theory of them not being able to stay the trip (especially around Allaho) is probably flawed. Although I accept he looks a tad keen at times.
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Do we think Faugheen will be aimed at the Gold Cup this year?
I am fairly confident he probably wouldn’t win or even run but might be a small chance he does run?
Fact they kept him in training and sent him over fences at 12 says a lot to me about the horses enthusiasm for racing. I get the age angle etc and absolutely everything would be against him but wasn’t long ago we were talking of an NHC novice chase bid and he is a 3m ptp winner.
A better jump in the Marsh at the second last was it, he could have won that race. A potential step up might be on the cards.
I know this seems crazy, he isn’t priced anywhere but would be some story wouldn’t it? If I got a silly enough price for him I’d maybe just do it for the story alone. Could campaign him like ABP give him a 3m race as prep then gear him up for it.
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I fancy the de bromhead trained and Barry Moloney owned pair, minella indo and Monalee. Monalee could have won last year,was in a great position until about 5 out when he was slow at one, ABP took his position and Monalee was always chasing after that but ran on well. I think Minella Indo was the best horse in the RSA last year and Blackmore can be attributed some of the blame for the defeat. Got caught in a battle too far out with Allaho and also steadied into the last for a slow jump when she could have gone for one and landed with momentum putting the race to bed. In her defence she probably thought she only needed to pop it as she had the other horse beat. He idled badly on the run in also. Def the horse to take out of the race for me.
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Monalee surprised me by staying the trip as well as he did but there’s more than just him to take from the race, Santini for starters was the winner if the lollipop was 10 yards closer the town centre.
Always the same in October but assuming they all stay fit this renewal looks to be special, unlike a few in here I’m of the view the front 3 in the RSA can all win staying open G1s and add strength to an already deep division...
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View PostDo we think Faugheen will be aimed at the Gold Cup this year?
I am fairly confident he probably wouldn’t win or even run but might be a small chance he does run?
Fact they kept him in training and sent him over fences at 12 says a lot to me about the horses enthusiasm for racing. I get the age angle etc and absolutely everything would be against him but wasn’t long ago we were talking of an NHC novice chase bid and he is a 3m ptp winner.
A better jump in the Marsh at the second last was it, he could have won that race. A potential step up might be on the cards.
I know this seems crazy, he isn’t priced anywhere but would be some story wouldn’t it? If I got a silly enough price for him I’d maybe just do it for the story alone. Could campaign him like ABP give him a 3m race as prep then gear him up for it.
He isn't a horse to back ante post though, 50/1 would still be skinny. Maybe on the exchanges you could make it worthwhile?
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