Gold Cup 2021

[Spectre]

I'm curious whether Gigi will be tempted to step Samcro up to do the job they bought him to do, or whether they'll stick to the Ryanair after his Marsh win. Because of the failed and wasted second year over hurdles he'll be 9 next March in his first 'open' season over fences, so surely this will be his only realistic chance of winning the big one. On that basis his price looks too big. Gordon already has Delta Work and Presenting Percy for the race, but O'Leary would presumably over-rule his trainer if he wanted to go that way. Particularly as they allowed Elliott to mess up with his aborted Champion Hurdle campaign.

It's possible that they've reassessed, and now have him down as a speedier type that wants the intermediate trip rather than a proper stamina test. But the Gold Cup is probably a 'one shot' deal for him and the following year will be too late, so despite him being generally 10's for the Ryanair and 25's for the Gold Cup I'd say that's maybe not a genuine reflection of which race he may turn up in. I think Elliott could perhaps be pursuaded anyway, as he'll presumably have Envoi Allen for the race the following season who'll be easily the stable number one hope by then.

I already have him backed for both races as the prudent thing to do, and I'll re-asses as the season progresses, but I thought it was perhaps worth highlighting my thinking.

[Lobos]

I'm curious whether Gigi will be tempted to step Samcro up to do the job they bought him to do, or whether they'll stick to the Ryanair after his Marsh win. Because of the failed year they wasted over hurdles he'll be 9 next March in his first 'open' season, so surely this will be his only realistic chance of winning the big one. On that basis his price looks too big. Gordon already has Delta Work and Presenting Percy for the race, but O'Leary would presumably over-rule his trainer if he wanted to go that way. Particularly as they allowed Elliott to mess up with his aborted Champion Hurdle campaign.

It's possible that they've reassessed, and now have him down as a speedier type that wants the intermediate trip rather than a proper stamina test. But the Gold Cup is probably a 'one shot' deal for him and the following year will be too late, so despite him being generally 10's for the Ryanair and 25's for the Gold Cup I'd say that's maybe not a genuine reflection of which race he may turn up in. I think Elliott could perhaps be pursuaded anyway, as he'll presumably have Envoi Allen for the race the following season who'll be easily the stable number one hope by then.

I already have him backed for both races as the prudent thing to do, and I'll re-asses as the season progresses, but I thought it was perhaps worth highlighting my thinking.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if he took in the GC. He certainly looked to stay alright in the JLT and that's a great prep for the Blue Riband.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Like Allaho, I think Samcro will be given the opportunity to show hes a Gold Cup horse. If he doesn't cut it, they can always drop back to the intermediate trip.

[Spectre]

As a younger horse Cheveley may be happy to drop back in trip with Allaho, with the following season still feasible for he Gold Cup. They'll have Envoi Allen by then so perhaps they might actually think longer term and aim A Plus Tard at the Champion Chase, Allaho at the Ryanair for both this season and next, with Envoi Allen complimenting them in the Gold Cup next season. If you were Cheveley that would be quite a neat fit you'd think.

I think more likely will happen, based on what Willie and Henry want for their horses, Allaho will go for the Gold Cup, and A Plus Tard will try and put an out of character performance behind him and have another crack at the Ryanair. Truthfully though, I wouldn't be confident where either horse would go, and as a consequence they've barely featured in my multiples.

[Ray]

I had A Plus Tard as my main starting point for the ryanair this year when i started my ante post work..i really do beleive thats his perfect trip, 1 more run inbetween would of been bang on for cheltenham, i said to my pals this year on the thursday if its not this year 100% next year, he didnt run well this year but he was still up there

[Saxon Warrior]

I had A Plus Tard as my main starting point for the ryanair this year when i started my ante post work..i really do beleive thats his perfect trip, 1 more run inbetween would of been bang on for cheltenham, i said to my pals this year on the thursday if its not this year 100% next year, he didnt run well this year but he was still up there

Agreed, he is only a 6yo. Plenty of upside to his Ryanair chances, he’s performed to a high standard at the last two Festivals.

[ComplyOrDie]

Wouldn't be surprised at all if he took in the GC. He certainly looked to stay alright in the JLT and that's a great prep for the Blue Riband.

What a peculiar comment.

Been 10 runnings of the race (JLT/Marsh) and no horse has gone on to win a Gold Cup from it. Great prep?

Better off going Ryanair, on the limited information we have from the JLT/Marsh.

[Lobos]

What a peculiar comment.

Been 10 runnings of the race (JLT/Marsh) and no horse has gone on to win a Gold Cup from it. Great prep?

Better off going Ryanair, on the limited information we have from the JLT/Marsh.

Damn, and everyone keeps saying it's a great prep for Envoi as well. Peculiar.

[ComplyOrDie]

Damn, and everyone keeps saying it's a great prep for Envoi as well. Peculiar.

Everyone?

[Lobos]

Everyone?

That is a pretty damning stat for anyone supporting Envoi going to the Gold Cup via the Marsh.

[Craigy14]

I wouldn’t say so, 10 runnings surely isn’t enough to doubt it?!

Plus we all know stats are there to be broken.

Also I haven’t checked but I’m sure there will have been a good few runners done it, Lit immediately springs to mind, so the path isn’t a negative imo.

Edit - quick check Vautour would have been but for the switch to the Ryanair, Sir Des Champs second, Yorkhill if he wasn’t a nutter surely would have been Gold Cup bound One day. Route certainly not a negative.

If the horse is good enough it will win the GC just a matter of time.

[Saxon Warrior]

I wouldn’t say so, 10 runnings surely isn’t enough to doubt it?!

Plus we all know stats are there to be broken.

Also I haven’t checked but I’m sure there will have been a good few runners done it, Lit immediately springs to mind, so the path isn’t a negative imo.

Edit - quick check Vautour would have been but for the switch to the Ryanair, Sir Des Champs second, Yorkhill if he wasn’t a nutter surely would have been Gold Cup bound One day. Route certainly not a negative.

If the horse is good enough it will win the GC just a matter of time.

LIT went to Aintree over 3M1F and won at Group 1 as a Novice, which I suppose Envoi Allen could do post-Marsh (if that is his Festival plan) to find out about running over 3M before starting his whole prep for the 3M2F Gold Cup the following season.

[Craigy14]

LIT went to Aintree over 3M1F and won at Group 1 as a Novice, which I suppose Envoi Allen could do post-Marsh (if that is his Festival plan) to find out about running over 3M before starting his whole prep for the 3M2F Gold Cup the following season.

Yes true, my comment was more in reply to the route being a negative than winners Saxon.

Plenty have went from the JLT/Marsh to Gold Cup and I firmly believe if one is good enough it will win it soon enough. Certainly wouldn’t dismiss a horse for a future Gold Cup because they are being aimed at the Marsh.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not convinced there is a 'Great prep' for a Gold Cup (from a previous festival run), like Lobos alluded too.

Last ten runnings look as follows:

2020 - Al Boum Photo - Gold Cup Winner prior year

2019 - Al Boum Photo - Fell in the RSA, when looking held in 3rd

2018 - Native River - 3rd in prior years Gold Cup

2017 - Sizing John - 2nd in the Arkle the previous season

2016 - Don Cossack - 3rd in Ryanair previous season (the route I suspect Samcro will take)

2015 - Coneygree - Had never run at a Cheltenham Festival prior to the win

2014 - Lord Windermere - Won the RSA the previous season

2013 - Bobs Worth - Won the RSA the previous season

2012 - Synchronised - No run at the festival the prior season, fell in a Pertemps 3 seasons before

2011 - Long Run - 3rd in the RSA the previous season

This would obviously point to the RSA being the logical stepping stone (for any future Gold Cup contender), however, I think since Lord Windermere you can probably take the stats and do whatever the hell you like with them, because you've had a follow up winner (not been done since 2004), a novice, an Arkle placed horse, a Ryanair placed horse and a returning contender, all go on to Gold Cup glory, and I'd imagine the stats/trends were not very much in any of their favours.

I'll stick by there not being a particlar 'Great prep' for the race, but would also concede that it would be difficult to find a negative in any prep at all, such are the results in recent seasons.

[Istabraq]

I agree CoD there’s little by way of solid trends to help find a Gold Cup winner but one angle that was mentioned at a preview evening a few years ago by Davy Russell was to avoid any horse that had run (completed) on official heavy ground during the course of the season.
He was of the opinion very deep ground can bottom a horse and because they generally run in top races they’ll be going at championship pace.
Doesn’t help us from an ante post perspective but should be of help on raceday...