Gold Cup 2021

[Lobos]

I get the argument for ABP but it is usually foolish to become so fixed on/stubborn about one horse you don’t see the alternatives.
Each to their own but I’m not sure declaring any race a one horse race in August is sensible...

You are correct. Anything can happen. But I always have 1/2 races a year where I pump on one horse only in a race and Al Boum is one of them this time. Clearly not the way to go to guarantee a profit but that's not me. For me, Al Boum is an unbelievable price.

[Istabraq]

We all go different ways Lobos but I think the most successful punters are those who take a view, review their view, and are not afraid to change their position based on new information available.
Any of the RSA horses come out and slam G1 fields would surely have to be considered credible Gold Cup contenders no ?

[Lobos]

We all go different ways Lobos but I think the most successful punters are those who take a view, review their view, and are not afraid to change their position based on new information available.
Any of the RSA horses come out and slam G1 fields would surely have to be considered credible Gold Cup contenders no ?

Absolutely. All I'm saying is I don't expect any of them to improve past a dual champion at the top of his game, in his prime who shows no sign of regression. He is on the summit waiting for someone to Knock him down. Now is not the time imo. Again, there is no need to look beyond him at this time. No need at all. He should be 3/1 tops. I don't understand why he hasn't been smashed at his current price even 29 weeks out.

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely. All I'm saying is I don't expect any of them to improve past a dual champion at the top of his game, in his prime who shows no sign of regression. He is on the summit waiting for someone to Knock him down. Now is not the time imo. Again, there is no need to look beyond him at this time. No need at all. He should be 3/1 tops. I don't understand why he hasn't been smashed at his current price even 29 weeks out.

That post sums up so well why you shouldn't have anyone take your posts too seriously

[Hurricane fly]

History tells us he is not going to run this calendar year, why would you hoover up prices in July and August that will be there in November

[Lobos]

That post sums up so well why you shouldn't have anyone take your posts too seriously

So why would you put someone off hoovering up 6/1 about a dual Gold Cup winner who imo is likely to have further improvement to come . He's trained by a wizard of a trainer and will again be given the best prep possible to make it 3 wins in a row. Why shouldn't anyone take that seriously?? Tell everyone who they should be backing at current odds. Me included.

[Lobos]

History tells us he is not going to run this calendar year, why would you hoover up prices in July and August that will be there in November

Not a chance 6/1 will be available in November.

[Middle_Of_March]

So why would you put someone off hoovering up 6/1 about a dual Gold Cup winner who imo is likely to have further improvement to come . He's trained by a wizard of a trainer and will again be given the best prep possible to make it 3 wins in a row. Why shouldn't anyone take that seriously?? Tell everyone who they should be backing at current odds. Me included.

Surely it’s possible to be of the opinion that there’s no horse in the race who’s a definite winner to the level where you proclaim that you won’t even consider looking at other horses. I find that, in August the year before, crazy. Especially considering the RSA winner could be a superstar himself and Toppfthegame coming back from injury could also be top class. Plus Santini was only just beaten by ABP this year with a bit of bad luck arguably too.

It’s clearly not a 1 horse race as you seem to be claiming which is the point most of us are making.

[Lobos]

Surely it’s possible to be of the opinion that there’s no horse in the race who’s a definite winner to the level where you proclaim that you won’t even consider looking at other horses. I find that, in August the year before, crazy. Especially considering the RSA winner could be a superstar himself and Toppfthegame coming back from injury could also be top class. Plus Santini was only just beaten by ABP this year with a bit of bad luck arguably too.

It’s clearly not a 1 horse race as you seem to be claiming which is the point most of us are making.

Not saying it's a 1 horse race for everyone. Just that at 6/1 ABP just shouldn't be missed. Lap up those odds and when you are done then maybe try and find one or two as cover if you wish. I wouldn't bother but I know you guys like to have a safety net. Wasted money imo but we are all different. I think he is an absolute stand out bet at the price and it won't be around for much longer.

[Kevloaf]

So why would you put someone off hoovering up 6/1 about a dual Gold Cup winner who imo is likely to have further improvement to come . He's trained by a wizard of a trainer and will again be given the best prep possible to make it 3 wins in a row. Why shouldn't anyone take that seriously?? Tell everyone who they should be backing at current odds. Me included.

I'm not a paid tipster, so I won't be "telling" anybody anything, however what I do have is my diary posted with all my bets. I've posted up a profitable year every year since joining the forum and have now achieved 10 profitable festivals in a row. I feel that means I've at least earned some credibility to offer my opinions as I can back it up with evidence.



Stick to opinons rather than tips

[Big Bucks]

Personally cant see ABP price dropping (by november) unless all the ones at the top of the market fail miserably. As Hurricane Fly says, he won't run again this year, while his rivals probably will, they will probably go blue with ABP staying the same or maybe even drift a point or 2!

All about opinions, I'm not saying he can't win, but I think its a better and harder race than before especially if Champ, Minello Indo, Santini and TOFTG show up!

What price do you think he goes off at on the day? Do you think even when some firns go NRNB he will be shorter than 5s?

[ComplyOrDie]

I see ABP as a horse for the multiples, but won't be entertaining a single on him this far out.

It's probably the hardest race to win, I mean it took Willie (arguably the best Cheltenham Festival trainer of all time) up until two seasons back to land the race for the very first time. Of course, Willie being Willie, followed it up this season too, standard 'screw the stats/trends' from the master of Closutton. However, this second time around ABP did not seem to have a great deal in hand, and to suggest he is the only one worth backing is madness to me.

As has been noted, with a little bit of extra luck Santini would likely have run down ABP, then you have the potentials, Champ, Minella Indo, Allaho (although should be Ryanair bound ) and from the previous seasons RSA, Topofthegame.

That alone is 4-5 horses that pose a real threat. We will know more once they all start to reappear, especially with the novices heading into open company.

I think at least 2-3 of these would have to falter for ABP's price to seriously take a plunge, and obviously at this stage, I just don't see it.

[Lobos]

Personally cant see ABP price dropping (by november) unless all the ones at the top of the market fail miserably. As Hurricane Fly says, he won't run again this year, while his rivals probably will, they will probably go blue with ABP staying the same or maybe even drift a point or 2!

All about opinions, I'm not saying he can't win, but I think its a better and harder race than before especially if Champ, Minello Indo, Santini and TOFTG show up!

What price do you think he goes off at on the day? Do you think even when some firns go NRNB he will be shorter than 5s?

I think all the 6's will be gone in a few weeks. 4/1 around November. 5/2 after his run in January and 2's for the hat trick on the day. Thats regardless of what happens elsewhere. Others will inevitably shorten as well . I stand by 6/1 is an amazing price for someone who's been there and done it twice before and who , imo, they haven't really got to the bottom of yet. If he gets injured then I've done my money but I always have one (or two) that I concentrate on every year which can possibly give me a big pot of gold (and a huge amount of fun) through singles and this year doubles and he is it. I know it's not going to guarantee a profit but when they come off its a huge buzz. The rest of the races I build a portfolio like everyone else and at the moment mine mirrors most people's on here bar a few where I've gone off peak. I think by now everyone on here knows that I latch onto a horse now and again and talk it up until the cows come home. Everyone knows it's just my opinion and I'm not expecting anyone to follow me in on my thoughts. Then again, if I see what I think is a bargain out there or one that I have a hunch will go a particular route then I'm more than happy to let everyone know . That's what forums are for .

[Saxon Warrior]

I think all the 6's will be gone in a few weeks. 4/1 around November. 5/2 after his run in January and 2's for the hat trick on the day. Thats regardless of what happens elsewhere. Others will inevitably shorten as well . I stand by 6/1 is an amazing price for someone who's been there and done it twice before and who , imo, they haven't really got to the bottom of yet. If he gets injured then I've done my money but I always have one (or two) that I concentrate on every year which can possibly give me a big pot of gold (and a huge amount of fun) through singles and this year doubles and he is it. I know it's not going to guarantee a profit but when they come off its a huge buzz. The rest of the races I build a portfolio like everyone else and at the moment mine mirrors most people's on here bar a few where I've gone off peak. I think by now everyone on here knows that I latch onto a horse now and again and talk it up until the cows come home. Everyone knows it's just my opinion and I'm not expecting anyone to follow me in on my thoughts. Then again, if I see what I think is a bargain out there or one that I have a hunch will go a particular route then I'm more than happy to let everyone know . That's what forums are for .

Another "dog with a bone" horse Lobos.

thats:
Malone Road - Champion Hurdle
Al Boum Photo - Gold Cup

Are there any others that just cant be beaten, and the price is worth mopping up now?

[Lobos]

Another "dog with a bone" horse Lobos.

thats:
Malone Road - Champion Hurdle
Al Boum Photo - Gold Cup

Are there any others that just cant be beaten, and the price is worth mopping up now?

Malone Road is definitely NOT in that category. My bones this year are ABP and PTKO. Close behind are Saint Roi and Sire Du Berlais. All of those I'm certain their prices will contract massively when the proper racing begins. Nothing wrong with a bone. Last year it was Honeysuckle. Laurina the year before that (ouch) , Rathvinden in 2018, Defi in 2017..... Plenty of meat on the bones !