Gold Cup 2021

[Quevega]

The most important thing is to have one Garrison Savannah! (Opinion ....)

Quevega, I can understand if you feel like the horse had more in the tank than the winning margin suggests, it is my view that his superiority is not in fact significantly clear of the winning margins however. Not clear enough to warrant a price of 3/1 this year. We may learn more this year or we may not, time will tell as GS said.

Eireman - I have no idea where you got the idea from that I said you couldn’t like the horse? I said I didn’t - and couldn’t fathom why anyone looking at his form would land on him as a bet.
I have no idea what his table manners are like, or if he puts the toilet down after pissing in it. It’s not personal.

Not sure I was suggesting anything like what you’ve said.

[Garrison Savannah]

Milbear what you’re basically saying as far as I can make out is that you’re guessing last years novices are better than ABP?

[Carnage at Taunton]

One thing I would say the ABP and last year’s race, he looked all out to me and would have lost in another 50 yards imo

[Supermaster]

Interesting post Supermaster and welcome to the forum.
...
Royal Pagaille looks to be absolutely bouncing and the confidence that comes from this upward trajectory can often create a momentum difficult to arrest.

Thanks for your comments Milbear0. Actually I'd love RP to win but my head tells me it is horses who have Cheltenham form who do well in this race - jumping is at a premium and there are tricky and stiff fences to negotiate under pressure. Looking back I think Synchronised is the last winner not to have either Festival or good Cheltenham form, and he won the Welsh National and I consider Chepstow to be a surrogate Cheltenham. In fact you could argue Kauto Star was the last winner without Cheltenham form having fallen early in the previous year's Champion Chase - but then he did go on to win the Betfair, Tingle Creek and King George before the Gold Cup.

I do think ABP's defeat of Santini and Lost In Translation should be assessed on the form they showed going into the race rather than after the race.

[Milbear0]

Milbear what you’re basically saying as far as I can make out is that you’re guessing last years novices are better than ABP?

Interestingly enough GS the horses I’d take ABP on with are not last years novices (this years novice and last years Ryanair disappointment). I also struggle to completely rule out Frodon much as I’d like to.


The point I was making was simply that the bar set by ABP is low enough to reasonably expect an unexposed horse to progress past him, on the balance of the probability suggested by his price.

[DenmanSacre]

Thanks for your comments Milbear0. Actually I'd love RP to win but my head tells me it is horses who have Cheltenham form who do well in this race - jumping is at a premium and there are tricky and stiff fences to negotiate under pressure. Looking back I think Synchronised is the last winner not to have either Festival or good Cheltenham form, and he won the Welsh National and I consider Chepstow to be a surrogate Cheltenham. In fact you could argue Kauto Star was the last winner without Cheltenham form having fallen early in the previous year's Champion Chase - but then he did go on to win the Betfair, Tingle Creek and King George before the Gold Cup.

You could easily argue the last winner without decent Cheltenham or Festival form was ABP. Raced once at Cheltenham when falling when beat. Came back the next year and won his first GC.

[Irish2016]

One thing I would say the ABP and last year’s race, he looked all out to me and would have lost in another 50 yards imo

I’d agree with that he literally fell over the line massive to do the double be a tough ask to do the treble following the best mate blue print he might just do it

[Supermaster]

You could easily argue the last winner without decent Cheltenham or Festival form was ABP. Raced once at Cheltenham when falling when beat. Came back the next year and won his first GC.

I don't think it would have won but might well have been either 2nd or 3rd. The key thing is that ABP had experience of jumping the Cheltenham fences in a competitive race before his first Gold Cup win. Royale Pagaille has no such experience.

[Spectre]

The point I was making was simply that the bar set by ABP is low enough to reasonably expect an unexposed horse to progress past him, on the balance of the probability suggested by his price.

I've never really warmed to Al Boum Photo either. I think the problem is the lack of horses putting there hand up to suggest they've improved past him, and he's a worthy favourite at the price the way the season as worked through.

I think we were all hopeful that the next generation of Minella Indo, Allaho, and Champ were going to be the ones. They haven't shown they are for completely different reasons.

Next year we'll get Monkfish and Envoi Allen though, and we could have a repeat of the Kauto Star vs Denman era. It's hard to think a better staying chaser is going to appear on the scene to bother those two. And the current generation certainly won't.

[opatcho]

champ make me very nervous when he jumps :S lol

decent run though

[ryanh97]

Much better jumping from Champ

[DenmanSacre]

Brilliant prep. Not many in the Gold Cup could produce that level over 2m.

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought Champ jumped beautifully there at a trip that will have certainly tested it.

He goes to the Gold Cup with a chance, IMO.

[Quevega]

Champ showing exactly why the trip chatter on here is so often a load of old shite.

[FinalFurlong91]

Hes jumped much faster there

Nico was chucking him at the fences