Gold Cup 2021

[Supermaster]

Well here goes on my first substantive entry. I'm going to look at a few of the horses in current price order as per the Racing Post:

1. Al Boum Photo - Fully justified favourite. Clearly likes the course and distance. Top notch trainer/jockey combo. Excellent Tramore trial. Didn't beat much but it couldn't have been easier. Why change a winning timetable? Apart from 3 falls and the jockey taking a wrong course round a bypassed fence, only once out of the first 3 in 17 races and that was a hurdle race. Drawbacks: 1. skinny price 2. The rarity of 3 time winners 3. Shorter winning margin in 2nd win. Imo has a similar race style to Best Mate and the way it has been handled a four timer (Mullins will say nothing about this now of course) is far from impossible.

2. A Plus Tard - Ticks a lot of trend boxes, impressive in the Close Brothers 2m4f novices h'cap chase at the 2019 festival (but form didn't work out) and won a very competitive Saville's Chase last December.
But having looked at the 2020 Ryanair Chase again it was bang there but didn't make ground in the closing stages and stayed in 3rd place. I feel that a Gold Cup horse should have won that race even though it was a very good race. Finished behind Saint Calvados in the Ryanair but is a much shorter price. I also feel the Savills was a hard race. Never out of the first three in 15 races

3. Champ - No run this season yet only 8/1! Has that RSA race left its mark? It's jumping was sticky at times. Top class novice hurdler and class always shows in the end. Let's wait and see what happens in the Game Spirit Chase but currently there seems too much uncertainty about this runner. Never out of the first two except for one fall.

4. Kemboy - Excellent Irish form inc a defeat of ABP but each of its festival runs have been disappointing inc 2 Gold Cup runs. Why should this year be different? I'm sure there are examples of horses who have run badly in the Gold Cup and then won next year but usually it works out they run poorly again.

5. Royale Pagaille - Impressive in its last 3 runs on flat tracks but this is not grade 1 company. It would be great for Venetia Williams to win her first Gold Cup. Has only run on soft/heavy but that doesn't mean it can't handle good to soft. I'd like to see more experience at Cheltenham and more graded form. One to watch for the future.

6. Santini - Not the same horse this season. Was the 2020 Gold Cup run too hard a race? Before that had a great profile for a Gold Cup winner but can Henderson work a miracle in such a short time. Much uncertainty here. Never out of the first 3 before this season.

7. Minella Indo - Looked like the 2020 RSA winner before the last fence blunder but has been disappointing in its last 2 races this season. Before that excellent consistent form for the Gold Cup. If those runs can be ignored has excellent prospects but can they? Never out of the first 3 bar the last two runs. Form ties close with Allaho but Allaho is double the price. Allaho could be a good e/w bet.

8. Native River - 11-y-o but seemed to have lost none of its ability when winning the re-arranged Cotswold Chase. Acts on good to heavy so I don't think the ground conditions will bother it even if good to soft. 3 good runs in the Gold Cup and numerous other big race wins. My head says this is a live chance. Solid jumper and galloper. Has not been over raced in recent seasons. Good value.

9. Frodon - The controversial one! 6 wins out of 13 races on the course inc two wins over 3mile+. Seems to act on any going. A poor run on good ground in the April 2018 Silver Trophy was likely due to being over the top for the season. Has a definite turn of foot and jumps for fun. Hasn't always made all but that seems to be the policy now. Rather than "spitting the dummy out" if harried in front I rather think there is a simpler explanation: Frodon is inconsistent. Nicholls seemed to confirm this in his post King George interview, justifying why no run before the Gold Cup. If he's right that Frodon is "best when fresh" then this is a live chance. The Frodon and Native River take each other on and let in ABP scenario will be anticipated by their connections and races rarely go as expected. The walk in to the tape will be worth watching. Will Frodon whip round and lose his position?

Other live outsiders:
Imperial Aura - no winning form over 3m but deeply impressive when winning the 2m4f novice h'cap chase at last year's festival. Form franked by Galvin. Ryanair instead?
Saint Calvados - again no winning form over 3m but 2nd in the Ryanair and 4th in the King George makes 40/1 look attractive. May go for the Ryanair.

Shortish list: ABP, Native River, Frodon, Imperial Aura, Allaho

[Milbear0]

Interesting post Supermaster and welcome to the forum.

I think the established crop of 3milers are a pretty average bunch, and I can’t fathom the ABP fan club. Last year he beat Santini by a neck, and Lostintranslation/monalee marginally behind.

On literal form that is crap - nothing has advertised the form since. In fact quite the opposite. This year he dispatched Acapella Bourgouis in Tranmore (AB first run of the season) by 19 lengths. AB then goes on to finish 5th in the Thyestes when match fit by 22L.

ABP won the gold cup in 2019 so brings strong course form to the table.... That year he beat Annibel fly by 2L who went on to run well in the GN off 164 but hadn’t beat a horse over fences since. ABP also beat Bristol de Mai by 6L that year which comfortably represents BDM’s best gold cup showing in 3 attempts.

Of course we know from the era of best mate that you don’t have to be exceptional to win multiple gold cups, you’ve just got to be better than the rest. The current 3/1 about ABP is asserting that suggestion in my opinion, and it’s pretty short.

ABP has only been beaten once since 2019 by Kemboy at Punchestown. Kemboy has always struggled to show his best form around Cheltenham but perhaps this represents a truer level of ABP’s ability. Kemboy has shown a good level of form this season - perhaps the only staying chaser that has put 2 coherent runs together thus far but he was beaten by a rattling home A Plus Tard in the Savilles.

Given my lack of faith in the established division I am more than happy to take on the likes of ABP with APT - who is a horse which represents the much overlooked profiles of an Imperial Commander or Sizing John type.
In a muddling division like this it also pays to back a horse in rare form to continue improving past the 165-170 level which I don’t believe anything last year has attained.
Royal Pagaille looks to be absolutely bouncing and the confidence that comes from this upward trajectory can often create a momentum difficult to arrest.

RP and APT for me against the field. I am thrilled to take on ABP at the prices.

[charlie]

I think the established crop of 3milers are a pretty average bunch, and I can't fathom the ABP fan club

You cannot fathom why a lightly raced 9 year-old 2 time Gold Cup winner rated 175 has fans? You cannot understand that? Really? All for shooting at favs, picking at their form and trying to get them beat at short prices, but the above comment is just daft IMO

[Milbear0]

No Charlie I just went through all the reasons at length why I don’t think he is accurately 175 rated and don’t think he is far clear of a modest bunch.
It’s not just this time of year, I didn’t back him at the beginning of the season either!
If the handicapper was always right this betting lark would be easy and bookies wouldn’t exist.

How come your cursory response is so much shorter than my reasoning, tell me how he justifies a 175 rating? Was it his form through Santini, Acapella Bourgeois or Annabel fly that impressed you most?

[Eireman]

No Charlie I just went through all the reasons at length why I don’t think he is accurately 175 rated and don’t think he is far clear of a modest bunch.
It’s not just this time of year, I didn’t back him at the beginning of the season either!
If the handicapper was always right this betting lark would be easy and bookies wouldn’t exist.

How come your cursory response is so much shorter than my reasoning, tell me how he justifies a 175 rating? Was it his form through Santini, Acapella Bourgeois or Annabel fly that impressed you most?

You can think he is to short a price and you can take him on but to say you "cannot fathom the ABP fanclub", a multiple gold cup winner across two differently run races simply sounds silly.

I am prepared to take on Min in the Ryanair. I can outline 1000 reasons as to why. Doesn't change the fact that at the same time I am fully aware of the reasons as to why he has people that think he will win.

[Milbear0]

You can think he is to short a price and you can take him on but to say you "cannot fathom the ABP fanclub", a multiple gold cup winner across two differently run races simply sounds silly.

I am prepared to take on Min in the Ryanair. I can outline 1000 reasons as to why. Doesn't change the fact that at the same time I am fully aware of the reasons as to why he has people that think he will win.

Min is an admirable horse who has raced against, lost to and beaten some of the best horses around. ABP hasn’t. I cannot fathom the fan club. There - said it again! He is a very decent horse don’t get me wrong, and he certainly represents the best of a rum bunch but I’m keen to get him beat.

I think my post twice stated that his price was too short, and I was keen to take him on at the prices so the whole case is clearly based around value. As for the shrine that some seem to place him on - I don’t get it at all. Happy to be told what you love about the horse but winning two gold cups is only a subtitle once you look at what he beat.

I’m fine with you saying you ARE in the ABP fan club by the way, But perhaps don’t describe my post as daft or silly without attempting to refute any part of it?

Each to their own.

[Eireman]

Min is an admirable horse who has raced against, lost to and beaten some of the best horses around. ABP hasn’t. I cannot fathom the fan club. There - said it again! He is a very decent horse don’t get me wrong, and he certainly represents the best of a rum bunch but I’m keen to get him beat.

I think my post twice stated that his price was too short, and I was keen to take him on at the prices so the whole case is clearly based around value. As for the shrine that some seem to place him on - I don’t get it at all. Happy to be told what you love about the horse but winning two gold cups is only a subtitle once you look at what he beat.

I’m fine with you saying you ARE in the ABP fan club by the way, But perhaps don’t describe my post as daft or silly without attempting to refute any part of it?

Each to their own.

In your first post you say that you consider the established crop an average bunch. Last year everyone knew ABP was going tramore and then the gold cup. He was the reigning champ so lots and lots of people would have backed him. What do you become when a horse you backed wins you money? Fond of the horse is the answer.

Nobody is placing any shrine on him and FYI I am taking him on as well but fully realise a multiple gold cup winning horse is obviously going to have supporters both from people who have won money off him and people who generally just appreciate and achievement like that. It's pretty common sense stuff tbh and goes for any horse that has multiple wins at the festival in any race let alone the biggest one of all.

You also explained why you don't think he will win. You have not made any case at all as to why nobody should support the horse.

[Milbear0]

I think this has taken a peculiar turn Eireman, support who you like my friend.

[Eireman]

I think this has taken a peculiar turn Eireman, support who you like my friend.

Fully agree mate and don't knock anyone for it either would be my thinking.

[charlie]

Milbear0

How can you not fathom ABP having fans, then say 'he certainly represents the best of a rum bunch'? There's a fair and sensible form debate to be had here and I don't think one throwaway comment should derail an otherwise fair post, but it's nobody's job to refute a comment like that when the person making it thinks the horse in question is the best horse in the bloody race!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Must admit I do find it a bit confusing when people don’t fancy last year’s RSA winner cos of what the beaten horses have done since, yet The form of last year’s beaten gold cup horses is plain awful!! And that was a close finish as well.

[Quevega]

I think this has taken a peculiar turn Eireman, support who you like my friend.

I kind of agree with a lot of what you said originally.

But the one thing I don't agree upon is the lazy argument of naming the placed horses he's beaten in each of his Gold cups. It's a popular thing to do when someone is making a case, but it's a lazy element of someone's case IMO.

As this completely ignores the rest of the fields he also beat on those occasions, including multiple grade 1 winners of course.
(some used darver star as a stick to beat honeysuckle ) And Epatante

And the other point I'd make is about the Gold Cup itself, which is a unique test that some of the great chasers have not been able to be victorious in.

Al Boum Photo has shown he is up to this task, and many of his peers in this category have not.
Which, along with the lack of mileage in his legs, makes him a serious contender again this year, and possibly even next year too.

I'll be going up against him too with the same type of horses as the majority, APT, Minella Indo & Royale (probably), I have backed St Calvados also in case he does show up.
I prefer the potential improvers more often than not, so the older horses that have been here before are not for me.
But I'll have something on Al Boum Photo somehow I'm sure.

[Quevega]

Must admit I do find it a bit confusing when people don’t fancy last year’s RSA winner cos of what the beaten horses have done since, yet The form of last year’s beaten gold cup horses is plain awful!! And that was a close finish as well.

Yep, it would come as no surprise that come the big race itself that some of the novices from last season go very close.
It happens more often than not.

[Garrison Savannah]

Some horses are inclined to win by quarter of a furlong. Some just do enough. I don’t really take ABP’s beating of Santini, Anibale Fly, BDM literally. In very differently run races he did enough to finish first. You don’t get extra winnings for a horse winning by more lengths than he needs to.

Every single runner in the gold cup field has holes with which to pick. None are bombproof all have something to prove.

ABP isn’t a banker but his price in my opinion in fair. For what it’s worth Milbear, I agree with you that if there’s one to take ABP on with it’s APT - and I have backed both against the field. Conversely I couldn’t have RP with Brinks Mat money.

Opinions eh - love it!

[Milbear0]

The most important thing is to have one Garrison Savannah! (Opinion ....)

Quevega, I can understand if you feel like the horse had more in the tank than the winning margin suggests, it is my view that his superiority is not in fact significantly clear of the winning margins however. Not clear enough to warrant a price of 3/1 this year. We may learn more this year or we may not, time will tell as GS said.

Eireman - I have no idea where you got the idea from that I said you couldn’t like the horse? I said I didn’t - and couldn’t fathom why anyone looking at his form would land on him as a bet.
I have no idea what his table manners are like, or if he puts the toilet down after pissing in it. It’s not personal.