Gold Cup 2021

[Quevega]

My point is that if the owners that can afford the best prospects send them to the same trainers, the sport as a spectacle suffers, because trainers naturally try to keep them apart , Hendo does it openly as if it’s the norm, well that’s cos it is now.
when WM had all those good hurdles I mentioned his thinking would have been..... I need to find races they can win , so I cannot put them in the same races, so let’s find a way of sending them down different routes, and that’s fair enough, it’s his job to please the owners, but that don’t make it right for the sport.
Had a lot of them gone to other trainers we would no doubt have seen them take each other on a darn sight more.
that’s how it’s been going for a few years now and just carries on, and not sure it will ever stop.
Maybe when we start seeing walkovers!!???

Too many graded races, simple as that.

[archie]

Given that, of the 14 runners in the Savills Chase, Mullins trained 5, Elliott 3 and De Bromhead 3, it seems to me that the whole hypothesis is faulty in terms of the Gold Cup.

[FinalFurlong91]

Too many graded races, simple as that.

Don't say that to nicky

He seems to think there aren't any

[Istabraq]

there’s a reason that multi-million euro/pound owners like chevely park & rich Ricci have their horses in training almost exclusively in Ireland despite being based in Britain themselves

I could be wrong but aren't there beneficial tax rules with Irish breeding compared to UK ?
archie will no doubt know far more than me but I have always believed breeding taxes and VAT on training fees to be lower than in the UK hence it is more attractive for owners to have their horses bred/trained in Ireland...

[Carnage at Taunton]

Given that, of the 14 runners in the Savills Chase, Mullins trained 5, Elliott 3 and De Bromhead 3, it seems to me that the whole hypothesis is faulty in terms of the Gold Cup.

How many were there to win or be competitive? Strung out like washing.

[archie]

How many were there to win or be competitive?

Here's a clue. It was worth ?76k to the winner.

Henry had the favourite and the winner. Willie had 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.. Give it up. You're wrong.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Here's a clue. It was worth ?76k to the winner.

Henry had the favourite and the winner. Willie had 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.. Give it up. You're wrong.

Yep I am well aware of the worth of the race, just disappointed with it, maybe too many from the same yards .....affects competition

[Rooster Booster]

Here's a clue. It was worth ?76k to the winner.

Henry had the favourite and the winner. Willie had 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.. Give it up. You're wrong.

It struck me how many new members started their introduction by saying they were long time lurkers that had finally plucked up the courage to post.....I think there is an essence of a solid point being made by CAT. I am not sure I have entirely grasped his point but with a few clarifying questions I am sure we could get there, but hey why bother with that when we have seasoned respected posters helping us with such definitive and categoric judgement.

I will say hats off to Quevega. I have noticed that he has an excellent attitude to new posters and I think looks to recognise when they start that transition from relatively safe posts to more challenging ones which is probably quite a challenging transition for some.

[opatcho]

Right... time to study this race card
Out of all of the championship races, this is my least favourite. Never really caught onto the hype, and much prefer the quicker races - QMCC being the highlight for me, along with the Champ Hurdle.

My lack of enthusiasm for this race, means I lack the drive to spend time finding the winner.

Despite this, I do want to crack out of my losing streak however, I've had a quick look at the card and jesus, this is a crap race with Al Boum being a extremely strong fav

I'm giving it an hour max

[Dandrew99]

Right... time to study this race card
Out of all of the championship races, this is my least favourite. Never really caught onto the hype, and much prefer the quicker races - QMCC being the highlight for me, along with the Champ Hurdle.

My lack of enthusiasm for this race, means I lack the drive to spend time finding the winner.

Despite this, I do want to crack out of my losing streak however, I've had a quick look at the card and jesus, this is a crap race with Al Boum being a extremely strong fav

I'm giving it an hour max

If you can let me know what you don't back so I can include it in the Friday yankee that would be great

[Nortons who]

Yep I am well aware of the worth of the race, just disappointed with it, maybe too many from the same yards .....affects competition

I do see where CAT is coming from here but not sure how its going to change unless the younger up coming trainers ( Skelton, Fry, etc) start to get a much larger share of the overall training pool. Also its not just about the trainers here, its also the behaviour of the owners. Using JP as a positive example he has for many years placed his horses with different trainers (Nicky, Willie, Nicholls, Hobbs, JOB, and others too) and he regularly has multiple runners in the same races. Maybe the sport would benefit if more owners adopted a similar approach.

[opatcho]

Ok... I think the reason why I have been so terrible in this race, is because I tend to back Graded horses.
This is the Gold Cup, ran on the new course, and over the extended trip. I know that the majority of my previous selections have been, stupidly, on horses going well in the King George. Courses for horses etc.... however I also feel I've been backing quality horses over the batted harden ones.

So, I'm struggling to get Al Boum beaten for this. However, if you take him out I seriously think this race is fairly open. So I may go down the without fav option for this race.

So taking this new approach, I've gone through the last 10 Gold Cups, and was quiet surprised how may 'handicap' horses have either won this race or have placed highly in it.

2020 - NA
2019 - 2nd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2018 - 1st Native River, Welsh National and Hennessy winner. 3rd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2017 - 2nd Minella Rocco. Ran in the 4 miler at chelt, not a handicapper but quality (lower) and standard (battler needed) are the race are similar IMO. Ran well in Betvictor handicap
2016 - 2nd Djakadam
2015 - 2nd Djakadam. Ran in two handicap before this including the Hennessy
2014 - 2nd On His Own finished 6th in National, The Gaint Bolster was a handicapper in his earlier days
2013 - 1st Bobs worth Hennessy winner
2012 - Synchronised ran in plenty of handicaps before his win
2011 - Well... Long Run did run in one handicap, but wont count it. Place horses were top class - so scratching this year


Horse that have ran in handicap chases (may not be 100% accurate)

A Plus Tard (1)
Aso (> 5)
Burrows Saint (1)
Cyname (2)
Frodon (> 5). No.... just NOOOOOOO
Imperial Aura (2)
Kemboy (2?)
Master TommyTucker (1)
Native River (2)
Royal Pagaille (1)
Simple The Betts (> 5)
The Conditional (> 5)
Vinndication (3)
Magic Of Light (> 5)


Need to reduce this down, will scratch off anything that hasnt ran over 3 miles in a handicap, and really looking at horses that have carried above 11-5 in these handicaps and won (finish close to winner)

Frodon. Here he is, again. FFS. Won multiple times over course, and recently distance carrying top weight. Grade 1 under his belt LTO. Oh fook off Frodon
Native River. Going to keep him in for time being, huge performance LTO. Could battle on hard in March if the ground comes up terrible
Royal Pagaille. Need to take a deeper look at this horse
Magic Of Light (carried 10-11 in National, without mares allowance so she stays). Probably skips this.
Vinndication, I actually like his profile, ran a big race in the Ultima carrying top weight, and was going ok in the Hennessy before tipping the jockey off. Horse does well after a break. The yard have had a great season, and could get a big run out of him here. The Hennessy does well with generating winners / place horses for this. I like The Conditional but he was carrying a lot less weight on the two occasions the pair met, so have the scratch in favour of Vinny

_____________________________

At the prices, I'm going to back Vinndication at 40/1 NRNB to win. I didnt expect to be placing a win bet tonight!
If he lines up, he could head my shortlist in the W/O and place markets on the day

So...... Al Boum Photo backers can sleep easy tonight. I'm not backing him. Vinndication backers, sorry... lol

[opatcho]

Minor correction
Royal Pagaille (2)

[Lobos]

Ok... I think the reason why I have been so terrible in this race, is because I tend to back Graded horses.
This is the Gold Cup, ran on the new course, and over the extended trip. I know that the majority of my previous selections have been, stupidly, on horses going well in the King George. Courses for horses etc.... however I also feel I've been backing quality horses over the batted harden ones.

So, I'm struggling to get Al Boum beaten for this. However, if you take him out I seriously think this race is fairly open. So I may go down the without fav option for this race.

So taking this new approach, I've gone through the last 10 Gold Cups, and was quiet surprised how may 'handicap' horses have either won this race or have placed highly in it.

2020 - NA
2019 - 2nd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2018 - 1st Native River, Welsh National and Hennessy winner. 3rd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2017 - 2nd Minella Rocco. Ran in the 4 miler at chelt, not a handicapper but quality (lower) and standard (battler needed) are the race are similar IMO. Ran well in Betvictor handicap
2016 - 2nd Djakadam
2015 - 2nd Djakadam. Ran in two handicap before this including the Hennessy
2014 - 2nd On His Own finished 6th in National, The Gaint Bolster was a handicapper in his earlier days
2013 - 1st Bobs worth Hennessy winner
2012 - Synchronised ran in plenty of handicaps before his win
2011 - Well... Long Run did run in one handicap, but wont count it. Place horses were top class - so scratching this year


Horse that have ran in handicap chases (may not be 100% accurate)

A Plus Tard (1)
Aso (> 5)
Burrows Saint (1)
Cyname (2)
Frodon (> 5). No.... just NOOOOOOO
Imperial Aura (2)
Kemboy (2?)
Master TommyTucker (1)
Native River (2)
Royal Pagaille (1)
Simple The Betts (> 5)
The Conditional (> 5)
Vinndication (3)
Magic Of Light (> 5)


Need to reduce this down, will scratch off anything that hasnt ran over 3 miles in a handicap, and really looking at horses that have carried above 11-5 in these handicaps and won (finish close to winner)

Frodon. Here he is, again. FFS. Won multiple times over course, and recently distance carrying top weight. Grade 1 under his belt LTO. Oh fook off Frodon
Native River. Going to keep him in for time being, huge performance LTO. Could battle on hard in March if the ground comes up terrible
Royal Pagaille. Need to take a deeper look at this horse
Magic Of Light (carried 10-11 in National, without mares allowance so she stays). Probably skips this.
Vinndication, I actually like his profile, ran a big race in the Ultima carrying top weight, and was going ok in the Hennessy before tipping the jockey off. Horse does well after a break. The yard have had a great season, and could get a big run out of him here. The Hennessy does well with generating winners / place horses for this. I like The Conditional but he was carrying a lot less weight on the two occasions the pair met, so have the scratch in favour of Vinny

_____________________________

At the prices, I'm going to back Vinndication at 40/1 NRNB to win. I didnt expect to be placing a win bet tonight!
If he lines up, he could head my shortlist in the W/O and place markets on the day

So...... Al Boum Photo backers can sleep easy tonight. I'm not backing him. Vinndication backers, sorry... lol

Thank you Opatcho for not backing Boum. I'll send you a percentage when he gets the hat trick ! Good luck with Vindication in the without market !

[Nortons who]

Ok... I think the reason why I have been so terrible in this race, is because I tend to back Graded horses.
This is the Gold Cup, ran on the new course, and over the extended trip. I know that the majority of my previous selections have been, stupidly, on horses going well in the King George. Courses for horses etc.... however I also feel I've been backing quality horses over the batted harden ones.

So, I'm struggling to get Al Boum beaten for this. However, if you take him out I seriously think this race is fairly open. So I may go down the without fav option for this race.

So taking this new approach, I've gone through the last 10 Gold Cups, and was quiet surprised how may 'handicap' horses have either won this race or have placed highly in it.

2020 - NA
2019 - 2nd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2018 - 1st Native River, Welsh National and Hennessy winner. 3rd Anibale Fly. Won Paddy Power Chase, big handicap
2017 - 2nd Minella Rocco. Ran in the 4 miler at chelt, not a handicapper but quality (lower) and standard (battler needed) are the race are similar IMO. Ran well in Betvictor handicap
2016 - 2nd Djakadam
2015 - 2nd Djakadam. Ran in two handicap before this including the Hennessy
2014 - 2nd On His Own finished 6th in National, The Gaint Bolster was a handicapper in his earlier days
2013 - 1st Bobs worth Hennessy winner
2012 - Synchronised ran in plenty of handicaps before his win
2011 - Well... Long Run did run in one handicap, but wont count it. Place horses were top class - so scratching this year


Horse that have ran in handicap chases (may not be 100% accurate)

A Plus Tard (1)
Aso (> 5)
Burrows Saint (1)
Cyname (2)
Frodon (> 5). No.... just NOOOOOOO
Imperial Aura (2)
Kemboy (2?)
Master TommyTucker (1)
Native River (2)
Royal Pagaille (1)
Simple The Betts (> 5)
The Conditional (> 5)
Vinndication (3)
Magic Of Light (> 5)


Need to reduce this down, will scratch off anything that hasnt ran over 3 miles in a handicap, and really looking at horses that have carried above 11-5 in these handicaps and won (finish close to winner)

Frodon. Here he is, again. FFS. Won multiple times over course, and recently distance carrying top weight. Grade 1 under his belt LTO. Oh fook off Frodon
Native River. Going to keep him in for time being, huge performance LTO. Could battle on hard in March if the ground comes up terrible
Royal Pagaille. Need to take a deeper look at this horse
Magic Of Light (carried 10-11 in National, without mares allowance so she stays). Probably skips this.
Vinndication, I actually like his profile, ran a big race in the Ultima carrying top weight, and was going ok in the Hennessy before tipping the jockey off. Horse does well after a break. The yard have had a great season, and could get a big run out of him here. The Hennessy does well with generating winners / place horses for this. I like The Conditional but he was carrying a lot less weight on the two occasions the pair met, so have the scratch in favour of Vinny

_____________________________

At the prices, I'm going to back Vinndication at 40/1 NRNB to win. I didnt expect to be placing a win bet tonight!
If he lines up, he could head my shortlist in the W/O and place markets on the day

So...... Al Boum Photo backers can sleep easy tonight. I'm not backing him. Vinndication backers, sorry... lol

opatcho

I really fancied Vinndication for this after last season but his prep (like many others) has gone poorly. I was fully expecting him to win this season and push his OR right up but the UR at Newbury was unfortunate, especially as that in conjunction with the weather have prevented him from having another run.

NRNB is definitely the way to go though as unless anyone is aware of a more recent update KB was indicating the Stayers or the Ultima could still be options for Vinndication.