Gold Cup 2021

[Spectre]

Assuming Al Boum Photo has a straightforward passage, and given the potential strength and depth of opposition, I see him being 7/2-4/1 on the day. As the reigning champ this March he went off 10/3 in an easier looking race than it's likely to be this year.

[Saxon Warrior]

Malone Road is definitely NOT in that category. My bones this year are ABP and PTKO. Close behind are Saint Roi and Sire Du Berlais. All of those I'm certain their prices will contract massively when the proper racing begins. Nothing wrong with a bone. Last year it was Honeysuckle. Laurina the year before that (ouch) , Rathvinden in 2018, Defi in 2017..... Plenty of meat on the bones !

Loving the "Bone-work" Lobos.

[EnvoyAllen]

I think all the 6's will be gone in a few weeks. 4/1 around November. 5/2 after his run in January and 2's for the hat trick on the day. Thats regardless of what happens elsewhere. Others will inevitably shorten as well . I stand by 6/1 is an amazing price for someone who's been there and done it twice before and who , imo, they haven't really got to the bottom of yet. If he gets injured then I've done my money but I always have one (or two) that I concentrate on every year which can possibly give me a big pot of gold (and a huge amount of fun) through singles and this year doubles and he is it. I know it's not going to guarantee a profit but when they come off its a huge buzz. The rest of the races I build a portfolio like everyone else and at the moment mine mirrors most people's on here bar a few where I've gone off peak. I think by now everyone on here knows that I latch onto a horse now and again and talk it up until the cows come home. Everyone knows it's just my opinion and I'm not expecting anyone to follow me in on my thoughts. Then again, if I see what I think is a bargain out there or one that I have a hunch will go a particular route then I'm more than happy to let everyone know . That's what forums are for .

I think there’s one extremely important point about the 6/1 you can currently get on ABP’s value, and I’m not sure it’s been brought upon here, although I do know I mentioned it a few months ago....

He’s extremely likely to run just the one race (New Year’s Day) in a smallish uncompetitive field, of which he’s likely to win.......................and then............it’s straight onto Cheltenham. No slogs throughout the season, just 1 prep before the big one. This allows the 6/1 value to remain, as he’s unlikely to lose that race, and you’ll be looking at a 7/2 price after he wins it, then shortening further when all the hype about equalling Best Mate’s record starts surfacing in the media a few weeks beforehand.

In effect, by not running before that New Year’s Day run, he can’t lose a race, thus his price can’t lengthen for any reason. I agree, whilst I don’t necessarily have many points riding on him at the moment, his route to last year’s winning festival is only likely to be repeated - campaigned lightly with no chance of the 6/1 shortening.

Unless he falls at the first fence at Tramore on New Year’s Day, of course......

[Silverbirch]

I think there’s one extremely important point about the 6/1 you can currently get on ABP’s value, and I’m not sure it’s been brought upon here, although I do know I mentioned it a few months ago....

He’s extremely likely to run just the one race (New Year’s Day) in a smallish uncompetitive field, of which he’s likely to win.......................and then............it’s straight onto Cheltenham. No slogs throughout the season, just 1 prep before the big one. This allows the 6/1 value to remain, as he’s unlikely to lose that race, and you’ll be looking at a 7/2 price after he wins it, then shortening further when all the hype about equalling Best Mate’s record starts surfacing in the media a few weeks beforehand.

In effect, by not running before that New Year’s Day run, he can’t lose a race, thus his price can’t lengthen for any reason. I agree, whilst I don’t necessarily have many points riding on him at the moment, his route to last year’s winning festival is only likely to be repeated - campaigned lightly with no chance of the 6/1 shortening.

Unless he falls at the first fence at Tramore on New Year’s Day, of course......

What about if his closest rivals (Santini, LIT, Champ, DW) fail to win/impress/get injured? That's a reason to shorten, not to mention the money they'll be taking for it aswell. It won't move much tho

[Spectre]

If they don't impress (unlikely), then others have and take their place. The thing about the way the Gold Cup is potentially shaping up this year, is the both the quality and strength in depth is more so than it has been for a few seasons.

Consequently, Al Boum Photo will face his biggest challenge so far. And while it doesn't mean he won't win it, it does mean the market is likely to be much tighter with more towards the head of the market with realistic chances, and therefore a much wider spread of where punters money is going.

[Lobos]

If they don't impress (unlikely), then others have and take their place. The thing about the way the Gold Cup is potentially shaping up this year, is the both the quality and strength in depth is more so than it has been for a few seasons.

Consequently, Al Boum Photo will face his biggest challenge so far. And while it doesn't mean he won't win it, it does mean the market is likely to be much tighter with more towards the head of the market with realistic chances, and therefore a much wider spread of where punters money is going.

Watched his 2 GC's back. Both very different races. The first one was a lot quicker, taken along by Native River, whereas this year's was a bit of a crawl. Paul had to take a pull a few times as he didn't want to get there too early. He got in close several times but is very clever. Interesting that he followed Santini as well. Clearly they recognised him as the danger from the start. What I like is he really quickened at the tail end of both races dispite the different pace and was able to put some daylight between himself and the challengers to give him enough to last up the hill. He is very good. He's still relatively inexperienced as well with just 11 chases. He's won 6 and been placed twice . But that doesn't tell the full story. Of the other 3 he would have won twice but for falling late and also running out in 'that' race and the other time he'd have been placed in an RSA. That's some record and the new kids will have to be special to take his crown.

[Saxon Warrior]

If they don't impress (unlikely), then others have and take their place. The thing about the way the Gold Cup is potentially shaping up this year, is the both the quality and strength in depth is more so than it has been for a few seasons.

Consequently, Al Boum Photo will face his biggest challenge so far. And while it doesn't mean he won't win it, it does mean the market is likely to be much tighter with more towards the head of the market with realistic chances, and therefore a much wider spread of where punters money is going.

Hopefully we can see HdB give Minella Indo a proper go at the first half of the season to see how much scope to improve he has.
He lined up in both his 3M Festival races after only two runs in the season, which means he is an under-raced horse as a staying novice hurdler and a staying novice chaser.

[Spectre]

Yes I like him too SW. Champ isn't getting too much airtime either, and if his jumping holds together he will go close too. Santini can reverse with ABP too if it's a sterner test.

It's a valid point with regards the way the two races were won Lobos, and it really shows his versatility and class. However, in hindsight I don't think his first Gold Cup took too much winning, and on the ladder of Gold Cups I wouldn't place it very high. And this year the race was run perfectly to suit. I think he will be vulnerable next March if it's a proper test, and I think other trainers know that's the best way to beat him. Make sure he doesn't have a kick left.

I have a nice roll-up on him so I'm interested enough, but in my head I currently I have 3 horses ahead of him if they go a true Championship pace.

[Silverbirch]

Yes I like him too SW. Champ isn't getting too much airtime either, and if his jumping holds together he will go close too. Santini can reverse with ABP too if it's a sterner test.

It's a valid point with regards the way the two races were won Lobos, and it really shows his versatility and class. However, in hindsight I don't think his first Gold Cup took too much winning, and on the ladder of Gold Cups I wouldn't place it very high. And this year the race was run perfectly to suit. I think he will be vulnerable next March if it's a proper test, and I think other trainers know that's the best way to beat him. Make sure he doesn't have a kick left.

I have a nice roll-up on him so I'm interested enough, but in my head I currently I have 3 horses ahead of him if they go a true Championship pace.

3?! Crikey

[Spectre]

Yes, if they go a true Championship gallop I'd have Minella Indo, Santini, and Champ ahead of him Silver Birch.

If they go the pace they did last season I think he fights it out with Champ, and Lostintraslation and Monalee will finish where they did last season.

Their proximity to Al Boum Photo last season says it all in my mind though. Both are better over shorter, and are not genuine stayers in the Gold Cup sense of the words. If it's a true test, in my opinion they'll both be out with the washing.

[Lobos]

Yes I like him too SW. Champ isn't getting too much airtime either, and if his jumping holds together he will go close too. Santini can reverse with ABP too if it's a sterner test.

It's a valid point with regards the way the two races were won Lobos, and it really shows his versatility and class. However, in hindsight I don't think his first Gold Cup took too much winning, and on the ladder of Gold Cups I wouldn't place it very high. And this year the race was run perfectly to suit. I think he will be vulnerable next March if it's a proper test, and I think other trainers know that's the best way to beat him. Make sure he doesn't have a kick left.

I have a nice roll-up on him so I'm interested enough, but in my head I currently I have 3 horses ahead of him if they go a true Championship pace.

I disagree with this year's race being run to suit. He wouldn't have appreciated the slow pace at all. He is a proper Stayer and if you watch his races the further he goes the better he travels.

[Spectre]

I'm not suggesting he doesn't stay Lobos, but I think there are potentially two or three horses this time that may stay better than the opposition he faced first time around. Anibale Fly and Bristol De Mai were just behind him don't forget. Where would you put those two this time around if they all turn up and it's a similarly run race?

If you don't see the comparisons I'm making we'll have to agree to disagree I guess.

[Lobos]

I'm not suggesting he doesn't stay Lobos, but I think there are potentially two or three horses this time that may stay better than the opposition he faced first time around. Anibale Fly and Bristol De Mai were just behind him don't forget. Where would you put those two this time around if they all turn up and it's a similarly run race?

If you don't see the comparisons I'm making we'll have to agree to disagree I guess.

He's the sort of horse that however the race is run he'll find a way to win. People still crab Best Mates 3 Gold Cups in view of those that finished behind him but as that old saying goes you can only beat what's put Infront of you. Also don't forget along with Cyrname he's the highest rated horse out there so officially he is the best.

[Spectre]

He's the sort of horse that however the race is run he'll find a way to win. People still crab Best Mates 3 Gold Cups in view of those that finished behind him but as that old saying goes you can only beat what's put Infront of you.

That's very true. And at this stage we have no idea which horses will make it there.

[archie]

There can be no doubt that ABP should be favourite at this stage. You can argue all you like about the value at 6/1 but he's 6/1 because that's the shortest price that people are prepared to take this far out. The serious contenders will only appear in November at the earliest so, unless some drop by the wayside before then, there is no reason why his price should contract significantly in that time.

It's perfectly legitimate for a time limited free bet or to use him in a double to get a decent price on the second horse but backing him with real money in a single isn't a strategy that would interest me for a couple of months or more.