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They know how good he is. They can make the same assessments that I did beforehand, and on top of that they have the added benefit of knowing how he works at home.
And it doesn't matter what you beat, the manner of victory was pretty obvious, and what the clock says doesn't lie. The fact that his two main rivals didn't compete doesn't make his win worse, it just means they weren't there to get trounced, becuse nothing either have ever done on a racecourse is even remotely close to his level of ability.
By comparison RPR's say that only Al Boum Photo has put in a better performance so far this season, but I have those two ratings in complete reverse. Of course some will argue that ratings and time are irrelevant. 'I go by what my eyes tell me'. I'll just say 'each to their own'. I made the case from the Kempton run based on both, and they weren't wrong then, and I don't expect them to be in March.
Would I be bullish enough to say he beats Al Boum Photo? No. But I would be bullish enough to say that the ratings I now have for him would usually be good enough to place in most recent Gold Cups. Also good enough to win two of the last six. Tellingly he is also on a sharp upward curve, and who knows where it ends. The one thing he hasn't done yet is do it at Cheltenham. Chacun Pour Soi anyone!
I'll say it. I actually do think 8-12/1 behind Al Boum Photo will look very good value when we all have the benefit of hindsite after the race itself. I'd certainly have him clear second favourite, when he actually has Santini, A Plus Tard, and Minella Indo ahead of him in the market. Champ is the same price and hasn't even seen a racecourse yet!
You really really like RP don’t you?
If I weren’t interested in the horse, I would be now.
As it is, I can’t make my mind up on him. I think the softer the ground, the more I like him. And for that, I haven’t yet backed him. Don’t think the price will change too much at least for a little while now so will hold off and decide nearer the time.
Spectre what have you got timewise that "what the clock say doesn't lie" ? not a dig just curious as whilst he's been visually good i haven't anything on the time front that has matched the visuals but he hasn't had to with the ease of victory's is the easy counter.
I was talking to a member of Bridgewater's staff today.......
He told me that The Conditional is 'absolutely flying at home' (Why would he say anything else!!)
He also told me if The Conditional places in The Cotswold Chase he will definitely go for The Gold Cup, if not it will be The Ultima
This is reminiscent of 2012 with the Giant Bolster, heading into the Cotswold Chase with an OR of 145, smashing Poquelin to get up to 160 and then getting outstayed by Synchronised in the GC.
IMO, I doubt very much whether history will repeat itself with The Conditional.
I might be wrong but to me he just doesn't look the type to shoulder 11:10 in the GC against the likes of ABP and Minella Indo, whereas the Bolster appeared to be a real bruiser heavyweight who came close but not quite close enough.
Also pocket talking, I would rather see The Conditional in the Ultima !
This is reminiscent of 2012 with the Giant Bolster, heading into the Cotswold Chase with an OR of 145, smashing Poquelin to get up to 160 and then getting outstayed by Synchronised in the GC.
IMO, I doubt very much whether history will repeat itself with The Conditional.
I might be wrong but to me he just doesn't look the type to shoulder 11:10 in the GC against the likes of ABP and Minella Indo, whereas the Bolster appeared to be a real bruiser heavyweight who came close but not quite close enough.
Also pocket talking, I would rather see The Conditional in the Ultima !
Twice placed in a Hennessy and ran just twice at Cheltenham and won them both, once at The Fez. What have you started ??!! 16/1 for Saturday and any price for the GC.
Twice placed in a Hennessy and ran just twice at Cheltenham and won them both, once at The Fez. What have you started ??!! 16/1 for Saturday and any price for the GC.
Hopefully I haven't started anything Lobos because I really don't want The Conditional to run in the GC. I should though declare a slight interest insofar as I have got him covered in my Exchange bets for a small play at 250-1 but this is part of my GC Exchange trading, none of which is included in my FJ Ante Post bets.
Glad to see he's as big as 16/1 for the weekend (The Conditional)
It is odd though, as essentially he's going to be trying his hardest, so whatever mark he gets is probably what he actuall is, meaning he's not 'well handicapped' anymore.
I'm disappointed overall, I should have factored in the trainers habits before making the case for The Conditional in the Ultima, as The Giant Bolster wasn't exactly under the radar to consider.
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