Gold Cup 2021

[ToniC]

ToniC

Santini is an easy horse to knock because he’s been poorly campaigned pretty much his entire career, a horse like him should never be anywhere near Kempton, none of that is the horses fault of course.

I’ve heard people talking about racing him closer to the pace, I don’t believe the horse can go that speed, Nico could be kicking and punching him for a mile I just don’t think he’d be able to get him up with championship pace.
You almost have to let him race at his pace and hope the breaks come and those in front fall in a hole as his stamina kicks in.

He can win a gold cup, I’m just not sure there’s much Hendo or Nico can do to improve his chances...

Yeah, I’d agree with just about all of that to be honest

[jono]

I don't really get the negativity with Al Boum Photo today. Didn't quite look as effortless as previous years but it ended up being a precession.
He's never flashy. Even his 2 Gold Cups wins haven't been a spectacle. But he goes around, and gets the job done, each and every time.
He's 9 years old, so it's also understandable if another year on, he isn't quite as sharp in his seasonal opener.

Each Gold Cup will take its toll and it will be a hard task for him to win a third. However i'm not sure this years race will be any stronger really than last season.
He had the fresh challenge of Delta Work (Savills Chase & Irish GC winner), Santini (Cotswold Chase winner), Lostintranslation (did the unthinkable in beating BdM at Haydock albeit then flopped at Kempton). I'm not convinced this years novices overall are stronger, maybe on par. It's then a repeat of the likes of Kemboy, Presenting Percy and co, who he has the beating of.

For me the race comes down to him, plus

Minella Indo

The one i'm siding with overall. Unfortunate fall in the Savills. Until then his campaign had been going perfectly, albeit against lesser opposition.
Love the fact HdB is getting plenty of races into him. Looks far more assured this season and unlikely to be caught in a battle at the front end this year (like he did in the RSA) which went some way to harming his chances.

A Plus Tard

I'll admit he wasn't on my radar for this race. But he won last time out and put himself right into the picture. 7 years old, unexposed, festival form, high class form over shorter.
I really do think he could be in a similar mould to Sizing John. As long as he holds his form at the DRF, I see zero chance he goes for the Ryanair again.
I'd have him slightly behind the 2 above, but he's a fascinating contender now. And may well have plenty more improvement to come as he tries 3miles plus, left handed once again. I don't have any major stamina doubts for this race with him.

The other novices stepping into the race...

Champ just looks easy to oppose. As last season, I have always been on the MI side but at the start of the year, at the same odds I felt it was impossible to back one and not the other. Where as I have applauded the handling of MI this season so far, Champ has been anything just, though I except setbacks cannot be helped. Jumping, with plenty more experience was needed. It looks like instead it's one run (Cotswold Chase) then the GC. He pulled the RSA out from nowhere....literally. Perhaps he can do it again, despite backing him though he's not for me.

Samcro may well get another chance next time out but has no chance off the back of his run.

Allaho must also come into consideration with the RSA form. You feel Mullins is adamant he will prove, at some stage he is a staying 3 mile chaser. But on all the evidence we have so far, and for all his run last time was solid, he just doesn't look like the 3m2 trip is anything like what he wants. And instead a front running Ryanair trip would be his best hope.

I would actually love to see Melon win it. Before this season he's never been a horse I have warmed too, at all. Way below par away from Cheltenham, he never drew me in.
But since they changed tactics and things clicked in last years Marsh, he is such an enjoyable watch. Would be some sight seeing him finally get his Cheltenham win, in the biggest race of all, when the spotlight was on his stablemate in the same colours. But I do fear he just won't have what it takes over 3m2.

Of the horses to challenge again...

Despite Native River defying the stat, i'm still fairly confident the race won't be won be a horse who has previously failed in the race. For all Santini was only a neck second last year, had excuses and will be there or there abouts, he's just not for me until he goes out to a price worth chancing. It's argued last years race wasn't run to suit. Which makes sense. But at the same time there should be plenty of pace this year, which for me just means he'll struggle to hold his position and could actually be in an even worse spot in the race.

And lastly, I haven't mentioned Frodon.
I've never ever got this horse right. He's ran 38 times, and i've honestly never won a penny on him.
I remember going to Aintree with Kev last season, one of the few times I had backed him. We both thought he was a certainty. Weight no object.
So perhaps i'll get him wrong once more.
But if a horse wins a Gold Cup, in a season where they have got beat 82 LENGTHS by Lake View Lad, i'll give up horse racing for good.

[Nortons who]

Well summarised to date Jono.

Based on performances to date, I would be going for Al Boum Photo or Melon to deliver a 3rd win for Willie Mullins. However, until we see Champ run its difficult to say whether he could be the one who puts in a decisive shift at the sharp end just as he did in the RSA. It all depends on his jumping as we know he travels well and has a decent furn of foot.

Finally, what is happening with Carefully Selected. Willie Mullins gave us a carrot a while back, suggesting we watch out for CS potentially turning into a GC contender. Since then, no sighting at all of CS.

[Kevloaf]

And lastly, I haven't mentioned Frodon.
I've never ever got this horse right. He's ran 38 times, and i've honestly never won a penny on him.
I remember going to Aintree with Kev last season, one of the few times I had backed him. We both thought he was a certainty. Weight no object.
So perhaps i'll get him wrong once more.
But if a horse wins a Gold Cup, in a season where they have got beat 82 LENGTHS by Lake View Lad, i'll give up horse racing for good.

We lost some money that day

[Topofthegame2021]

Carefully selected not entered for the Gold Cup. York hill is however...

https://twitter.com/hawkwing2002/status/1346796196887724032?s=21

[Lobos]

Carefully selected not entered for the Gold Cup. York hill is however...

https://twitter.com/hawkwing2002/sta...887724032?s=21

Don't tell Kev that ......... he'll come in his pants !

[Lobos]

Imperial Aura entered.........ummmmmm. I'm tempted with him NRNB.

[Quevega]

Imperial Aura entered.........ummmmmm. I'm tempted with him NRNB.

Did it an hour ago.
Then decided to check the entries

Vinndication getting entry in the stayers also .

KIm Bailey quickly usurping Ruth as my least favourite.
Be typical of him to run Imperial in the Gold cup.
However, they have been adamant it's Ryanair or nothing, I suppose the entry is just in case the race massively cuts up I suppose.

[Kevloaf]

Did it an hour ago.
Then decided to check the entries

Vinndication getting entry in the stayers also .

KIm Bailey quickly usurping Ruth as my least favourite.
Be typical of him to run Imperial in the Gold cup.
However, they have been adamant it's Ryanair or nothing, I suppose the entry is just in case the race massively cuts up I suppose.

What did he do with Vinndication last season (or year before?) Rule him out then run him?

[Quevega]

What did he do with Vinndication last season (or year before?) Rule him out then run him?

Just annoyed me throughout Vinndication's career.
avoided the novice hurdle season, always said he's a gold cup horse and waffled about the course and left handed not suiting.

Then said not running in his novice chase season, only to then run him in JLT a week later (this was the worst and most annoying).
Then runs him in a handicap at the festival off top weight.
Now he's getting an entry in the stayers !!!!

The long term Gold cup plan not gone as well as he'd hoped.
I just think he missed a trick last season and should have gone for the Hennessy off 151, and then had a go at the gold cup as an improving seven yr old.

He's probably about to do the same with Imperial Aura.

[archie]

The initial entries are a perfect example of why RPRs are dodgy if taken at face value. The horse with the highest RPR of the 41 entries is..
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Bristol De Mai.

[BigChaang]

Don't tell Kev that ......... he'll come in his pants !

Well , he did say earlier he put 100 point's on today ........ ?????????.

[Kevloaf]

Well , he did say earlier he put 100 point's on today ........ ?????????.

Haha, I would back him on the day 100%.

He'd be another contender for a profile picture and name if I was starting again!

[Quevega]

Willie's entries in this are interesting.

Al Boum Photo - definite runner

Kemboy - probably prefers a flatter track but looked back to form and if he runs well again in Dublin, a very likely runner you'd think.

Castlebawn West - now rated 160 after winning the handicap, and is very much under the radar. Likely to run ?


Acapella Bourgouis - Unlikely to run and not been to Cheltenham since hurdling, although he may run if he's now Al Boum's pony.

Burrows Saint - surely only a prep for the National if he runs, therefore unlikely given the circumstances.

Then we have Melon and Allaho.

I think it's dependent upon Dublin for these 2 and it's a toss up job, although I wouldn't rule out both running, especially if one of the other likely runners has some issue.

[archie]

I agree with Q in that it seems likely that Willie's Savill's runners will get an Irish Gold Cup entry and, until then, it's foolish to take a strong view on any of them.

Allaho - they specifically said that they were disappointed with the run and made no mention of not staying. If he goes well the next time I'd slightly favour this as the target.
Tornado Flyer - they were very pleased with how he stayed on but doesn't have an entry here.
Melon - they still think he'll stay but if ABP shows to be as good as ever I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for the Ryanair.
Kemboy - a horse that finishes 5th in a Neptune and 4th in a JLT doesn't hate Cheltenham. However, there are grounds for thinking that the track configuration and positioning of the fences doesn't allow him to get in to the same rhythm as he managed at Leopardstown, Aintree and Punchestown. There is a constituency that thinks he would have a chance in the Stayers Hurdle.