Gold Cup 2021

[somer1]

....Sky appear to have taken down their a/r market, was checking to see if they’d left ABM @ 5-1.

Its back up. ABP is 4/1 anyrace and 7/2 to win the Gold Cup!!!

[ryanh97]

Let that be a lesson to you Faugheen_Machine

Faugheen_Machine tut tut

[Outlaw]

Hard to knock any horse who has won two GC, considering his general jumping it is scarcely believable he has thou as a few have mentioned.

Bit of FUN then- price up the past few GC winners since the Kauto/Denman battles,if they raced. Or how many years would've ABP been Fav after his first win for any of the winners races below.

ABP,Native River,Sizing John,Don Cossack,Coneygree,Lord Windermere,Bobs Worth,Synchronised.

[Kautostar]

He’s just been dominating average gold cups for me similarly in fact to best mate who also won three average at best gold cups but you can only beat what is in front of you and not every year is a vintage renewal. Out of the previous gold cups I think he would have won the Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Synchronised renewals and probably the coneygree one too.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Let that be a lesson to you Faugheen_Machine

He agrees with me, then tries to give me a sporting history lesson.

Makes a nice change from being told everyone should have backed Envoi Allen prior to Covid.

I'll go sit in the corner

[fatherjohn]

He’s just been dominating average gold cups for me similarly in fact to best mate who also won three average at best gold cups but you can only beat what is in front of you and not every year is a vintage renewal. Out of the previous gold cups I think he would have won the Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Synchronised renewals and probably the coneygree one too.

I guess the question is whether this year has any others that are above average then. from the little we have seen we would expect ABP to return with a similar standard so up to others to match it.

I dont see any of the gold Cup horses from last year improving enough so for me its minella indo or a plus tard. I wouldnt be hugely confident either are better than APB.

if he wins 3 gold cups I dont think anyone can say he's not an above average winner.

[Hurricane fly]

Hard to knock any horse who has won two GC, considering his general jumping it is scarcely believable he has thou as a few have mentioned.

Bit of FUN then- price up the past few GC winners since the Kauto/Denman battles,if they raced. Or how many years would've ABP been Fav after his first win for any of the winners races below.

ABP,Native River,Sizing John,Don Cossack,Coneygree,Lord Windermere,Bobs Worth,Synchronised.

I’d take Don Cossack comfortably

[Rooster Booster]

I’d take Don Cossack comfortably

Yep me too

[Garrison Savannah]

I guess the question is whether this year has any others that are above average then. from the little we have seen we would expect ABP to return with a similar standard so up to others to match it.

I dont see any of the gold Cup horses from last year improving enough so for me its minella indo or a plus tard. I wouldnt be hugely confident either are better than APB.

if he wins 3 gold cups I dont think anyone can say he's not an above average winner.

you think it’s impossible Santini could improve 1 length?

[fatherjohn]

i think santini gets outpaced at crucial stages and his campaign this year hasn't set him up as well as last year. I dont see him as one of the most likely winners based on that.

[Saxon Warrior]

Best Mate was an average winner three times, ABP could be the same,

Runners-Up in the Gold Cup to Best Mate were Sir Rembrandt, Truckers Tavern and Commanche Court.
Best Mate’s highest ever OR was 175, and RPR 178.

- Sir Rembrant’s best Chase win was the Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 3M3F at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

- Truckers Taverns best Chase win was the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock

- Commanche Court’s best Chase win was the Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup 2years before his Gold Cup 2nd.
- After that Punchestown win he lost 7 races (42P5394) on the trot (RPRs 145, 163, PU, 159.163, 134, 148) before finishing 2nd in Best Mates first Gold Cup win.

Those three make this years contenders look like world-beaters.

—————————-

Al Boum Photo has an identical top rating and RPR to the top figures that Best Mate ever did, OR 175, RPR 178.

I don’t imagine either’s connections care what their ratings are or who they beat, and only care about multiple times winning the Gold Cup.
.

[ToniC]

i think santini gets outpaced at crucial stages and his campaign this year hasn't set him up as well as last year. I dont see him as one of the most likely winners based on that.

I do agree with you about his lack of tactical speed, and as horses go I’m firmly not a fan of his, although maybe that’s more to do with how hendo campaigns the horse, but IMO there are a narrow set of circumstances I could see him being well suited by & winning in, namely if it were to be deep ground and turn into a very attritional race with the classier horses not staying the trip out.

he’s an easy horse to knock and as I said I’m not a fan myself, he wouldn’t have to get too much bigger for me to want him onside - this time last year he’d had to dig deep to beat the 144 rated now mcginty by a head. I do think, to give him his due, that he’ll be much better judged after his run in the Cotswold again.

[Saxon Warrior]

I do agree with you about his lack of tactical speed, and as horses go I’m firmly not a fan of his, although maybe that’s more to do with how hendo campaigns the horse, but IMO there are a narrow set of circumstances I could see him being well suited by & winning in, namely if it were to be deep ground and turn into a very attritional race with the classier horses not staying the trip out.

he’s an easy horse to knock and as I said I’m not a fan myself, he wouldn’t have to get too much bigger for me to want him onside - this time last year he’d had to dig deep to beat the 144 rated now mcginty by a head. I do think, to give him his due, that he’ll be much better judged after his run in the Cotswold again.

Maybe he just needs more runs, to get his gears grinding, than the trainer has been giving him, in the past.

[Istabraq]

ToniC

Santini is an easy horse to knock because he’s been poorly campaigned pretty much his entire career, a horse like him should never be anywhere near Kempton, none of that is the horses fault of course.

I’ve heard people talking about racing him closer to the pace, I don’t believe the horse can go that speed, Nico could be kicking and punching him for a mile I just don’t think he’d be able to get him up with championship pace.
You almost have to let him race at his pace and hope the breaks come and those in front fall in a hole as his stamina kicks in.

He can win a gold cup, I’m just not sure there’s much Hendo or Nico can do to improve his chances...

[ToniC]

Maybe he just needs more runs, to get his gears grinding, than the trainer has been giving him, in the past.

I’d be thinking so. The 12s is tempting but just not quite enough. If it was available with Denise I’d take it. If it turns up good to soft or better on the day, I’d give him no chance of turning the form around as I can’t see us getting one slowly run like last year again and I think he’ll be badly outpaced much like don poli was in the gold cup on good ground, but if we get some cut in the ground I think it would play to his strengths much more than his opponents