Gold Cup 2021

[Kevloaf]

Personally I think they'd be mad to go KG with LIT, what's the point. Clearly didn't act round Kempton for whatever reason. Take in the Betfair Chase, miss Kempton and then either go straight to Cheltenham, or run in the Cotswold Chase. If he were mine that would be the plan

There was/is no logical reason for him not to have run well at Kempton though?
Haydock is a similar track apart from being the other way around, same attributes needed?
I don't think they should rule out a King George crack based on last years run... I think someone mentioned Cue Card as a good example...

[Outlaw]

But at the same time it could easily go in... this is why I think 14s is a good price when I personally think it should be 10s max. I expect him to go very close/win the betfair chase as many probably do which will mean his price will shorten to probably 8/1? then you have missed the price. Then you have a free run at the KG. if he goes close or even wins, great, the price will go shorter. If he doesn't run particularly well (like last year) then it will probably be pushed back out to the original price which you have already got. I would be hugely surprised his price is any bigger than 14s on race day.

Hence why i said you expect him to go close in both.... he went off 10s last year for the race and with new blood and seemingly a better potential line up i struggle to see how he will go off shorter than last year unless he wins the Betfair and goes very close in the KG as i said above.

[Super Raven]

Personally I think they'd be mad to go KG with LIT, what's the point. Clearly didn't act round Kempton for whatever reason. Take in the Betfair Chase, miss Kempton and then either go straight to Cheltenham, or run in the Cotswold Chase. If he were mine that would be the plan

Possibly would be a better idea for the long term aim of the Gold Cup I agree. However that isn't based on the back of his KG run last year by any means, I don't think he didn't act round Kempton, he was coming into the race (albeit after a shaky start) and reached at a jump which ultimately ended any chance before being pulled up. Not saying it's the only reason he won but Al Boum Photo was obviously more race fit and his season was much smoother than either of Santini and LIT in 2nd and 3rd.

[Super Raven]

Hence why i said you expect him to go close in both.... he went off 10s last year for the race and with new blood and seemingly a better potential line up i struggle to see how he will go off shorter than last year unless he wins the Betfair and goes very close in the KG as i said above.

Yeah I get that.. I'm just saying you might as well take the 14s now as I would only expect it to get shorter and can't see it being any bigger on the day. The reason he went off 10s last year was mainly down to the fact he pulled up in his last race before heading to Cheltenham. Hardly ideal prep for running in a Gold cup to not finish a whilst the winner Al Boum Photo had a trot around Tramore...

[Outlaw]

Yeah I get that.. I'm just saying you might as well take the 14s now as I would only expect it to get shorter and can't see it being any bigger on the day. The reason he went off 10s last year was mainly down to the fact he pulled up in his last race before heading to Cheltenham. Hardly ideal prep for running in a Gold cup to not finish a whilst the winner Al Boum Photo had a trot around Tramore...

Al boum,Santini,Indo will end up single digits you would imagine and poss Champ jumping dependent i'm just struggling to see him start much under 10s(would have to win both really) and i think many would wait closer to the fez and see how that Yard is going this year potentially. No right or wrong merely opinions, i wish you well.

[Super Raven]

Al boum,Santini,Indo will end up single digits you would imagine and poss Champ jumping dependent i'm just struggling to see him start much under 10s(would have to win both really) and i think many would wait closer to the fez and see how that Yard is going this year potentially. No right or wrong merely opinions, i wish you well.

Yep, agreed on that. I just think taking 14s now is the best idea if you think LIT has a good chance to win. I suppose we shall see how he gets on in the betfair chase and what his odds change to.

[Super Raven]

Al boum,Santini,Indo will end up single digits you would imagine and poss Champ jumping dependent i'm just struggling to see him start much under 10s(would have to win both really) and i think many would wait closer to the fez and see how that Yard is going this year potentially. No right or wrong merely opinions, i wish you well.

if he won both the betfair chase and the KG, surely he would be 2nd favourite on the day to Al boum photo, no?

[Outlaw]

if he won both the betfair chase and the KG, surely he would be 2nd favourite on the day to Al boum photo, no?

Yeah Of course and if you think that happens you want to be backing him for the triple crown as you'd want to be cashing in that opinion if playing out.

[Istabraq]

if he won both the betfair chase and the KG, surely he would be 2nd favourite on the day to Al boum photo, no?

Always the same at this time of year but it’s a very deep renewal at this stage and there will be some serious Gold Cup challengers that don’t go to the King George, it’s near impossible to predict SPs at this stage.
What we all want is for them all to prove their ability and
wellbeing come March and then we can begin the battle of working out who might win...

[jono]

Personally I think they'd be mad to go KG with LIT, what's the point. Clearly didn't act round Kempton for whatever reason. Take in the Betfair Chase, miss Kempton and then either go straight to Cheltenham, or run in the Cotswold Chase. If he were mine that would be the plan

He'd be better in the Lexus vs KG

Very surprised about the negativity to Lostintranslation for the KG. Certainly them being mad to do so. It was surely too bad to be true last season? He bombed out at Haydock in 2018, so some had doubts about that track before he won the Betfair Chase on his second try at the track. I used Cue Card as the example of a horse who had a similarly bad first run in the race then finished 2-5-1-2. I've said before how to me LIT looks in a similar mould to Cue Card against some of the other Tizzard types like Native River / Elegant Escape. I'd be shocked if Kempton doesn't suit him.

I don't know if I agree with that.

I don't know if I disagree though.

I regards to LIT being a better bet for the KG - for me the Gold Cup will always be a harder race to win over the King George no matter what.
Monalee aside (and a few murmurings from Mullins) you won't have the Irish so the field won't be as deep.
Factor in the KG is 7 weeks away, GC 18 weeks away.
He'll have a dual KG winner to take on in Clan des Obeaux. But the same applies to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup, and I know the race and horse i'd fancy my chances against the most. Cyrname and then.....who?

I don't think they should rule out a King George crack based on last years run... I think someone mentioned Cue Card as a good example...

Me

[charlie]

Very surprised about the negativity to Lostintranslation for the KG. Certainly them being mad to do so.

Mad was probably OTT on my part Jono

[opatcho]

I’d be looking to double LIT for betfair chase and KG

Yards form is concern atm

LIT stretches for one as the race was unfolding, and that was game over. Think he would challenge this year as long as yard back to form

[Super Raven]

Very surprised about the negativity to Lostintranslation for the KG. Certainly them being mad to do so. It was surely too bad to be true last season? He bombed out at Haydock in 2018, so some had doubts about that track before he won the Betfair Chase on his second try at the track. I used Cue Card as the example of a horse who had a similarly bad first run in the race then finished 2-5-1-2. I've said before how to me LIT looks in a similar mould to Cue Card against some of the other Tizzard types like Native River / Elegant Escape. I'd be shocked if Kempton doesn't suit him.



Me

Totally agree. I almost think you can put a line through his performance in the KG (reaching at the jump) and just look at level of ability he shown in the betfair chase and the GC.

[Super Raven]

Away from LIT, I also think Delta Work at 40s is a great each way play. Had a hard campaign last season with 2 very good performances before heading to Cheltenham. His return wasn't his best but he always needs a run, if he is campaigned lighter and kept fresh he would definitely have a better chance, although he would have to improve to win.

[charlie]

Away from LIT, I also think Delta Work at 40s is a great each way play. Had a hard campaign last season with 2 very good performances before heading to Cheltenham. His return wasn't his best but he always needs a run, if he is campaigned lighter and kept fresh he would definitely have a better chance, although he would have to improve to win.

I completely agree. He's 7, a multiple Grade 1 winner over 3m, a festival winner, and came a very respectable 5th 6 lengths behind ABP. He made a mistake 7 out which left him last having to pass them all. He then made another mistake 5 out which cost him more ground. Jumped 4 out very well and travelled strongly to 3 out. By this stage I think the mistakes caught up with him and he was never going to win from there. If he'd jumped well he would have been bang there IMO and 40's EW is big