Champion Hurdle 2021

[FinalFurlong91]

Really?

6lbs advantage over a bunch of handicappers and grade 2'er, conditions also suited today... horse for courses and all that

5/1... jesus. Laughable

Does the 6lbs really mean anything when a horse wins by 20 lengths coasting after the last

I love how divisive this horse is

as someone who isn't in either of the two opposing camps it makes for good reading

[Carnage at Taunton]

I couldn't disagree with this as a statement more.


In fact, the whole thing.



Imagine saying that after literally every horse race.... Song For Someone for example, what price was he today before the race, what price was his to win today and...


It's absolutely ridiculous to shoe-horn that in as evidence a horse is a value bet.



Just because a horse wins, doesn't prove it was a value bet before.... as you could literally say "if any horse wins they're good value to have backed before".....



I hope this doesn't come across as rude, I just think it's one of the worst arguements I have ever, ever seen.

It really dont matter to me if i think thats rude or not Kev,and when posting on here one is open to crticism, no problem.
I think its come across wrong to be honest.
I was not trying to prove it was a value bet before, i merely said their were options before and he had showed form in the past that suggested it could be, and we all had a choice whether to go with what we had seen from him in the Triumph.......he was smashing horses that have good form this season in particular AT, or whether to go with what we saw lto, and decide he was not worth a bet........... Thats all.
Re 5/1 being a shit bet, i simply dont know if it is or not to be honest, but i do know that performance yesterday had to result in a lot shorter price than 20. Especially bearing in mind his form last season. People will make their own minds up about the price now as they will with any horse.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Sorry, just to add........i think should have reasoned why i dont know if 5/1 is a shit bet...............I think Goshen is capable of running a massive race in the CH, but i also think he could sulk and run poorly again. I think thats the horse. Thinking about it more, i probably would not take 5 right now, and wait until the day, although i very seldom take single figures ante post anyway..

[The King Pimm]

Epatante is 11/4 generally across most of the main bookmakers. She’s not going to run now until the festival, Henderson’s form is not as good as it should be this time of year, Nico is riding his poorly (he may not ride though being a JP horse) and Honeysuckle and Goshen are flavour of the month. I think 4/1 is a real possibility in price boosts and promotions

[Carnage at Taunton]

Really?

6lbs advantage over a bunch of handicappers and grade 2'er, conditions also suited today... horse for courses and all that

5/1... jesus. Laughable

One of those grade 2'er's comes out as virtually the same horse that beat Epatante last time.
Now, maybe SFS did not run his race yesterday, but he was beaten a distance.

[Quevega]

It really dont matter to me if i think thats rude or not Kev,and when posting on here one is open to crticism, no problem.
I think its come across wrong to be honest.
I was not trying to prove it was a value bet before, i merely said their were options before and he had showed form in the past that suggested it could be, and we all had a choice whether to go with what we had seen from him in the Triumph.......he was smashing horses that have good form this season in particular AT, or whether to go with what we saw lto, and decide he was not worth a bet........... Thats all.
Re 5/1 being a shit bet, i simply dont know if it is or not to be honest, but i do know that performance yesterday had to result in a lot shorter price than 20. Especially bearing in mind his form last season. People will make their own minds up about the price now as they will with any horse.

He's a hard horse to price up.
On the face of it it looks tight.
But if you ignore the flat runs, and the one before last.
The triumph and yesterday look very promising. No matter how much the other horses may have ran below form, he smashed them.

Honeysuckle is now the most solid proposition and should go off favourite.

But it would be no surprise now if Goshen runs a powerful race.
We may know after they've descended and start to make the turn towards the last, cos if he has not got either of the mares off the bridle then I'd say I'll relax (only a bit) but I'd be hopeful at that stage.
I hope he's not as good as he looked yesterday, for my bets sake.
But for the race it's really good news.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He's a hard horse to price up.
On the face of it it looks tight.
But if you ignore the flat runs, and the one before last.
The triumph and yesterday look very promising. No matter how much the other horses may have ran below form, he smashed them.

Honeysuckle is now the most solid proposition and should go off favourite.

But it would be no surprise now if Goshen runs a powerful race.
We may know after they've descended and start to make the turn towards the last, cos if he has not got either of the mares off the bridle then I'd say I'll relax (only a bit) but I'd be hopeful at that stage.
I hope he's not as good as he looked yesterday, for my bets sake.
But for the race it's really good news.

Totally agree.
Would also agree re being a hard horse to price up.
Spot on post imo.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I assume Goshen’s price is probably shorter than most people think it should be because of the weight of money already on him ante-post, prior to yesterday, following his Triumph success.

[Another Value Loser]

Well done to those who took the 20s pre-race and kept the faith. 5s (as short as 4/1 in places...) feels a bit short at the moment so it will be interesting to see how his price fluctuates as we approach the big day.

At the current price, I think I would prefer a place lay rather than backing the win at 5s/4s. Need to take a step back and review this market again though just to make sure I am not being swayed by any preconceived bias.

[Ice]

I've just found i had a Hills special with goshen, envoi and shishkin at a boosted 75/1.

[Bert]

So For Pleasure’s owner has backed him for this rather than the supreme

[TheRowebot]

So For Pleasure’s owner has backed him for this rather than the supreme

Him and Goshen will be some sight..

[Hurricane fly]

I assume Goshen’s price is probably shorter than most people think it should be because of the weight of money already on him ante-post, prior to yesterday, following his Triumph success.

This is a very good point, I’d be confident he was their biggest liability before racing started again and that wedge of money won’t have disappeared from their liabilities

[opatcho]

One of those grade 2'er's comes out as virtually the same horse that beat Epatante last time.
Now, maybe SFS did not run his race yesterday, but he was beaten a distance.

So we're now comparing form lines of the GB's horses, who all have been suspect and inconsistent?

SFS was pushed a long from the 4th. There's no maybe, SFS didn't run his race. SFS running his race makes him a sub-160 horse (OR 158)
SFS looks like a 2 miler, no surprise he did well in the International which is over the new course
Goshen was receiving 6lbs

Horses for courses
Wincanton is a very fast course and you really do need a horse that travels around it. The two-mile track there is one of the quickest in Britain and you run downhill virtually all the way from the home turn. If something poaches a lead turning in, chances are it won’t come back to you, so jockeys have to be very careful about positioning. Letting a rival get away from you at that point, especially one with stamina, can be disastrous. It’s certainly not unusual for the one in front at the second-last to stay there all the way to the line.


No surprise that a flat track horse that gallops and front runs has beaten what looks like a middle distance Grade 2 handicap who was struggling from the off, whilst also carrying 6lbs less

The GB form lines are a mess, which is often a noticeable warning sign. Don't get me wrong, I dont mind a improver who's finishing seconds in top graded races, particularly one that could be better at the Festival because conditions will suit....

However, Goshen is a 10/1 chance at best... appreciate the bookies are likely to react in the way they have done because of their AP positions. But still makes me laugh how short Goshen is.

Honeysuckle may have 1-2 negatives/doubts, same with Epatante and Sharjah.... but the rest of the field is a pile of sh*te.

I have the results as

1) Honeysuckle
2) Sharjah
3) Epatante. I may boost Epatante up is Hendo wins a few races today, and she looks clam and collected as she make her way day for this race

Sharjah at 16/1 is an insult, he could be the next My Tent Or Yours... a consistent horse that may not be good enough to win, but the W/O and place market for him will be where I'll be sitting now.

Tbh, with Goshen "coming back", he will set this race up for Honeysuckle (who has the pace to go with but stays) and Sharjah who will sit back and pick up the pieces

[opatcho]

Does the 6lbs really mean anything when a horse wins by 20 lengths coasting after the last

I love how divisive this horse is

as someone who isn't in either of the two opposing camps it makes for good reading

Yes it does

SFS ran like sh*t, probably ran up up to mark of 145

145 + 20 - 6 = 159

Lets say SFS didnt run that badly, and ran a 150 - which I very much doubt

150 + 20 - 6 = 164

So Goshen, in the best case scenario ran up to a 164. Good luck trying to beat either of the mares off a 164 whilst having to lump 7 lbs more on his back, in a race which is going to be more tactical, over a course (old) which may not suit

My position with Goshen hasn't changed

- he's a grade 2 horse, who can and will put the odd performance which is visually impressing
- he needs the race to go a certain way
- yet to be prove he's good enough in proper grade 1 companys
- only way he has a chance next move is if the going is soft-heavy, he gets a easy lead, and the Moore's just go hell for leather

Earlier in the week, 20/1 + was a good bet based on the above concerns and limitations.
At 5/1, you'd want to see more consistency, proven in the grade and proven in such company