Champion Hurdle 2021

[charlie]

The 'if I was the owner' betting strategy is apparently used quite a lot on here. It is seriously flawed, particularly where Willie is concerned.

There is also the argument that some owners (like Munir/Souede?) would prefer a sporting shot at the Champion Hurdle rather than an even money crack at the Mares. It will still be Willie's call but if he was so minded I don't think that they would take much persuasion.

From the owners mouth not mine

[Quevega]

Does he need 2 chances though? BDD would piss that current mares field without Concertista providing she stays on her feet no?

He knows he needs 2 chances (experience tells him this) and even then it don't always work out.
I think this really hinges on whether Willie thinks Concertista is good enough.

1, to be competitive in a champion hurdle (he didn't think BDD was last year)

and

2, to be his only serious dart in the Mares (against a likely stronger field, as I believe others would be put off if BDD were to also run, but would consider the race more if only Concertista was heading there)

Barring injuries shaking things up I expect he thinks neither.
Just my opinion though.

From my positions betting wise.
I'd fucking love it if Concertista runs in the Champion.

[jack1092]

Glens Melody was 6/1 but still 2nd fav, so he had 1st and 2nd favourites, same as in the race Limini & VVM were as well. He'd rather go to the mares double handed (or more on some occasions), which is not an opinion, that's exactly what he has done.

You can't honestly believe Willie thinks he can beat Honeysuckle with Concertista? She's only been beating Minella Melody, and she's rated almost 20lbs behind Honeysuckle.

The logic behind it, IMO, is flawed, and this coming from someone who, at the very start of the season thought Concertista could be a Champion Hurdle contender. I just don't see it now, and she's a bigger price (on the exchanges) if I did still think so, so it's not as if I've missed out on that front.

Also, using the logic that he has nothing for the Champion Hurdle, well he has even less for the Stayers so why not send Benie down that route? And then Concertista has the Mares Hurdle at her mercy.

That's not a bad cover bet either.

Exactly what he's done, in different circumstances, which i've pointed out.

Concertista is unexposed rated 153 in Ire, it's possible he'll fire on with just Sharjah, but Concertista isn't absolutely miles behind Honeysuckle + co.

[Lobos]

I do think Honeysuckle's performance in the ICH would put anyone off switching targets to the Churdle.

[jack1092]

Not had best of luck with that last fence over the years though has he ?
If you can have 2 good chances ?
Why not ?

Wouldn't just be two good chances though, it would be two even money shots if put to the race on their own. That seems to me almost a waste?

[Carnage at Taunton]

He knows he needs 2 chances (experience tells him this) and even then it don't always work out.
I think this really hinges on whether Willie thinks Concertista is good enough.

1, to be competitive in a champion hurdle (he didn't think BDD was last year)

and

2, to be his only serious dart in the Mares (against a likely stronger field, as I believe others would be put off if BDD were to also run, but would consider the race more if only Concertista was heading there)

Barring injuries shaking things up I expect he thinks neither.
Just my opinion though.

From my positions betting wise.
I'd fucking love it if Concertista runs in the Champion.

Betting wise so would i!! It would be great for the race if Concertista runs here, i do think shes probably the stables best hurdler now, If the stable dont think that however then shes no chance in the CH.
Anyway i hope the owners at least pose the question to the trainer.
If its all about more confident of winning for connections, then its a no brainer she goes Mares, she would piss that, BDD or no BDD.......imo of course.

[ComplyOrDie]

From the owners mouth not mine

Funny you bring this up. The owners have said the Mares Hurdle is the aim this season, already, haven't they?

Why change now the race has potentially become more difficult?

It's not their fault that Willies have flopped (pun absolutely intended)!

[Quevega]

Funny you bring this up. The owners have said the Mares Hurdle is the aim this season, already, haven't they?

Why change now the race has potentially become more difficult?

It's not their fault that Willies have flopped (pun absolutely intended)!

Probably ends the argument.

[Quevega]

Wouldn't just be two good chances though, it would be two even money shots if put to the race on their own. That seems to me almost a waste?

Yep, that would be the only thing, which is why I think if he does have concertista as his only serious entry that would say a lot about his opinion of her.
But the counter argument this season is the Mares chase seems similarly tied up for Willie at the head of the market.

The opposition may be key here as I've intimated already.

Roksana - who has a preferred and tougher target. & Put the kettle on (similar)

Willie may be interested in either strengthening a race to help overcome a serious rival or alternatively securing a race.

[charlie]

Funny you bring this up. The owners have said the Mares Hurdle is the aim this season, already, haven't they?

Why change now the race has potentially become more difficult?

It's not their fault that Willies have flopped (pun absolutely intended)!

Where was this?

Quevega I'd like to think of this as a *discussion not an argument

[Run4Home]

Where was this?

Quevega I'd like to think of this as a *discussion not an argument

In the RP was the below

I believe Concertista is more likely to run in the mares hurdle as shes more effective over two and a half mile. The champion hurdle entry is a back up

[Quevega]

Where was this?

Quevega I'd like to think of this as a *discussion not an argument

same thing, unless it's heated, and this isn't anywhere near.

[ComplyOrDie]

In the RP was the below

Yeah, and Anthony Bromley (or at least the Twitter account he is associated with (@agentbloodstock) tweeted back after her win over Christmas "All roads lead to the David Nicholson Hurdle
@CheltenhamRaces".

charlie

[charlie]

Yeah, and Anthony Bromley (or at least the Twitter account he is associated with (@agentbloodstock) tweeted back after her win over Christmas "All roads lead to the David Nicholson Hurdle
@CheltenhamRaces".

charlie

I don't think a bloodstock agent confirming the mares fav goes mares counts as an owner confirming target COD

It might be an argument now Q haha

She will probably end up mares COD, it was just a theory to open up to the forum to gauge thoughts - it seems some agree, some don't. I completely accept it falls under the 'unlikely to happen' bracket and I fully accept almost all of your counter points as good ones - I'm a little less accepting of being told it doesn't make ANY sense though

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't think a bloodstock agent confirming the mares fav goes mares counts as an owner confirming target COD

It might be an argument now Q haha

She will probably end up mares COD, it was just a theory to open up to the forum to gauge thoughts - it seems some agree, some don't. I completely accept it falls under the 'unlikely to happen' bracket and I fully accept almost all of your counter points as good ones - I'm a little less accepting of being told it doesn't make ANY sense though

He's their racing manager I believe. A bit like Frank Berry is to JP. A bit of a difference to just being a bloodstock agent.