Champion Hurdle 2021

[TheRowebot]

Ruby seemed dead set on the Mares for her on the latest Road to Cheltenham, for what it’s worth..

[Outlaw]

Good analysis Jonjo however that scenario plays out, fair play.

[Kevloaf]

In the Champion Hurdle in the last 5 years (probably not worth going back further as that was around the time they came onto the scene) they've had 6 runners (age in brackets)

2020 - 2 - Fusil Raffles (5) & Call Me Lord (7)
2019 - 0
2018 - 0
2017 - 2 - Footpad (5) & Sceau Royal (5)
2016 - 2 - Top Notch (5) & Peace and Co (5)

Just out of interest in the same period, the Stayers at 5 runners

2020 - 1 - L'ami Serge (10)
2019 - 2 - Wholestone (8) & Top Notch (8)
2018- 2 - Wholestone (7) & L'ami Serge (8)
2017 - 0
2016 - 0

It's of course only my interpretation but my take on their stance in the race as that is the natural festival race for their 5 year old horses following the Triumph hurdle the year prior. With 5 of their 6 runners fitting this profile. None have taken in the race for a second attempt (FR excluded)

The CH will always have a pull for many owners. It's THE Championship hurdle race at the festival. But i'm not sure their history of runners points to them re-routing the likely target of Concertista myself by any means. They've used the race for their 5 year olds before they go chasing the following season. There's no history of them forcing a horse into the race over another?

Of course she may well run in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the DRF and force her way into the race from there, but for now I see it as very unlikely that the owners will be pushing for her to come here. And for all the Irish 2m division has been a bit of a mess, Mullins could still go into the race with Sharjah, Saint Roi and Saldier. He's not light in the race and probably has the strongest hand to play if all 3 make it.

When I read (a few times) the owners have an agenda to run their horses in a Champion Hurdle I thought it was a little off but didn't put the time in to researching it. This backs up that it's a non-story for me.

However, I still think she's a fair price at 10/1 NRNB.... in my opinion though she'd be a worse bet at 10/1 NRNB if the 'owners love a runner', as you'd be backing her knowing she might run in the race despite it not proving to be her best anyway so she could be bigger than 10/1.

For me, I don't think the owners would get involved so much to change the target so she'd only run in the CH on merit (by winning or going very close in the Irish CH) - so she's a better NRNB for people that don't believe the narrative you've mentioned above


I haven't actuallly backed her NRNB for the CH yet, will see how a few others price it up....

[Quevega]

I don't think he'll even end up running Concertista in Dublin. FWIW.
Willie mentioned we'd see her in Dublin, but IMO the Quevega hurdle is much more likely.
But we'll see.
If one of his other's gets injured and can't turn up then you never know.

[Lobos]

I don't think he'll even end up running Concertista in Dublin. FWIW.
Willie mentioned we'd see her in Dublin, but IMO the Quevega hurdle is much more likely.
But we'll see.
If one of his other's gets injured and can't turn up then you never know.

That's a good point Q. Normally the Quevega Hurdle would not be considered as it is too close to the Fez . However I think there's a good month between races this year with Cheltenham being later ?

[Quevega]

That's a good point Q. Normally the Quevega Hurdle would not be considered as it is too close to the Fez . However I think there's a good month between races this year with Cheltenham being later ?

It's used every year by the top mare prospects, Laurina, Limini, Apples Jade, Stormy Ireland, Elfile.
And Annie Power ran in it before it was renamed, before she won the Champion hurdle.

[Lobos]

It's used every year by the top mare prospects, Laurina, Limini, Apples Jade, Stormy Ireland, Elfile.
And Annie Power ran in it before it was renamed, before she won the Champion hurdle.

Ahh right. Think it was just Honey that avoided it last year and took in the Irish Churdle as they felt the Quevega would be too close.

[Quevega]

Ahh right. Think it was just Honey that avoided it last year and took in the Irish Churdle as they felt the Quevega would be too close.

Sometimes it's three weeks away, and therefore not ideal for some trainers liking, just in case.
Most would prefer longer, especially for their better animals.
So you were on the right lines.

[HoldenTheReins]

Has their been any sort of news regarding Burning Victory?

[Lobos]

Has their been any sort of news regarding Burning Victory?

Yeah where is she?? I suppose she was very late to the party last year so maybe she's just another Benie and will rock up in the Mares Hurdle without a run or possibly have one a few weeks. Before the big day. That's what I'm going with anyway.

[Lobos]

Honey 7/1 NRNB has to be the play for everyone surely? I'd make her a 11/4 chance if she ran in it after winning ICH.

[Outlaw]

Honey 7/1 NRNB has to be the play for everyone surely? I'd make her a 11/4 chance if she ran in it after winning ICH.

Wouldn't you get more on a related double special ?

[Lobos]

Wouldn't you get more on a related double special ?

Not on NRNB basis

[Outlaw]

Not on NRNB basis

Correct but you'd want her to be winning to be going there, I can understand those with books taking the cover etc. Loads to play across various markets if that's the basis.

[Lobos]

Correct but you'd want her to be winning to be going there, I can understand those with books taking the cover etc. Loads to play across various markets if that's the basis.

Yes, win the ICH and I'm pretty certain she'll go for the English equivalent. Lose and she drops to the Mares Hurdle. I can't see connections thinking anything different than that. It's very straight forward to me. I watched her last 3 races back last night and the pace and acceleration she showed in each race to instantly pull 2/3 lengths clear and basically 'win' the races for her, shows to me she does have what it takes to win a Champion Hurdle especially with Epatantes poor show last time. Her jumping in the Hattons was very slick as well. 7/1 NRNB Churdle should be in everyone's book imho.