Champion Hurdle 2021

[Quevega]

NC
Surely it's not so much about what position you're in. With regard to a horse improving.

More about what position you're in relative to the pace/opposition and course etc.

If you're held up in a slowly/steady run race then you're likely to have it all to do to win the race, especially in a handicap when there may be an improving horse in a handier position when the taps are turned on.

And vice versa of course.

Sometimes. Things just pan out perfectly.
That definitely happened yesterday for Aramon. And not so much at Cheltenham.

The fast time is persuasive but timings comparisons are tricky at the best of times and a fast time is usually more about efficient use of energy and consistent sectionals. Therefore being up with the pace would have definitely helped.

The difficulty is weighing up such an impressive looking performance against him being a serious champion hurdle contender.

[nortonscoin200]

Well at the moment Saint Roi has it to do, and Aramon has been out since and done it... Aramon may be a better horse now, 11 lbs better as you say....

So I can't really argue on any of the points you've brought up.

My point is (and has been) that visually I was blown away by Saint Roi. Usually I would be skeptical and totally in agreement that we should prefer Aramon. It is just a personal hunch (and I can't back it up with the facts yet) that Saint Roi was absolutely chucked in...


I won't be disappointed if I'm wrong and Aramon is infact a better horse than Saint Roi, it'll confirm the more logical arguement that I usually abide by.... but every now and again I'm happy to go with my eye rather than the form book, and this is one such occassion.

As you say, 33/1 was worth asking the question, I did, and he's a bigger winner than Saint Roi for me at the moment...

The fact is I can't even be sure they won't fuck about the Saint Roi either and try and get him in a handicap somewhere.... I just hope not, as I think he's very, very good.

Relative to the rest of the market, I'd back Aramon and Saint Roi before anything shorter than either of them.... if I was starting from scratch.

Totally agree, you've just got to go with your instinct if something blows you away and 33-1 Aramon and Saint Roi are the best value bets in the race. I'd be more than happy if I was on board.

[nortonscoin200]

NC
Surely it's not so much about what position you're in. With regard to a horse improving.

More about what position you're in relative to the pace/opposition and course etc.

If you're held up in a slowly/steady run race then you're likely to have it all to do to win the race, especially in a handicap when there may be an improving horse in a handier position when the taps are turned on.

And vice versa of course.

Sometimes. Things just pan out perfectly.
That definitely happened yesterday for Aramon. And not so much at Cheltenham.

The fast time is persuasive but timings comparisons are tricky at the best of times and a fast time is usually more about efficient use of energy and consistent sectionals. Therefore being up with the pace would have definitely helped.

The difficulty is weighing up such an impressive looking performance against him being a serious champion hurdle contender.

I suppose the point I was trying to make Q is that the way I read the Galway Hurdle is that Patrick rode Aramon in a way that played to his strength and allowed him to show his full potential.

I just wonder - and it's no more than that because we only have last night's race to go on - if the way Paul Townend rode him in the County doesn't really suit the type of engine Aramon has under his bonnet.

Be interesting to see the tactics they deploy on Aramon next time out. It's possible the stable only stumbled across those tactics by accident. Ruby said afterwards that the race didn't pan out the way they expected it to at all.

I also agree entirely with you last sentence. That was an exceptional performance but you've got to make a pretty big leap to see him winning the CH.

[Quevega]

I suppose the point I was trying to make Q is that the way I read the Galway Hurdle is that Patrick rode Aramon in a way that played to his strength and allowed him to show his full potential.

I just wonder - and it's no more than that because we only have last night's race to go on - if the way Paul Townend rode him in the County doesn't really suit the type of engine Aramon has under his bonnet.

Be interesting to see the tactics they deploy on Aramon next time out. It's possible the stable only stumbled across those tactics by accident. Ruby said afterwards that the race didn't pan out the way they expected it to at all.

I also agree entirely with you last sentence. That was an exceptional performance but you've got to make a pretty big leap to see him winning the CH.

Yep.
I think if you think you're on the best horse, or one of the best in the race, then as long as the pace is not ridiculous, you ought to be near the pace.
You're just risking more if you hold a horse up.
Obviously some horses simply have to have some cover at least (cos they're stupid).
And they now know that Aramon certainly isn't one dimensional.

[Kevloaf]

I also agree entirely with you last sentence. That was an exceptional performance but you've got to make a pretty big leap to see him winning the CH.

That is definitely true.

As pleased as I am with Aramon (and Saint Roi), I still wouldn't get carried away with that being Champion Hurdle winning form. I think it makes them good value at the prices... but if the market leaders weren't so short I might not think that.

[Spectre]

I think it’s been captured in a nutshell in the last few posts I think. And this far out, even if you’re not totally convinced yet, it’s hard to argue that they both represent the value in the market and they need to be onside sooner rather than later. 20/1 and 25/1 respectively is much too big for the two horses that at this stage are 4th and 5th in the market when you take out the likely non-runners.

I won’t argue with the Saint Roi points made because I backed him a week after the Festival because I was convinced that it was a top quality County, plus I was already aware of the high regard they held Saint Roi in. He’s likely to be a big improver this season, but I also buy in to Norton’s theory about how the race was run, and I can easily see how Aramon reverses form, particularly off levels. Yet I can still see how Saint Roi can improve to be a mid-160’s horse.

I will almost certainly have these two plus Epatante running for me on the day, and I think we could be served up a bit of a treat of a Champion Hurdle this season, after a few average affairs. I’m pretty adamant that Aramon is at Epatante’s level now, but I have this thing nagging away that we’re due a 170 Champion Hurdler, and of the current crop with normal progression that’s more likely to be Epatante who’s entitled to improve herself.

[Lobos]

Eptante for me is still the horse to beat. She showed last year that she has all the attributes to potentially be a multiple winner of the race. She jumps quickly and accurately, she travels beautifully and can be placed anywhere in the race, and most importantly she has a devastating change of pace. All this suggests that if she gets to the race fit and well then the rest will find it hard to get past her and that ridiculous 7lb advantage and be running for places. I have backed her, Saint Roi and one other........ Concertista. I have a feeling that if she can make the necessary improvement from her scintillating performance in the Novice Mares then, with her able to claim half a stone as well, she could emerge as Epatante's biggest challenger.

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes, its easy to get carried away with reinforcing our own views on horses until you believe they cant lose.

Then you look at last years Champion Hurdle result and realise that Epatante wasn't in the Champion Hurdle market, until 30th November 2019, and started her season (on that day) rated 137, and with a big nasty "0" from her first Festival experience, and with no-one suggesting she was the best 2M hurdler in the land.

It only takes one run to change opinions.

On this day last year Darver Star was a Novice who had been running in Handicap Hurdles with a rating of 119.
I dont think anyone had him down to place in the Champion Hurdle either, on 1/8/2019.

[Lobos]

Yes, its easy to get carried away with reinforcing our own views on horses until you believe they cant lose.

Then you look at last years Champion Hurdle result and realise that Epatante wasn't in the Champion Hurdle market, until 30th November 2019, and started her season (on that day) rated 137, and with a big nasty "0" from her first Festival experience, and with no-one suggesting she was the best 2M hurdler in the land.

It only takes one run to change opinions.

On this day last year Darver Star was a Novice who had been running in Handicap Hurdles with a rating of 119.
I dont think anyone had him down to place in the Champion Hurdle either, on 1/8/2019.

Absolutely, that's what makes this game so addictive........ absolutely anything is possible.

[Kevloaf]

Yes, its easy to get carried away with reinforcing our own views on horses until you believe they cant lose.

Then you look at last years Champion Hurdle result and realise that Epatante wasn't in the Champion Hurdle market, until 30th November 2019, and started her season (on that day) rated 137, and with a big nasty "0" from her first Festival experience, and with no-one suggesting she was the best 2M hurdler in the land.

It only takes one run to change opinions.

On this day last year Darver Star was a Novice who had been running in Handicap Hurdles with a rating of 119.
I dont think anyone had him down to place in the Champion Hurdle either, on 1/8/2019.

I wonder how much of an anomoly that was last season compared to others.

Your point still stands though....fortunately I don't think anyone is that adament this far out.




If I had to pick the winner now I'd plump for Abacadabras, but at 7/1, everything that needs to be said has been said!

[Saxon Warrior]

I wonder how much of an anomoly that was last season compared to others.

Your point still stands though....fortunately I don't think anyone is that adament this far out.




If I had to pick the winner now I'd plump for Abacadabras, but at 7/1, everything that needs to be said has been said!

Yes, its getting prices we judge as "value" (at the time) for our selections, then reacting to the seasons form as it evolves.

I think the shorter the antepost price, the easier it is to become adamant that the horse will win.
All nonsense of course.

I would tend to wait until the day of the race, and the field are assembled, to judge my antepost book's chances. (last years Champion Chase went south, right at the last minute )

[The King Pimm]

I was going to post this last night but thought against it as I was drunk and it could be interpreted as the ramblings of a drunk fool. At least this morning I’m posting it as a sober deluded fool so aware of how daft it will appear.

Over the past few weeks I’ve been trying to limit what I’ve been spending on the flat after hammering my funds last summer so placing small stake bets throughout the week. As pathetic as it sounds I’ve found myself in the last chance saloon on a number of occasions trying to win my money back by cashing out Festival 2021 bets where the price is the same and unlikely to change any time soon. I have cashed out on Saldier 7 times in the past 3 weeks and found myself winning the last bet of each session to get the Saldier stake back plus some money to play with next time. I finally lost the Saldier stake on Friday and finally sinking the ship but yesterday had 2 free bets to play with from my failures at Goodwood and so put them in roll over doubles with Favs and Saldier and they both won. I appreciate this is very long winded and stinks of desperation but my point is that beyond all the statistics, form and expectations this is a strong sign to me that Saldier is a bet to keep. I had a very similar situation last year with PTKO where I cashed the bet out 3 times to play with money and instantly won a roll over double and did the same Imperial Aura twice. Other than the stars aligning and the mysterious wonders of the universe playing its tune I have nothing to back my thoughts up so I’m putting Saldier up for the Churdle next year based on these strange experiences.

[Quevega]

That's a better case/reasoning made for a horses chances than most given on here Pimm.
And suitably long winded as well
Saldier it is.

[Craigy14]

Perfect reasoning I would say haha!

I actually cashed Saldier the other day, to wait for an entry/news of his well-being.

Hopefully with that to come at some point be able to get back on at the same price, his forms rock solid, just unfortunate he doesn’t seem to make the track enough.

[Kevloaf]

I had an each way bet on Wembley (6/4) with Saldier, so I'm left with a 2 point 'win' bet "place only" at 2.825/1

Which, when writing it out, I can't understand why I haven't cashed out.




***Ah, it is with PP and the cashout is less than 1 point.




I have a Tiz The Law double with Saldier 'open'.



I am assuming he's not going chasing.