Champion Hurdle 2021

[Pendil]

Based on proximity of Petit Mouchoir to Aramon today compared to the distance he finished behind Epatante in the Churdle I make Aramon nearly finishing upsides the Mare. Have I got my lbs and lengths correct?

I think you didn't allow for 7lb claimer riding PM

[Lobos]

I know a few didn't see him as each way value in the Champion Hurdle at 33/1, but surely there are few more aboard the Aramon train and want him in their book now? I've seen one or two have commented but I'm genuinely surprised that more haven't. Perhaps people haven't seen the race yet, and therefore haven't looked at it in the context of his previous two runs. The County surely needs marking up significantly now.

There seems to have been more talk about Saint Roi, who admittedly I backed straight after the Festival, but Aramon's form in the County put's him ahead of Saint Roi, and these two races are a further improvement.

As I said I already had him as a much better horse than than the 14lbs he had to find with Epatante. I had him in the 158-160 bracket pre-race, and he won yesterday off top weight in an exceptionally good time, prominent all the way. I have him now alongside Epatante, and if he repeats the run-style at Cheltenham I belive him to be a contender.

The thing with improvers like Aramon is often people don't buy in to them until after the race,and they're left scratching their heads. We're more inclined to look at the races he was turned over in, and who he was turned over by earlier in his career, than to accept the significant amount of improvement he's shown.

Also people find it a leap of faith that a horse running in handicaps can win a Champion Hurdle. In this instance though he's doing it in big races off 155 and doing it easily. Yesterday, by anyone's calculations now puts him in the 160's, and in an open year he's no 20/1 shot, and he certainly wasn't a 33/1 shot prior to the race.

With those things considered the fact that he's still available at 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle is not a surprise, but it does still make him one of he best value horses in the current markets. At this point only Epatante has better form in the book because she's the reigning champ. Some will say Sharjah has, but I don't believe that to be true based on form in the last 6 months. The one's to watch out for are Abracadabras, Saint Roi (also a handicapper!), and Goshen, but all have to improve significantly now from their current marks to put them ahead of Aramon, and two of them are trading at ridiculously short odds.

As an aside, I already have Embittered backed for the Arkle at 50/1 and I'm very surprised those odds are still available with 365 this morning. I'll post him up in the correct thread with the rationale.

Aramon is bang there as a big contender now. His last two runs have been mighty Impressive. Not sure what they have done differently at home with him but it sure has worked. He's got a vast amount of racing experience with 36 runs in total and has a very good run/win percentage of 25%. 20/1 is too big. He's still 20/1 TWAR if people prefer that option over cash out.

[Outlaw]

Aramon is bang there as a big contender now. His last two runs have been mighty Impressive. Not sure what they have done differently at home with him but it sure has worked. He's got a vast amount of racing experience with 36 runs in total and has a very good run/win percentage of 25%. 20/1 is too big. He's still 20/1 TWAR if people prefer that option over cash out.

Where else would he go? anything rated 155> will be going to Ch again next season surely.

[Lobos]

Where else would he go? anything rated 155> will be going to Ch again next season surely.

Agree but if you don't need/want cash out then 20/1 TWAR is a no brainer on the tiny chance he may go elsewhere.....Stayers, Arkle.

[archie]

It's worth bearing in mind that Aramon was a Supreme Racing horse. Like several others, he was banned from racing just when his season was about to get under way. Although Willie kept them ticking over, their regime and programme was disrupted and they never got to run on the better autumn ground.

Let's get this straight. Everyone associated with the horse thinks that he is not as good in deep winter ground. It doesn't mean that he can't go on autumn, spring or summer soft, he just isn't as good on it. Basically, he was good yesterday and at Cheltenham, but the previous Cheltenham, where the ground went sloppy very quickly, his chance was gone.

They have always run him on the basis that he has one long run that should probably coincide with the final hurdle but yesterday they went from the front so that he didn't need that single run and was able to gradually ratchet up the pace while still retaining energy to repulse any final furlong challenge. I'm not sure that that will work in a G1 but you'd think that they would be bound to try it especially if the ground is on the soft side.

[IstabraqBarRegular]

I would worry a little about Cheltz ground in March, always has the word SOFT in it and that doesn't help Aramon. I thought he did frank the form of County Hurdle winner SAINT ROI, he looks a proper horse.

[Quevega]

Very impressive win yesterday
And he’s a definite contender due to the improvement he’s shown.
Respect for winning a competitive handicap off that weight.
There were plenty of handicappers in this years race as classy 2 milers are thin on the ground.

I’d temper enthusiasm on the basis that it’s July and we’ve had 2 races of any note that concern this division.

His win was visually impressive and statistically so. But it was a brilliant ride and the race could not have gone any smoother for him.
His main contenders all had issues of some kind a n the first half mile which were not helpful to their chances and significantly increased his

Would I back him ?
NO

He don’t act on soft

[Spectre]

The thing that backs his numbers up Q is how fast the races are. Yes there were some hard luck stories yesterday, but it would have taken a Champion Hurdle winning-type performance to beat him last night.

Would Sharjah have won the same race off his mark for example? A hypothetical and subjective question of course, but by comparison look at Sharjah's perfomances between Nov 17 and Nov 18, and you'd have written him off as any kind of contender until he beat an unfit Faugheen at Puncehstown, where he was also given a rating he didn't merit.

Aramon in my opinion has now produced two performances that are better than anything Sharjah produced before his second in last season's Champion Hurdle, and now one that's better than anything he's ever produced. And being realistic this seasons Champion Hurdle was far from the best. Darver Star in 3rd is a nice horse but nothing like a Champion Hurdle winner in a normal season. Petit Mouchoir was beaten 10 lengths in fifth which helps to tie the form back to Aramon too. You may concede that he's possibly second best now based on actual form in the book when compared to last seasons Champion Hurdle? With Abracadabras, Goshen, and Saint Roi to throw in to the mix for the future though.

The fact is yesterday evening's performance on the clock puts him bang alongside Epatante now, although I expect the handicapper will be more cautious than me. I already had him rated much closer to Epatante after his last two runs, so it makes sense for us to still be apart to some degree. The handicapper has to put him somewhere in the low 160's now though, and on the usual differences you see between the Irish and UK handicapper it won't take a leap of faith to match him to Epatante.

So it begs the question. Why back Saint Roi at 20/1 and leave Aramon out at 33/1 down to 25/1, when the former is likely to be rated somewhere near 20lbs lower than Aramon, and on County Hurdle form Aramon comes out best at the weights? For what it's worth I would revise Saint Roi's rating now anyway, but the point still stands. Why back Goschen 9/2 and not Aramon 25/1. Goschen is a juvenile, and they have a poor record in their second season. If he'd stood up I think he would have been a good winner of a poor Triumph, and to expect him to improve to the required level to be a Champion Hurdle winner is unlikely. In addition to that his price is a joke. Abracadabras, will be a contender I concede, but why back him at 6/1 and not Aramon 25/1 when he wasn't even the best two mile novice hurdler last season. He wasn't even the second best! He was neaten by Shishkin who met all sort of trouble in the Supreme, and prior to that he'd spent all season and last looking at Envoi Allen's backside.

I can only assume the reason people feel the way they do is because he's coming out of handicaps and was beaten by horses that wouldn't win a Champion Hurdle for twelve months between Feb 19 and Feb 20. But whether it's been a change of training regime, diet, or just the penny fully dropping, he has improved beyond all recognition since then. That's why his price is still 25/1 and a rick, because people can't forgive him the time he's needed to fully develop, and are ignoring the performances that are slapping them in the face on the clock and weight carried.

Finally I'll repeat again, the ground is already PROVEN not to be an issue for him. I prefer to look at the facts, and all the evidence says that he goes equally well on anything from soft to good. His best performance in his novice season was on soft ground, and his best performances since then have been either yielding or good to soft, so all we know so far is that he might not want heavy, and may not want good to firm! Also the progeny of his sire Monsun usually act on soft, and even heavy, so I'm perfectly satisfied that the ground thing is a complete myth, and Simon Claisse can do his worst prior to the Festival.

Each to there own of course, and there will be plenty of cases for horses that people make that I'll ignore myself. I usually end up regretting not listening though!

[JackieMoon33]

Playing devils advocate I think you can't just look at the current form and performances in isolation. Each of the horses mentioned for the Champion Hurdle are at different stages in their careers and open to various levels of improvement. You could argue that whilst Aramon has laid down a decent enough marker, how much upside does he have relative to the others, including the reigning champ?

Aramon (7yo) has had 25 career starts including 14 over hurdles
Saint Roi (5yo) has had 5 career starts including 4 over hurdles
Goshen (4yo) has had 10 career starts including 4 over hurdles
Abacadabras (6yo) has had 9 career starts including 5 over hurdles
Epatante (6yo) has had 9 career starts including 6 over hurdles

[Spectre]

It's a fair point Jackie, but I'll counter that with Rooster Booster, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly, and Annie Power who in recent times all won the Champion Hurdle at 8 or older. That's 5 from the last 17 Champion Hurdles so it's quite common for Champion Hurdlers to peak at that age, and after plenty of experience.

Close to on one in three winners, when I would guess the number of contenders of that age would be a considerably lower percentage is an excellent return. And if anything should confirm the need to have Aramon onside.

[Quevega]

I agree spectre
I’d much prefer aramon versus all the others mentioned at the prices.
Think epatante still best value bet though.
Obviously I was joking about the ground.
It was for the ground worriers specifically

[Kevloaf]

I know a few didn't see him as each way value in the Champion Hurdle at 33/1, but surely there are few more aboard the Aramon train and want him in their book now? I've seen one or two have commented but I'm genuinely surprised that more haven't. Perhaps people haven't seen the race yet, and therefore haven't looked at it in the context of his previous two runs. The County surely needs marking up significantly now.

There seems to have been more talk about Saint Roi, who admittedly I backed straight after the Festival, but Aramon's form in the County put's him ahead of Saint Roi, and these two races are a further improvement.

As I said I already had him as a much better horse than than the 14lbs he had to find with Epatante. I had him in the 158-160 bracket pre-race, and he won yesterday off top weight in an exceptionally good time, prominent all the way. I have him now alongside Epatante, and if he repeats the run-style at Cheltenham I belive him to be a contender.

The thing with improvers like Aramon is often people don't buy in to them until after the race,and they're left scratching their heads. We're more inclined to look at the races he was turned over in, and who he was turned over by earlier in his career, than to accept the significant amount of improvement he's shown.

Also people find it a leap of faith that a horse running in handicaps can win a Champion Hurdle. In this instance though he's doing it in big races off 155 and doing it easily. Yesterday, by anyone's calculations now puts him in the 160's, and in an open year he's no 20/1 shot, and he certainly wasn't a 33/1 shot prior to the race.

With those things considered the fact that he's still available at 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle is not a surprise, but it does still make him one of he best value horses in the current markets. At this point only Epatante has better form in the book because she's the reigning champ. Some will say Sharjah has, but I don't believe that to be true based on form in the last 6 months. The one's to watch out for are Abracadabras, Saint Roi (also a handicapper!), and Goshen, but all have to improve significantly now from their current marks to put them ahead of Aramon, and two of them are trading at ridiculously short odds.

As an aside, I already have Embittered backed for the Arkle at 50/1 and I'm very surprised those odds are still available with 365 this morning. I'll post him up in the correct thread with the rationale.

From paragraph one, I don't fall into the camp that needed convincing. After making the case for Saint Roi (early-ish on here, maybe first?) When you highlighted it, I backed Aramon at 33/1 out of respect for the ratings in the county.

I'd also backed him for the Galway Hurdle at 10/1 (I think somebody had a bit of a dig at me about it actually) with a view to the Champion Hurdle ... along the lines of "you must be expecting a big run off top weight"... and I said I was, and obviously very happy with the way things have gone.

Not after timing, it's all on these pages


The point I want to pick up, is that you seem to be questioning why people would be talking up Saint Roi over Aramon at this stage.

Below is from my diary section.....

Saint Roi for the Champion Hurdle at 25/1 with B365

Reasoning:

I’m blown away watching this back. Saint Roi has put the County Hurdle to bed after the last. Four horses jump together at the last, 3 of them are involved in a photo for 2^nd/3^rd/4^th at the line… and in that time, Barry has absolutely shot away. I’m too lazy to check this right now, so please correct if it’s wrong but it seemed to be a well run race, and he’s just absolutely thrashed them.

I’m trying not to get carried away but I’d forgotten just how good that looked. He was getting 12 lbs from Aramon (149) and beat him 4.5L officially, but I’d back Saint Roi off level weights if they met again, I feel like he had loads up his sleeve the way he’s put them away and the way he travelled into the race.


The Supreme winner Shishkin is now rated 159, Saint Roi has only gone up to 149 (same mark as Aramon had). Would Aramon have been beaten 10l in a Supreme? He was beaten 11.5L in Klassical Dream’s Supreme so it’s feasible (albeit incredibly loose) to say that if I think Saint Roi would beat Aramon off levels he’d have been in with a shout in the Supreme? Memory is fuzzy on this but didn’t Mullins say he may have been a Supreme horse but for the mark?


Anyway, the point of looking back at a race is to look to the future and 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle is the stand out price and it’s with 365. Just before I back it, I’m going to watch the Triumph and the County side by side to see where how they match up. ***Done*** that was fun! The County starts off at a stronger pace. By the time Goshen makes his move at the end of the back, he’d have been clear of Saint Roi though meaning he injected some pace. At the last I have him there 4 strides before Saint Roi…. Now we don’t get to see Goshen’s finishing efforts but I doubt he’d have been quicker from the last to the line than Saint Roi was? Compared to the rest of the Triumph field, I have the county considerably ahead too.


In this unscientific (although moderately scientific?) approach, Saint Roi wouldn’t have been that far down on him and he’d have been something to aim at! He’s 5 times the price of Goshen, and let’s not forget, Goshen didn’t complete and stumbling over your own feet isn’t a positive no matter how you spin in.



I’m going to back Saint Roi. It’s speculative but having done this exercise of watching everything back, not many things have got me excited to part with my cash, and that has.

I'd add that, there is just no way we saw the roof of Saint Roi's ability at any stage before the County, and although it's literally impossible to make the literal case with the weights, I genuinly believe Saint Roi would beat Aramon off levels still, so the better Aramon gets (and he has improved I think it's fair to say), the better, as it means Saint Roi has less to find.

Officially he has too much to find, but I cannot for 1 minute believe Saint Roi only won because he was so well in. I think time will show that Aramon really did run in to a handicap good thing.







Aramon is a bigger winner at this stage for me though, but it's July still

[Lobos]

Backed Saint Roi @ 20/1 again today. Now my second biggest 'winner' behind PTKO. I can't wait to see him this season..........neither can Mark Walsh I suspect.

[nortonscoin200]

From paragraph one, I don't fall into the camp that needed convincing. After making the case for Saint Roi (early-ish on here, maybe first?) When you highlighted it, I backed Aramon at 33/1 out of respect for the ratings in the county.

I'd also backed him for the Galway Hurdle at 10/1 (I think somebody had a bit of a dig at me about it actually) with a view to the Champion Hurdle ... along the lines of "you must be expecting a big run off top weight"... and I said I was, and obviously very happy with the way things have gone.

Not after timing, it's all on these pages


The point I want to pick up, is that you seem to be questioning why people would be talking up Saint Roi over Aramon at this stage.

Below is from my diary section.....




I'd add that, there is just no way we saw the roof of Saint Roi's ability at any stage before the County, and although it's literally impossible to make the literal case with the weights, I genuinly believe Saint Roi would beat Aramon off levels still, so the better Aramon gets (and he has improved I think it's fair to say), the better, as it means Saint Roi has less to find.

Officially he has too much to find, but I cannot for 1 minute believe Saint Roi only won because he was so well in. I think time will show that Aramon really did run in to a handicap good thing.







Aramon is a bigger winner at this stage for me though, but it's July still

Kev I agree with you that visually Saint Roi was a very impressive winner of the County. I also agree with you that after watching the County it was possible to make a casse for Saint Roi beating Aramon at levels.

But IMO it's necessary to change the way you view the County form in the light of Aramon's performance at Galway.

You claim it's fair to say he has improved - and an RPR of 163 for Galway compared to a 155 rating for his County performance would support that view.

But is it simply the case that Aramon is simply a better horse than he was in March or are other factors in play.

I reckon it's the later.

It is entirely possible that the yielding ground at Galway suited Aramon better than soft at Cheltenham.

But I don't think that's the main reason for the improvement.

I've just gone back and watched the County yet again and Aramon was held up right at the back for most of the race. He was still fourth last two out and had several lengths to make up on Saint Roi at that stage.

Paul Townend was asking an awful lot of him to make up that ground and go on to win the race. To Aramon's credit he passed everything else and made up another length or two on Saint Roi between the second last and the winning post.

Fast forward to last night where Patrick rode Aramon in a far more positive manner at the head of the field. IMO that is what has brought about the bulk of the improvement which led to Aramon notching a career best RPR.

Using Buildmeupbuttercup as the yardstick, Aramon improved by about 11lbs from Cheltenham to Galway.

Surely racing up with the pace has got to be the way to go at Cheltenham for Aramon in future.

Would he have beaten Saint Roi with Patrick in the saddle deploying those tactics? Obviously we'll never know but last night he looked like a horse who stays two miles extremely well and is suited by a gradual build-up of pace off the front end - rather than coming late with an electric burst.

My own view is that Aramon would have got a lot closer to Saint Roi using those tactics - close enough to make us think Saint Roi wouldn't beat him at levels.

The County was the fastest run race on Gold Cup day - the time of 4mins 2.42secs was 3.8seconds quicker than Burning Victory in the Triumph.

The Galway Hurdle was by far the fastest race at the track last night. Aramon's time of 3mins 41.2secs was 5.2 seconds quicker than Bua Boy in the handicap hurdle half an hour earlier and 6.6 seconds quicker than Guinevere in the novice hurdle opener.

I'm well aware the two tracks are very different and what works at Galway may backfire at Cheltenham.

But on Aramon's only other run at Cheltenham - an 11 length 6th behind Klassical Dream in the Supreme - he was again held up right out the back by Paul Townend and made up ground into third - going well - approaching the last. But again soft ground and the effort of getting in contention took it's toll and Aramon faded up the hill.

He's almost certainly a better and stronger horse now than he was then and I love him to bits.

But is he the next Rooster Booster - the only horse to win the County Hurdle and go on to take the CH this century, also aged 8 the same as Aramon next March?

I think at 33-1 it was certainly worth asking the question.

If he goes off at the front end on ground better than soft Aramon will certainly make the next CH a very searching test. I could quite easily see him finishing in the frame - and ahead of Saint Roi.

But I'm a bit sceptical of using a terrific performance in the County as a flashing light for the following season's CH.

Alderwood is the only other County Hurdle winner in the last 20 years to win again at the Festival. He hosed up in the Grand Annual after being backed into 3-1.

[Kevloaf]

Well at the moment Saint Roi has it to do, and Aramon has been out since and done it... Aramon may be a better horse now, 11 lbs better as you say....

So I can't really argue on any of the points you've brought up.

My point is (and has been) that visually I was blown away by Saint Roi. Usually I would be skeptical and totally in agreement that we should prefer Aramon. It is just a personal hunch (and I can't back it up with the facts yet) that Saint Roi was absolutely chucked in...


I won't be disappointed if I'm wrong and Aramon is infact a better horse than Saint Roi, it'll confirm the more logical arguement that I usually abide by.... but every now and again I'm happy to go with my eye rather than the form book, and this is one such occassion.

As you say, 33/1 was worth asking the question, I did, and he's a bigger winner than Saint Roi for me at the moment...

The fact is I can't even be sure they won't fuck about the Saint Roi either and try and get him in a handicap somewhere.... I just hope not, as I think he's very, very good.

Relative to the rest of the market, I'd back Aramon and Saint Roi before anything shorter than either of them.... if I was starting from scratch.