Champion Hurdle 2021

[Lobos]

Noticed Aramax has an entry on Friday evening in a 2m flat race at Navan along with Felix Desjy

Be good to get a TWAR price on Aramax but none quoted.

[Kevloaf]

Assuming Abacadabras sticks to hurdles, he’d have to be a big player here.. already been nibbled at the past couple of months and taking out Shiskin and Envoi assuming they go chasing it’s the strongest novice form on offer

Yeah, I certainly agree - hopefully reappears in the Morgiana and we see him up against a Mullins battalion to see where the novice is from last season.


I'm hopeful of a "to win race X and the CH" on him at some point.

[Istabraq]

Assuming Abacadabras sticks to hurdles, he’d have to be a big player here.. already been nibbled at the past couple of months and taking out Shiskin and Envoi assuming they go chasing it’s the strongest novice form on offer

Yeah I like Aba and didn't have him covered in the immediate aftermath of last seasons festival but I managed to hoover up a fair bit of the 200/1 Sky special on Shishkin to win Arkle, Envoi Allen to win any race and Aba to win Champion Hurdle.
He was around 10/1 at the time and I see he's 7/1 and shorter now so he's been very well supported since...

[Lobos]

Yeah I like Aba and didn't have him covered in the immediate aftermath of last seasons festival but I managed to hoover up a fair bit of the 200/1 Sky special on Shishkin to win Arkle, Envoi Allen to win any race and Aba to win Champion Hurdle.
He was around 10/1 at the time and I see he's 7/1 and shorter now so he's been very well supported since...

Think 10/1 was a fair price for Aba but 7's doesn't interest me. Too short.

[Hardy Eustace]

Yeah I like Aba and didn't have him covered in the immediate aftermath of last seasons festival but I managed to hoover up a fair bit of the 200/1 Sky special on Shishkin to win Arkle, Envoi Allen to win any race and Aba to win Champion Hurdle.
He was around 10/1 at the time and I see he's 7/1 and shorter now so he's been very well supported since...

Yep, that was a really good request a bet - I missed the 200/1 but have a bit on at 100/1 which still seems fair enough to me.

[nortonscoin200]

Willie's entered Sharjah in a 44k 2m handicap on the flat at the Galway festival where he'll be up against Dalton Highway again.

https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2020_ONOR172.PDF?id=1&v=20200716025409

[Pendil]

PP are sleeping 25/1 Aramon still 25/1

[fatherjohn]

billys still 20s any race (22 with boost)...that feels good value in case he is aimed at something else

[Kevloaf]

Saint Roi done no harm there, for my legion of followers

[Pendil]

Saint Roi done no harm there, for my legion of followers

Very true, just going to back him

[Faugheen_Machine]

Saint Roi done no harm there, for my legion of followers

I haven't backed him yet, maybe I should!

[Lobos]

Saint Roi done no harm there, for my legion of followers

One of first horses I got on after coming back from Fez week. Huge chance. I like .

[Kevloaf]

I haven't backed him yet, maybe I should!

Yes, I take that as a personal slight

[Lobos]

Based on proximity of Petit Mouchoir to Aramon today compared to the distance he finished behind Epatante in the Churdle I make Aramon nearly finishing upsides the Mare. Have I got my lbs and lengths correct?

[Spectre]

I have Aramon as a much improved horse and ahead of his mark. Whether he's ahead enough of a 'Saint Roi' type in the Galway Hurdle remains to be seen, but you'd expect him to run well nonetheless. He won't necessarily need to win to be marked up.

Also there are Champion Hurdle comparisons being made on here to some of the very best winners of the last two decade. Which the last Champion Hurdle wasn't, and nor is next seasons likely to be. Let's face it people were talking about horses like Darver Star and Cornerstone Lad as possible winners! We are not in a golden era of Champion Hurdlers by any stretch of the imagination, and it's likely that another low 160's horse wins it again.

Currently Epatante is 162, Abracadabras is 158, Goshen is 158, and Saint Roi is 148. she gets her allowance so they need to find 11 pounds or more with her. Notionally Aramon needs to find 14 pounds but I'm not having that at all. There is form that suggests that he's already closer than that, and that his new mark is lenient. Plus if he was entered in a UK handicap the UK handicapper would definitely apply another 3-5lbs of tax making him a 158-160 horse. That is still a shade below where I currently have him. I accept the others mentioned are also likely improvers, although I have doubts about Goshen.

On a line through Petit Mouchoir who ran his usual race last week, and is a reliable yardstick for handicapping, and his weight giving performance in the County, Aramon simply can't be far that away from Epatante in terms of ability. 155 is underrating the level he's capable of running to. Also Willie and Townend are on record as saying there's more to come as they left some to work on before last weeks race.

Also if you think the race we just saw is irrelevant summer form (and also ignore the County), take a look at Sharjah's similar campaign taking in the Grimes and the Galway hurdle, and compare his performances and his mark to Aramon. Look at their marks going in to the their respective races, and also remember this is Willie we're talking about. I reckon he knows the time of day, and if he thinks Aramon is capable of winning those two race off his marks, and thought the same about Sharjah, then there's another line of form to consider which puts Aramon much closer to Epatante than he's being given credit for.

The question that remains outstanding for me is how good could the new kids on the block be? One or two of them could end up being special and improving past Epatante, but also they may not progress at all, I accept that many don't/won't agree with me, and you can pick holes in my rationale, but it's also very feasible. I'm talking about an each way bet on a 33/1 horse, not single figure prices, so I reckon that's a price worth having onside, when he should be half that price at best.

I know a few didn't see him as each way value in the Champion Hurdle at 33/1, but surely there are few more aboard the Aramon train and want him in their book now? I've seen one or two have commented but I'm genuinely surprised that more haven't. Perhaps people haven't seen the race yet, and therefore haven't looked at it in the context of his previous two runs. The County surely needs marking up significantly now.

There seems to have been more talk about Saint Roi, who admittedly I backed straight after the Festival, but Aramon's form in the County put's him ahead of Saint Roi, and these two races are a further improvement.

As I said I already had him as a much better horse than than the 14lbs he had to find with Epatante. I had him in the 158-160 bracket pre-race, and he won yesterday off top weight in an exceptionally good time, prominent all the way. I have him now alongside Epatante, and if he repeats the run-style at Cheltenham I belive him to be a contender.

The thing with improvers like Aramon is often people don't buy in to them until after the race,and they're left scratching their heads. We're more inclined to look at the races he was turned over in, and who he was turned over by earlier in his career, than to accept the significant amount of improvement he's shown.

Also people find it a leap of faith that a horse running in handicaps can win a Champion Hurdle. In this instance though he's doing it in big races off 155 and doing it easily. Yesterday, by anyone's calculations now puts him in the 160's, and in an open year he's no 20/1 shot, and he certainly wasn't a 33/1 shot prior to the race.

With those things considered the fact that he's still available at 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle is not a surprise, but it does still make him one of he best value horses in the current markets. At this point only Epatante has better form in the book because she's the reigning champ. Some will say Sharjah has, but I don't believe that to be true based on form in the last 6 months. The one's to watch out for are Abracadabras, Saint Roi (also a handicapper!), and Goshen, but all have to improve significantly now from their current marks to put them ahead of Aramon, and two of them are trading at ridiculously short odds.

As an aside, I already have Embittered backed for the Arkle at 50/1 and I'm very surprised those odds are still available with 365 this morning. I'll post him up in the correct thread with the rationale.