Champion Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I think NC is just highlighting the fact that being an 8 year old is not a negative in the CH.

Being a 10 year old is clearly a negative but I don't see being an 8 year old as damaging to a horses chances.

Faugheen would surely have added to the list of it weren't for injury.

Surely it's relative to the horses (that have achieved it) ability though?

Are we saying Aramon is up there with Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Annie Power & Hurricane Fly? Personally, not even close!

I have no doubt Faugheen would have But again, another horse who is clear of Aramon, IMO.

[ComplyOrDie]

Aramon nothing to do with me so anything I know is hearsay. Bunkoffearly could probably put you straight but respect for other owners and confidentiality may, understandably, be issues.

You'd have thought that the Galway Hurdle is a natural progression and then see where they go from there. It wouldn't be impossible off 155 but others may be better handicapped. Shanning (I used to have a share) started joint favourite last year off 136 and would have gone very close but for losing several lengths at the start. As far as I know, she's still on 136.

No worries, for some reason I thought he was something to do with you

[archie]

Interestingly, Aramon's flat mark has gone up from 62 to 66. The big QR handicap at Galway is 70-100 and you wonder if they might try to get qualified for that as well.

[Spectre]

I have Aramon as a much improved horse and ahead of his mark. Whether he's ahead enough of a 'Saint Roi' type in the Galway Hurdle remains to be seen, but you'd expect him to run well nonetheless. He won't necessarily need to win to be marked up.

Also there are Champion Hurdle comparisons being made on here to some of the very best winners of the last two decade. Which the last Champion Hurdle wasn't, and nor is next seasons likely to be. Let's face it people were talking about horses like Darver Star and Cornerstone Lad as possible winners! We are not in a golden era of Champion Hurdlers by any stretch of the imagination, and it's likely that another low 160's horse wins it again.

Currently Epatante is 162, Abracadabras is 158, Goshen is 158, and Saint Roi is 148. she gets her allowance so they need to find 11 pounds or more with her. Notionally Aramon needs to find 14 pounds but I'm not having that at all. There is form that suggests that he's already closer than that, and that his new mark is lenient. Plus if he was entered in a UK handicap the UK handicapper would definitely apply another 3-5lbs of tax making him a 158-160 horse. That is still a shade below where I currently have him. I accept the others mentioned are also likely improvers, although I have doubts about Goshen.

On a line through Petit Mouchoir who ran his usual race last week, and is a reliable yardstick for handicapping, and his weight giving performance in the County, Aramon simply can't be far that away from Epatante in terms of ability. 155 is underrating the level he's capable of running to. Also Willie and Townend are on record as saying there's more to come as they left some to work on before last weeks race.

Also if you think the race we just saw is irrelevant summer form (and also ignore the County), take a look at Sharjah's similar campaign taking in the Grimes and the Galway hurdle, and compare his performances and his mark to Aramon. Look at their marks going in to the their respective races, and also remember this is Willie we're talking about. I reckon he knows the time of day, and if he thinks Aramon is capable of winning those two race off his marks, and thought the same about Sharjah, then there's another line of form to consider which puts Aramon much closer to Epatante than he's being given credit for.

The question that remains outstanding for me is how good could the new kids on the block be? One or two of them could end up being special and improving past Epatante, but also they may not progress at all, I accept that many don't/won't agree with me, and you can pick holes in my rationale, but it's also very feasible. I'm talking about an each way bet on a 33/1 horse, not single figure prices, so I reckon that's a price worth having onside, when he should be half that price at best.

[Bunkoffearly]

If you look back at aramon best runs they were on goodish ground , going down by a neck to klassical dream, winning grade 1 novice at Christmas at leapordstown and last Friday beating petit mouchoir giving him 11 pounds

As a small owner in aramon watched in horror at the deluges before supreme novice he ran in and again at aintree that blunted his turn of foot

What are the chances of goodish ground first day at fez - very remote I imagine

[Quevega]

Obviously nothing wrong with being 8 in a champion hurdle although usually you'd need to have been a graded winner/previous cheltenham winner from memory. Not an improver out of handicaps as such. Rooster Booster ??

Don't buy the ground bullshit for Aramon either.

The County he ran so well in behind another (Saint Roi) also touted for the champion hurdle at fancy prices. Looks a bit shit on paper.
We'll not know for sure about the form for a while but it does look a bit shit.

The race Aramon won the other day looked pretty ropey to me. Lots of non triers and the obligatory runaway leader making it hard to weigh up and easy to disguise joggers.

Wonder Laish looked a clear non trier to me and looks a cert for Galway, or some valuable handicap in the summer.

Can Saint Roi and/or Aramon improve further and be contenders in the Champion hurdle ??

Of course they can/could.
But they probably won't.

We've had one hurdle race of any note since March and the winner is being talked about as a potential champion hurdler.
Surely last season won't happen again, where every winner of a hurdle race was mentioned as a contender.
be the longest thread in history if so.

[Kevloaf]

We've had one hurdle race of any note since March and the winner is being talked about as a potential champion hurdler.

Inevitable, but I don't think that's the reason alone.

Last season Petit Mouchoir's had 2x Seconds and 1x Third in Grade Ones... beaten less than 7 lengths combined!
He was a respectable 5th in the Champion Hurdle.


What price would Abacadabras be if he beat Petit Mouchoir giving him 11 lbs? Or Goshen?

Whilst it's undeniable that the younger unexposed horses are open to much more improvement, I can't see how people can knock a 33/1 shot as much as they are.


It's an obvious bet (if you back more than one in a race) to get in the book at 33/1!


The market is priced (as usual) on up-and-comers, it's why Sharjah is 25/1 still etc...



Bar Epatante(4/1), who sets the standard and may improve, there only look to be Goshen and Abacadabras throwing their names in the hat, so is Sharjah over priced? I think he is of course, but he'll never get the attention because he's exposed. Politilogue, Special Tiara (different race obviously) but both sprung into my head immediately as overlooked horses that did cause upsets and the festival is littered with big priced, proven placed horses coming back and doing it again.


If Aramon was 16/1 it wouldn't appeal as much, as it'd be closer to a fair price. 33/1 is just too big.



...and while I'm talking CH, I'll reiterate that given the visual impression I had from Saint Roi, I think he's going to be worthy of the conversation too, although you can easily knock him through Aramon if you wish, but it's not a strict handicapping arguement as to why I like Saint Roi. I think he'd beat Aramon off level weights already.

[ComplyOrDie]

Inevitable, but I don't think that's the reason alone.

Last season Petit Mouchoir's had 2x Seconds and 1x Third in Grade Ones... beaten less than 7 lengths combined!
He was a respectable 5th in the Champion Hurdle.

Consistent, on his day (I'm a fan of his), but on a 15 race (including chases) losing run, hardly an inspiring horse to beat. Ultimately he seems to ALWAYS find at least one too good nowadays, not sure why this is, but he does. I guess his run style may have something to do with it.

You're not wrong about Sharjah etc... though, but I'd rather have him than Aramon at 33's, as it happens have backed neither for now, and be surprised if I end up with Aramon at any point this season.

[Lobos]

Quoting them 5 alongside a case for Aramon, is clutching, IMO. They were far superior to what Aramon is, again, IMO.

In fact you've probably enhanced the 8 year old stat, by showing what level a horse you have to be to win at that age.

Could I give Aramon a small place shot? Yes, although you'd need a couple to falter. After the festival I put Aramon in my list as a potential (given the weight he gave to Saint Roi), but hadn't realised his age, for some reason I thought he was a bit younger than he was, no idea why! I'd rather back Saint Roi now though out of the pair, and even then I think that one has a fair bit on his plate.

I am surprised they haven't given fences a shot too, though is a flat bred, and I'd imagine they would have at least schooled him over them, though archie may be able to confirm.

Agree completely. The 8yo's that have won the race cannot be mentioned in the same breath as Aramon.

[Lobos]

33/1 is about right I'd say for Aramon to win Churdle. Not for me though. I'd be looking at around 6's maybe to be placed top 6. If I were a place man, which I'm not, that'll be the most sensible bet. Can't entertain him winning. Plenty will improve past him and Epatante for me is still the winner and amazing value at 4/1 for such an impressive winner and that ridiculous allowance!

[Lobos]

Inevitable, but I don't think that's the reason alone.

Last season Petit Mouchoir's had 2x Seconds and 1x Third in Grade Ones... beaten less than 7 lengths combined!
He was a respectable 5th in the Champion Hurdle.


What price would Abacadabras be if he beat Petit Mouchoir giving him 11 lbs? Or Goshen?

Whilst it's undeniable that the younger unexposed horses are open to much more improvement, I can't see how people can knock a 33/1 shot as much as they are.


It's an obvious bet (if you back more than one in a race) to get in the book at 33/1!


The market is priced (as usual) on up-and-comers, it's why Sharjah is 25/1 still etc...



Bar Epatante(4/1), who sets the standard and may improve, there only look to be Goshen and Abacadabras throwing their names in the hat, so is Sharjah over priced? I think he is of course, but he'll never get the attention because he's exposed. Politilogue, Special Tiara (different race obviously) but both sprung into my head immediately as overlooked horses that did cause upsets and the festival is littered with big priced, proven placed horses coming back and doing it again.


If Aramon was 16/1 it wouldn't appeal as much, as it'd be closer to a fair price. 33/1 is just too big.



...and while I'm talking CH, I'll reiterate that given the visual impression I had from Saint Roi, I think he's going to be worthy of the conversation too, although you can easily knock him through Aramon if you wish, but it's not a strict handicapping arguement as to why I like Saint Roi. I think he'd beat Aramon off level weights already.

Agree with Saint Roi. One of first bets I had after Festival. Right age, right connections, improvement a plenty, travels great, jumps well, can be ridden as you like, ground not an issue, impressive acceleration, nice AP price. If there is to be a danger to Epatante, he is it. I'm on the bus

[Saxon Warrior]

I think ARAMON is all about the Galway Hurdle.
I fancy him a lot for that race, and hopefully he is a price to have a bet, and get a payout to put towards Cheltenham betting.

[DeeBee]

Assuming Abacadabras sticks to hurdles, he’d have to be a big player here.. already been nibbled at the past couple of months and taking out Shiskin and Envoi assuming they go chasing it’s the strongest novice form on offer

[Lobos]

Anyone have any thoughts on Boodles winner Aramix? Quoted at 40/1 for this but I could see him perhaps going down the Coral Cup route. One or two average runs then Boom ! He is deffo on the Lobos radar. Watch this space.

[Ballybeen]

Noticed Aramax has an entry on Friday evening in a 2m flat race at Navan along with Felix Desjy