Champion Hurdle 2021

[TigerRolllllll]

Henry de Bromhead would be the happiest trainer today, after that race.

Jason the Militant nearly beat them all, and registered a 2nd race (this time 2lb worse off with Aba) finishing level with Abacadabras.
I cant see any reason that Abacadabras wouldnt finish upsides Jason the Militant in March either, unless HdB chooses not to run him as his second or third pick.

Aspire Tower got the biggest form boost for HdB and I am sure the trainer will be looking forward to the Grade 1 at Christmas with him.

Honeysuckle could have very few opponents in two weeks time, looking at the 2M4F Hattons Grace entries, she will most probably lead and grind them out of contention.
That would lead Henry on to the 2M Irish Champion Stakes to determine if she is the best in Ireland.

Mark Walsh mucked up big-time after Saint Roi travelled up to take an inside position at the home turn, only for MW to pull him back in, and then clouted two hurdles when riding up the backsides of the leaders, blocked in.

Saint Roi looked like a Cheltenham natural on only his third hurdles run, back in March, and its clear from that run that he needs a strong run championship-pace race to bring out the best of him, (no need to see him pulling too hard in the Champion Hurdle).
Maybe JP and Willie will bring Elixir Dainay (or something else that can lead) in the Irish Champion Hurdle to assure a fast pace.

Saint Roi remains my preferred horse from Ireland, and I would expect him to pick up a Grade 1 on the way there if he gets a decent pace in one of the races, and JP has enough horses to ensure that, it he wants too.

Saxon makes a good point about the ride on Saint Roi....contrast that to Honeysuckle at Chelt when inside gap opened......what was he doing!

Also think faster pace suits Saint Roi and poss Aba too

But, just can’t see any beating Epatante even if she does not improve....and quite likely she will

i will however look at Goshen in win FF and CH mkt.....his price is poor, but flat runs were not that bad if look at previous flat. Wrong age, but a threat I still need to cross off

JP 1-2 still for me most likely

[TigerRolllllll]

Just to expand on Goshen.....and why we can’t ignore

Yes the price is poor and he will be 5.....I hate both

But, Triumph form looks good.....he would have slaughtered Aspire Tower, who beat 2 of these

His flat runs as I have said before were identical timing and ratings to his previous.....so no form drop and might be part of the way his season plan is done (bizarre as it is)

FF will tell us a lot, but the win that and CH mkt is one to look at......or back him at 5s and then reinvest....as is he wins he will be fav

Must stress I’m not a fan.....tho nice for team if he wins.....but he is the horse I feel has the unknown potential that could make him the one

[FinalFurlong91]

It would seriously blow this race wide open if goshen was to beat epatante in the fighting fifth

Hopefully they both turn up

[Run4Home]

For me, this is exactly why she's easy to look past IMO. It's a case of will she or won't she, then multiplied by two.

I do think it's worth a discussion though as any horse with nine 1's next to their name that could potentially go here is always going to attract support at 16/1, but for me I have zero interest, here's why:

Firstly, I don't think she'll end up here and the mares hurdle atm is by far the more likely race. There is no NRNB and she'll be suspended in play for cash out, so that in itself is risk number one.

Secondly, for me the only way she lines up in the CH is if she wins the Irish Champion Hurdle far more impressively that she did in 2020. Will the race next year be as weak as the race this year? Doubt it. She had zero excuses not to win this years race more impressively and do enough to convince connections to take their chance in the CH. It was her 3rd run of the season so she would have been fit, she got the dream ride from RB with no traffic and a clear site of every obstacle, but ultimately, she didn't win the race with enough authority, or jump quick and low enough to convince connections to go here. So she has to take her chance in the race again, which could be more competitive, then has to win the race with more authority and I think that's lots of dot's that need connecting, so risk number two.

Thirdly, could she win a Champion Hurdle? We know over 2m she's just about got the beating of Darver Star and Petit Mouchoir, which looks shit, even more so now, and when you look at how Epatante brushed aside DS doing handstands you wonder how much Honeysuckle would have to improve to get close to her (and others in the field). Epatante jumps like a champion hurdler, honeysuckle doesn't. Epatante is all speed, honeysuckles best trip is 2m4f (proven by every piece of form we have, and owner comments). Simply not being good enough is risk number three, and when I hear she's been schooling over fences (and jumps high anyway) I just ask myself if that's the way you'd train a champion hurdler.

So collectively, I just don't buy it, but that's not to say I am against changing my mind. If she pisses up in a competitive Irish Champion Hurdle and connections say she's going here then at that stage I'd happily weigh up my options with her. Sure, her price will be 3 times smaller but I'll have tons more information to base my decision. I'd happily then, under the right circumstances make a bet and stake more, but I won't feel as if I've missed out on any value because as it stands right now I don't think 16/1 is a value bet, for the reasons stated.

Who agrees? Disagrees? (Lobos )

I think you have basically covered everything here that I wanted too

Without going into each point

• Her 2 mile form is poor - jumped poorly, struggled to beat Darver and Petit. Would I be backing her without seeing her jumping at a 2m pace again? No.
• Probably doesn't even show up here
• If she does likely playing for a place behind Epatante from what we have seen to date. With our eyes and ratings at 2miles

Struggle to see an appeal at this stage of having her in the book

[charlie]

Let's say Epatante got injured.... who are these other horses that she would struggle to beat?

Sharjah? Goshen?

In Ireland, we're hoping it's Saint Roi, Abacadabras or Saldier... but two of those have been out and not really enhanced their claims (I still would fancy them BUT it's not conclusive?) and Saldier's best pieces of form are a long time ago, they'll meet in a couple of weeks and if she beats him, although over further, it hardly enhances his claims?

Whilst I agree with most of what you're saying, this division is not deep at all? Bar the standout Epatante.... I'm not sure where she slots in. Her class means she's at least a 'player' in the division....again, taking Epatante out, who can we conclusively say would beat her?

Fair point Kev, it's not a deep division. Hard to 'conclusively' pinpoint what beats her (taking out Epatante) because I don't think we've seen some of (or certainly the best of) the main protagonists yet (we might not know who they are - this time last year Epatante was just an ordinary mare who finished down the field in the mares novice ).

Your question is a good one, but it's posed (forgive me if I've got this wrong) as if naming horses who could beat her over 2m is going to be really difficult cause she's such a great 2 miler?!? The question has to be taken in the context of over 2m and based on 2m form, not what she has achieved over intermediate trips, which has been brilliant.

I'd be surprised over 2m if Abacadabras, Saint Roi and Saldier weren't good enough to beat her. Aba has been talked about a lot and I think on better ground in a bigger field come March he'd be too quick for her. Same can be said for Saldier. Saint Roi is more of a question mark. Then you have others like Goshen, Sharjah (who I know she beat), improvers like Aspire Tower - even a BVD returning back to anywhere near his best could easily beat her over 2m, even at the age of 10. She only has to find one too good (if she turns up at all), and I don't think I've named a single horse that's not being aimed here specifically

[Quevega]

Saying honeysuckles 2 mile form is poor is silly (me being polite)
it ignores the fact that a poor jump at the last probably made it look harder.
it ignores the fact darver star was third in the champion hurdle
It also ignores the fact that Sharjah was well beaten in the same race.
and it was her only run over 2 miles since her second start.
The Irish champion hurdle - a grade 1

she should be clear second favourite now and were it not for the doubts about her running here. She would be.
All the runners behind Epatante aside from her. Have shitloads to prove.

[Spectre]

It was just an unsatisfactory race wasn't it. Both of them clearly want a true run race to be seen at their best.

They both come out of it with some credit in my opinion though. Abacadabras has proven (to me at least) he can put is head down, and Saint Roi had the guts to battle back after the shocker of a ride Mark Walsh gave him.

The race itself will have no bearing (plus or minus) on the outcome in March, and didn't do anything to show where either are in the pecking order. The bookies still took the opportunity to cut both Epatante and Saldier though.

[charlie]

Saying honeysuckles 2 mile form is poor is silly (me being polite)
it ignores the fact that a poor jump at the last probably made it look harder.
it ignores the fact darver star was third in the champion hurdle
It also ignores the fact that Sharjah was well beaten in the same race.
and it was her only run over 2 miles since her second start.
The Irish champion hurdle - a grade 1

she should be clear second favourite now and were it not for the doubts about her running here. She would be.
All the runners behind Epatante aside from her. Have shitloads to prove.

Was her 2m form good enough to place her in this race? No
Was the last her only poor jump? No
Does Darver Star set the CH standard? No
Is Sharjah's form remotely consistent enough for us to draw any meaningful conclusions? No
Why do you think it was only her second start over 2m? (I can't say 'no' to this one)
Was the Irish Champion Hurdle a deep race? No

FYI - I'd rather be called a c*nt than silly

[Quevega]

As 2 mile grade 1s go
Last years Irish champion hurdle was deep enough.
the actual champion hurdle had a few sausage rolls and
slices of cold pizza added. But not much deeper.
epatante aside.

she would need to jump better for sure to beat epatante and if she’s iffy with her jumping then some lesser horses would get nearer to her.
but IMO she would deservedly be second favourite and if they went NRNB tomorrow. She would be.

As I said earlier the horses behind epatante have it all to prove one way or another and honeysuckle has probably the least to do.

[Quevega]

And YES her 2 mile form puts her as placing in this race.
why on earth not?

[charlie]

As 2 mile grade 1s go
Last years Irish champion hurdle was deep enough.
the actual champion hurdle had a few sausage rolls and
slices of cold pizza added. But not much deeper.
epatante aside.

she would need to jump better for sure to beat epatante and if she’s iffy with her jumping then some lesser horses would get nearer to her.
but IMO she would deservedly be second favourite and if they went NRNB tomorrow. She would be.

As I said earlier the horses behind epatante have it all to prove one way or another and honeysuckle has probably the least to do.

I was convinced you were going to call me a c*nt then!!

I am being picky. For me the strength of that race and quality of the win was reflected in their eventual decision not to go here.

They may risk it and go here but I doubt it. Your namesake proved there's plenty of glory coming back to cheltenham time and time again and winning.

[Quevega]

I was convinced you were going to call me a c*nt then!!

I am being picky. For me the strength of that race and quality of the win was reflected in their eventual decision not to go here.

They may risk it and go here but I doubt it. Your namesake proved there's plenty of glory coming back to cheltenham time and time again and winning.

Don’t get me wrong
I think they may go for the mares again
especially if epatante carries on her form.
although on paper before last year’s festival I’d have said the champion would have been a better option V taking on benie.
especially when the ground looked like coming up heavy.
but they’ll probably do the opposite this year.
which would make them cunts.
although to be fair to them it turned out well the last time.

[Lobos]

Let's say Epatante got injured.... who are these other horses that she would struggle to beat?

Sharjah? Goshen?


In Ireland, we're hoping it's Saint Roi, Abacadabras or Saldier... but two of those have been out and not really enhanced their claims (I still would fancy them BUT it's not conclusive?) and Saldier's best pieces of form are a long time ago, they'll meet in a couple of weeks and if she beats him, although over further, it hardly enhances his claims?


Whilst I agree with most of what you're saying, this division is not deep at all? Bar the standout Epatante.... I'm not sure where she slots in. Her class means she's at least a 'player' in the division....again, taking Epatante out, who can we conclusively say would beat her?

OMG, Kev's even writing my posts for me now ! Exactly this. I still think Epatante wins even with Honey in the race but she will be her biggest threat at level weight. I don't even think she'll need to win the ICH impressively. If she wins it, she goes to the English version, simple as. They simply won't miss out on this opportunity before going chasing next season. The only way she'll go Mares Hurdle again is if she loses fair and square in the Irish Churdle. She has to win the Hattons Grace first but I'm taking that as a given.

[billymag]

I think i heard or read an interview with Willie recently where he said that Saint Roi did the best piece of work that theyve seen on their gallops, did anyone else see this or have I misheard or made it up. Thanks for any help cheers

[SharpHat]

I think i heard or read an interview with Willie recently where he said that Saint Roi did the best piece of work that theyve seen on their gallops, did anyone else see this or have I misheard or made it up. Thanks for any help cheers

Yes he said that prior to the last festival, not recently