Champion Hurdle 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

Goshen should be entered tomorrow for Saturday’s Elite Hurdle, if the trainer sticks to his latest plan.

That should be an informative race, one way or another.

[Kevloaf]

They are only value if they win.

Trying to find the winner is always the primary point of antepost.

Epatante is the likeliest winner because this season has barely started.

If the Champion Hurdle was today then 7/2 would look fair.

Just been thinking of how best to explain why I disagree so strongly....

"They are only value if they win."


I can prove that isn't true. If you back EVERY horse, in any race, you will win. However, you will NEVER make a profit doing that!

Therefore, value is not defined by having the winner. Value is about having a price BETTER than the actual chance of winning a race.

If you had 1 bet and found the 1 winner of every race, then that would be profitable, but that is not achievable, you can't do that, no-one can - and therefore finding VALUE (in terms of horses priced bigger than their chance of winning) is the only sustainable way to make money at this game.

It's why your bet on Pretty Gorgeous at 66/1 is a good value bet. She's now much shorter, if she runs she'll be shorter again, so it's a good bet even if she's beaten. I am staggered you don't agree you've made a good bet there UNLESS she wins?

Saxon Warrior

[Saxon Warrior]

We are missing the “devil” emoji,........as I was only playing devils advocate.
I really do understand Value, we all do, it’s what we all think each time we place a bet.

When I said “fair value” to me, fair value means worth a bet, it’s a fair price.

[Kevloaf]

We are missing the “devil” emoji,........as I was only playing devils advocate.
I really do understand Value, we all do, it’s what we all think each time we place a bet.

When I said “fair value” to me, fair value means worth a bet, it’s a fair price.

Also playing devil's advocate when you said Annie Power wasn't a good bet at 2/1 in the Mares Hurdle that she fell in?

[Istabraq]

Interesting discussion on value.
Whilst you have multiple accounts and aren’t restricted you have the benefit of finding and using value, however, sometimes you have to lose some value and take a worse price just to be able to have the bet you want, the alternative is not bothering.
Anyone in here that has the luxury of picking and choosing which bookmaker to use should count themselves fortunate and take advantage whilst that option exists...

[Viking Flagship]

I don’t really want to get super geeky but it’s my job so I will (insert devil emoji)!

‘Market value’ is what something is worth on the open market in an arms length transaction between a willing buyer and willing seller (boring but bear with me). It assumes that everyone has all the market knowledge and it basically is supposed to reflect the ‘going rate’. It assumes everyone has all the knowledge, so is actually pretty rubbish from a betting perspective.

‘Fair value’ (or ‘Worth’) on the other hand is an investment approach to valuation and the key difference is that it is specific to the individual investor. It’s the estimated value of an asset between knowledgable and willing parties BUT reflective of the interests of each party. This is much closer to the valuation approach most of us use when assessing ante post markets (I think/hope).

The simplest way people tend to understand valuation is in respect of houses. If most 3 bed semis in your area sell for £200k but you buy one for £220k many people will look at that and think you got bad value - they are purely looking at market value. However those people might not realise that there is something you’ve seen/know about the house (eg it’s ability to be extended) or something they just don’t view as important (eg it’s proximity to a particular school). And these things mean it has much more ‘fair value/worth’ to you as an individual - so you will pay more. These people will contest that you paid more than market value (which seems bad) but may miss the point that you actually still got ‘fair value’.

‘Fair value/worth’ is not something that is easily defined but it is something we should strive for in the gambling world as we are able to share knowledge that potentially allows us all to achieve it (even if that is slightly contradictory as fair value is different to everyone - hence the purpose of a discussion forum!!). Buying at ‘market value’ is a piece of piss and not something profitable investors/gamblers are generally bothered with.

[Outlaw]

Interesting discussion on value.
Whilst you have multiple accounts and aren’t restricted you have the benefit of finding and using value, however, sometimes you have to lose some value and take a worse price just to be able to have the bet you want, the alternative is not bothering.
Anyone in here that has the luxury of picking and choosing which bookmaker to use should count themselves fortunate and take advantage whilst that option exists...

Whilst having full accounts certainly makes life easier getting the full range of prices, the basic theory is still the same take a price you deem is in your favour. It really doesn't matter if the only account you have is 1pt shorter than others if you deem it value still(frustrating thou admittedly)

[Istabraq]

Whilst having full accounts certainly makes life easier getting the full range of prices, the basic theory is still the same take a price you deem is in your favour. It really doesn't matter if the only account you have is 1pt shorter than others if you deem it value still(frustrating thou admittedly)

Yeah I agree Outlaw, though the value you are taking is at a lower level than others can get, something you just get used to...

[Saxon Warrior]

Also playing devil's advocate when you said Annie Power wasn't a good bet at 2/1 in the Mares Hurdle that she fell in?

Yup, that Devil Emoji is sorely missed.

[Saxon Warrior]

I don’t really want to get super geeky but it’s my job so I will (insert devil emoji)!

‘Market value’ is what something is worth on the open market in an arms length transaction between a willing buyer and willing seller (boring but bear with me). It assumes that everyone has all the market knowledge and it basically is supposed to reflect the ‘going rate’. It assumes everyone has all the knowledge, so is actually pretty rubbish from a betting perspective.

‘Fair value’ (or ‘Worth’) on the other hand is an investment approach to valuation and the key difference is that it is specific to the individual investor. It’s the estimated value of an asset between knowledgable and willing parties BUT reflective of the interests of each party. This is much closer to the valuation approach most of us use when assessing ante post markets (I think/hope).

The simplest way people tend to understand valuation is in respect of houses. If most 3 bed semis in your area sell for £200k but you buy one for £220k many people will look at that and think you got bad value - they are purely looking at market value. However those people might not realise that there is something you’ve seen/know about the house (eg it’s ability to be extended) or something they just don’t view as important (eg it’s proximity to a particular school). And these things mean it has much more ‘fair value/worth’ to you as an individual - so you will pay more. These people will contest that you paid more than market value (which seems bad) but may miss the point that you actually still got ‘fair value’.

‘Fair value/worth’ is not something that is easily defined but it is something we should strive for in the gambling world as we are able to share knowledge that potentially allows us all to achieve it (even if that is slightly contradictory as fair value is different to everyone - hence the purpose of a discussion forum!!). Buying at ‘market value’ is a piece of piss and not something profitable investors/gamblers are generally bothered with.

Love this VF.

[ComplyOrDie]

Goshen entered in the G2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday. Don't think the opposition is up to much in terms of what would be heading to a Champion Hurdle, though Master Debonair also holds an entry.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It'll be interesting to see how they price it up.

[ComplyOrDie]

It'll be interesting to see how they price it up.

Yeah, I probably didn't give the opposition as much respect as I should have because on official hurdles ratings Goshen isn't that far ahead at all. Only 1lb ahead of Sceau Royal, 2 ahead of Ballyandy, 3 ahead of Song For Someone, all a bit tight really. That said, you'd be expecting big improvement from Goshen, so this could have him 10lbs ahead by the end of the race. Hopefully he won't be too short as I'd quite like to back him haha!

[Quevega]

Yeah, I probably didn't give the opposition as much respect as I should have because on official hurdles ratings Goshen isn't that far ahead at all. Only 1lb ahead of Sceau Royal, 2 ahead of Ballyandy, 3 ahead of Song For Someone, all a bit tight really. That said, you'd be expecting big improvement from Goshen, so this could have him 10lbs ahead by the end of the race. Hopefully he won't be too short as I'd quite like to back him haha!

It's lovely to see Ballyandy find a role in life.
He is now the barometer for how shit (or not) the second season hurdlers are.

[Lobos]

Yeah, I probably didn't give the opposition as much respect as I should have because on official hurdles ratings Goshen isn't that far ahead at all. Only 1lb ahead of Sceau Royal, 2 ahead of Ballyandy, 3 ahead of Song For Someone, all a bit tight really. That said, you'd be expecting big improvement from Goshen, so this could have him 10lbs ahead by the end of the race. Hopefully he won't be too short as I'd quite like to back him haha!

On a sharp track like Wincanton I'd fancy Sceau Royal may have too much pace for Goshen. He was very impressive off a big weight in the Welsh Champion Hurdle.