Champion Hurdle 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

That is such an odd thing to hear from you!

They aren't only value if they win.


If you had 10000/1 on Annie Power for the Mares Hurdle, would she had been bad value?





The fact she could get injured is why you factor that in to the price. You have to get there, saying she's 7/2 and going to be shorter on the day is right, because she would actually be there on the day! Hence less risk.



Look at Buveur D'air, getting a freak splint in his hoof during a race? There are so many things that could go wrong. What about the classic 'stepping on a stone', or Altior's puss hoof, or CPS this season?


That is exactly why you don't back horses single figures ante post as a general rule.

You don't win enough from when it goes right compared to when it doesn't.





To say 7/2 is value now because she'd be shorter on the day is a naive way to look at it.

OBVIOUSLY people would back her at 7/2 on the day, but do you people not record non-runners as losers? Lobos doesn't record anything but I'm shocked at your first sentence there SW, shocked to my very core

Ultimately they are only value if they win.

We all have our value judgements and our bets pre-race - which is opinion, and some logic.

Then we find out..

7/2 Epetante is fair value, if we assume say the top 20 in the market all run, and they race this week.
That would include horses she has never run against before including Honeysuckle, Saldier, Saint Roi, Abacadabras, Goshen, Aspire Tower, Elixir D’Ainay, Marie’s Rock etc,........... maybe even Shishkin would run if you ran it this week, before going chasing.

She would be fav, but she wouldn’t be odds on.

[Saxon Warrior]

I'm completely with SW. You have to understand that there are many ways to play this game. I personally play the same way, i do not back horses I dont believe can win, I build a book based on who I see as the likeliest winners of each race, it works for me. Its not that price is irrelevant obviously, but its not the priority.

However I understand there is another methodology people use, where if you could get 25s on a horse you see as a 16-1 shot, you would take that because its value to you. Whether or not you could actually see that horse winning becomes less important because its essentially about the maths at that point.

I’m on your path, with this.

I think if I made a book on Festival antepost races, then I would be hoovering up all prices that could shorten, with cashout, and see who wins, without necessarily needing to care who it is.- I don’t do this.

I’m trying to resist the urge not to miss big prices on horses that are shortening if I realistically don’t think they would win an average version of the race (be it the Arkle, or Supreme etc).

I want a focussed group of 3 horses at most in any race, often 2 or even 1.

I wouldn’t take 7/2 on any horse antepost 5 months in advance, to me it’s not an acceptable antepost price for a single win bet, this far out.

[charlie]

Ultimately they are only value if they win.

I respectfully disagree with this SW.

I know 'value' means different things to different people but by definition, value means taking the odds of a wager, and comparing it to the actual chance that the horse will win. To me that means value has nothing to do with whether the horse wins or not, because value means odds taken in relation to a horse’s chance of winning.

To explain that, how many of us have had decent price ante post-bets go down the pan due to race variables? A poor jump at the last? Horrific ground? Poor ride from the jockey? I could list hundreds.

Does my 20/1 ante post bet lose any notion of 'value' due to a poor jump at the last that costs it the race by a nose?

[Outlaw]

Ultimately they are only value if they win.

We all have our value judgements and our bets pre-race - which is opinion, and some logic.

Then we find out..

7/2 Epetante is fair value, if we assume say the top 20 in the market all run, and they race this week.
That would include horses she has never run against before including Honeysuckle, Saldier, Saint Roi, Abacadabras, Goshen, Aspire Tower, Elixir D’Ainay, Marie’s Rock etc,........... maybe even Shishkin would run if you ran it this week, before going chasing.

She would be fav, but she wouldn’t be odds on.

I'm rolling out the old cliché here....
Your mate in the pub says this coin I've got keeps landing on heads far more often than tails so ill flip it and give you 2/1 it lands on tails.
Whatever the outcome it's a good bet, every outcome shouldn't be judged in isolation as playing the odds is all about long term to go with the variance that naturally comes with it providing you are taking above true odds(your long term records will tell you if you are or not)

[Quevega]

Ultimately they are only value if they win.

We all have our value judgements and our bets pre-race - which is opinion, and some logic.

Then we find out..

7/2 Epetante is fair value, if we assume say the top 20 in the market all run, and they race this week.
That would include horses she has never run against before including Honeysuckle, Saldier, Saint Roi, Abacadabras, Goshen, Aspire Tower, Elixir D’Ainay, Marie’s Rock etc,........... maybe even Shishkin would run if you ran it this week, before going chasing.

She would be fav, but she wouldn’t be odds on.

It’s wrong to assume they’ll all run.
surely a part of antepost punting and finding good value vs true value is working out the likely runners vs unlikely ones.
the longer there is to go then obviously shit can happen and change so shorter prices are less attractive to many. But the individual may perceive that the price is still value.
I personally don’t think 7/2 is right now but I can understand why someone would as it’s not beyond reason that she’s much shorter on the day.

[Kevloaf]

Ultimately they are only value if they win.

We all have our value judgements and our bets pre-race - which is opinion, and some logic.

Then we find out..

7/2 Epetante is fair value, if we assume say the top 20 in the market all run, and they race this week.
That would include horses she has never run against before including Honeysuckle, Saldier, Saint Roi, Abacadabras, Goshen, Aspire Tower, Elixir D’Ainay, Marie’s Rock etc,........... maybe even Shishkin would run if you ran it this week, before going chasing.

She would be fav, but she wouldn’t be odds on.

"Ultimately they are only value if they win."

So literally, would Annie Power have been value in 2015 if you had her at, let's say.... 2/1?

When she fell at the last so did not win, you would say anyone who had her at 2/1 didn't have VALUE?


When she LOST at 4/5, if I had 2/1 I would not in any way think I had bad VALUE.

I am still staggered. That seems fucking mental to me. It reminds me when I got scooby to say Presenting Percy wouldn't be a good value bet at 100/1 for the RSA.

[Saxon Warrior]

"Ultimately they are only value if they win."

So literally, would Annie Power have been value in 2015 if you had her at, let's say.... 2/1?

When she fell at the last so did not win, you would say anyone who had her at 2/1 didn't have VALUE?


When she LOST at 4/5, if I had 2/1 I would not in any way think I had bad VALUE.

I am still staggered. That seems fucking mental to me. It reminds me when I got scooby to say Presenting Percy wouldn't be a good value bet at 100/1 for the RSA.

You had Value until she fell.

[charlie]

You had Value until she fell.

But value is price in relation to chance of winning, not actually winning. We all place ante post bets knowing we're not going to make any money for months, but we do it because we think the horses chance is significantly better than the current odds, and therefore we think we have value at the time, regardless of eventual outcome. IMO it doesn't matter whether a horse falls, runs off, refuses to start etc, if I back a horse at 33/1 now for Cheltenham and it goes off 5/1 then I have a great value bet because come race day its actual chance of winning is deemed 5/1, and I have a much bigger price.

The 'if the race was run tomorrow' argument is completely redundant IMO because with 4+ months to go there are loads of things that can significantly influence a horses chances, and therefore, the value. Epatante might be value at 7/2 were the race tomorrow, but that price doesn't factor in injuries, other challengers, poor performances etc, which can all occur over the next 4+ months.

[Quevega]

You had Value until she fell.

That's much better than not having value and falling though.

And also a lot better had she won ! vs someone who backed her cos they thought she was the most likely winner at 4/5 !
I know who would win the most money long term.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/a...sful%20betting.

I'm pretty certain you understand the importance of value, but the link above is a very good explanation of why it's a fundamental element in betting startegy. But For anyone who's not followed other posts, like Charlies - Kev's or Outlaw's, then have a read.

[Spectre]

I’ve been MIA for the last week so haven’t had a chance to contribute to the Abacadabras debate. I recorded all the racing while I was away though, and in the preliminaries Aba definitely looked as though he was carrying more condition than usual. Gordon says he blew up, and to be fair to him he will usually say a bad run is a bad run, and admits when he can’t explain it. He might mess around with handicaps but I generally find him to be straight up with his top horses, and the visuals also suggest it’s true.

Surely it’s also obvious that the comparison to a second place beaten in a driving finish with Shishkin, is a million miles away from being turned over by Aspire Tower and finishing upsides Jason The Militant. That alone should give a compass on his fitness on the day, and given he blew up I’d be marking his performance up, and not regard it as a negative for his chances in March.

I’d also say that reading some of the more recent debate on various race threads, there’s been a general overreaction to first runs, both positive and negative. Lest we forget the likes of Faugheen was never at his best on his seasonal debut, and Willie was never too concerned about him being turned over by his own stablemates first up. Racing is littered with Champion horses that have been beaten through the season before coming good in March. Similarly beating up on inferior opposition will mean nothing come March.

Back to the point, I’m not saying Aba is the Champion Hurdle winner, but I wouldn’t dream of bailing on him either. He’s one that needs judging as the season unfolds. As a second season hurdler he’s entitled to improve with more racing anyway, and he’ll meet the Mullins battalions in a couple of those good races before March, so then we can get a proper line on him.

[Lobos]

Betting on the Morgiana would suggest that Saint Roi is heading there. Do people think he will ? I personally think Mullins will find something easier for his next run and then step him up in class

[Kevloaf]

Betting on the Morgiana would suggest that Saint Roi is heading there. Do people think he will ? I personally think Mullins will find something easier for his next run and then step him up in class

Mullins runners in the Morgiana
2015 - 3/5
2016 - 3/5
2017 - 1/4
2018 - 3/4
2019 - 3/4

I'd say he'd have no issue running a few in the race.... so I expect Saldier and Saint Roi there at least. Maybe Sharjah too?

[Lobos]

Mullins runners in the Morgiana
2015 - 3/5
2016 - 3/5
2017 - 1/4
2018 - 3/4
2019 - 3/4

I'd say he'd have no issue running a few in the race.... so I expect Saldier and Saint Roi there at least. Maybe Sharjah too?

I'd just be a little worried it'll be a race too soon for Saint Roi. He is so inexperienced. It's a big jump up. It could mess him up for the rest of the season. Just my thoughts anyway. If he ran there and win then great but I'd have my doubts he could do it so soon against hardened campaigners.

[Kevloaf]

I'd just be a little worried it'll be a race too soon for Saint Roi. He is so inexperienced. It's a big jump up. It could mess him up for the rest of the season. Just my thoughts anyway. If he ran there and win then great but I'd have my doubts he could do it so soon against hardened campaigners.

Yeah, don't disagree. It's not certain he'll go there. Mullins does seem to like the race though and doesn't mind a few bullets.


As you know, I like him a lot...and having had one of my CH bubbles burst, I'd like the other dart to last a bit longer

Not given up on Aba though - thought Spectre's post was on the money.

[Lobos]

Yeah, don't disagree. It's not certain he'll go there. Mullins does seem to like the race though and doesn't mind a few bullets.


As you know, I like him a lot...and having had one of my CH bubbles burst, I'd like the other dart to last a bit longer

Not given up on Aba though - thought Spectre's post was on the money.

Yeah, I do like Saint Roi a lot. If there is a gelding that could improve enough to at least give Epatante a scare he would be it. As for Aba I'm not convinced. Every horse should be given another chance but even a 75% fit genuine Churdle horse should be winning that race. If I was a backer I would be very disappointed with his run.