Champion Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Not a bold statement though is it? She's the defending champion after all. How many defending champions have been 9/2 in October . Those stats would be more pertinent to my assumption that she is good value.

There would be quite a lot surely?

Faugheen?
Hurricane Fly?
Buveur D'air?


I'd be confident that the majority of winners were a similar price? Certainly 8/1 or lower.

The fact she was 9/2 and others may have been 8/1means it isn't value though too doesn't it?



Again, you are missing the point that taking ante post 7/2 shots in October won't be a long term profitable strategy.

[charlie]

Not a bold statement though is it? She's the defending champion after all. How many defending champions have been 9/2 in October . Those stats would be more pertinent to my assumption that she is good value.

To reiterate Kev's point, I don't think you understand value in the same way the majority of others do. Each to their own. I don't think Epatante is a terrible bet by any stretch, but yeh, I think saying things like 'she was an outstanding winner last season' is bold and OTT, but that's just my opinion. IMO she won a weak renewal that made her look outstanding, and loads can happen between now and march. Setting aside the perils of injury, then other challengers, plenty won't bother at 7/2.

[archie]

Anyone wanting to have Epatante on side should have been following my free bet ew trebles.

I wouldn't dream of backing her at 7/2 with real money but that's sort of the point of free bets.

[Lobos]

To reiterate Kev's point, I don't think you understand value in the same way the majority of others do. Each to their own. I don't think Epatante is a terrible bet by any stretch, but yeh, I think saying things like 'she was an outstanding winner last season' is bold and OTT, but that's just my opinion. IMO she won a weak renewal that made her look outstanding, and loads can happen between now and march. Setting aside the perils of injury, then other challengers, plenty won't bother at 7/2.

I do understand value without a shadow of a doubt. She was an outstanding winner last season without a shadow of a doubt and this year's renewal will not be any stronger without a shadow of a doubt. Without a doubt loads, and I mean loads, have taken the 9/2 and will take the 7/2. You are missing out.

[Saxon Warrior]

They are only value if they win.

Trying to find the winner is always the primary point of antepost.

Epatante is the likeliest winner because this season has barely started.

If the Champion Hurdle was today then 7/2 would look fair.

[Quevega]

They are only value if they win.

Trying to find the winner is always the primary point of antepost.

Epatante is the likeliest winner because this season has barely started.

If the Champion Hurdle was today then 7/2 would look fair.

If the Champion hurdle was today.
I'd go fucking mental at 7/2

fair ???

[Saxon Warrior]

If the Champion hurdle was today.
I'd go fucking mental at 7/2

fair ???

Yep, Fair.

[Lobos]

Thank you. Let's move on.

[Quevega]

Yep, Fair.

She would be odds on - one million percent

[Kevloaf]

They are only value if they win.

Trying to find the winner is always the primary point of antepost.

Epatante is the likeliest winner because this season has barely started.

If the Champion Hurdle was today then 7/2 would look fair.

That is such an odd thing to hear from you!

They aren't only value if they win.


If you had 10000/1 on Annie Power for the Mares Hurdle, would she had been bad value?





The fact she could get injured is why you factor that in to the price. You have to get there, saying she's 7/2 and going to be shorter on the day is right, because she would actually be there on the day! Hence less risk.



Look at Buveur D'air, getting a freak splint in his hoof during a race? There are so many things that could go wrong. What about the classic 'stepping on a stone', or Altior's puss hoof, or CPS this season?


That is exactly why you don't back horses single figures ante post as a general rule.

You don't win enough from when it goes right compared to when it doesn't.





To say 7/2 is value now because she'd be shorter on the day is a naive way to look at it.

OBVIOUSLY people would back her at 7/2 on the day, but do you people not record non-runners as losers? Lobos doesn't record anything but I'm shocked at your first sentence there SW, shocked to my very core

[Quevega]

I let that one ride.

[Kevloaf]

I let that one ride.

I can't. I love SW, one of the best posters we have.... it's just that sentence is the literal opposite of how I understand value

I'm not having a pop, I'm just amazed

[SharpHat]

I can't. I love SW, one of the best posters we have.... it's just that sentence is the literal opposite of how I understand value

I'm not having a pop, I'm just amazed

I'm completely with SW. You have to understand that there are many ways to play this game. I personally play the same way, i do not back horses I dont believe can win, I build a book based on who I see as the likeliest winners of each race, it works for me. Its not that price is irrelevant obviously, but its not the priority.

However I understand there is another methodology people use, where if you could get 25s on a horse you see as a 16-1 shot, you would take that because its value to you. Whether or not you could actually see that horse winning becomes less important because its essentially about the maths at that point.

[Kevloaf]

I'm completely with SW. You have to understand that there are many ways to play this game. I personally play the same way, i do not back horses I dont believe can win, I build a book based on who I see as the likeliest winners of each race, it works for me. Its not that price is irrelevant obviously, but its not the priority.

However I understand there is another methodology people use, where if you could get 25s on a horse you see as a 16-1 shot, you would take that because its value to you. Whether or not you could actually see that horse winning becomes less important because its essentially about the maths at that point.

Ah okay, yes I see the point.

Well explained.




I was taking it far too literally.

[charlie]

To say 7/2 is value now because she'd be shorter on the day is a naive way to look at it.

Thank you, exactly