Champion Hurdle 2021

[Lobos]

Honest answer, I don't know, but I can't justify 7/2 in October. Avoiding prices like that now will pay off long term so I can make my peace with not touching it, although I appreciate her price will probably only head one way.

That being said, she might not win the Fighting Fifth. BVD lost at 2/13, so stranger things have happened. Playing devils advocate, Epatante won a fairly plain looking champion hurdle. I know she won with plenty in hand and looks very very good, but how hard was it to look very very good beating that lot? I suspect next year will be far more competitive, so happy to sit tight for now.

After Aba yesterday , imo next year is not looking any harder. We currently have a festival handicap winner as 6/1 second fav. That says it all. Some people are even hanging their hat's on injured horses returning at their best in the hope that she can be turned over. Or even a 4yo beast who has failed to win on the flat in lowly handicaps. The winner has been staring all of us in the face since she picked up the trophy in March. 9/2 has become 7/2. 7/2 will become 5/2. 5/2 will become Evens. Time and value AP prices wait for no man.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I don't think I'll back Epatante at all as it's unlikely she's going to be a value price to me. If she does an Abacadabras and the bookies over react, then I would probably take the bait.

[charlie]

After Aba yesterday , imo next year is not looking any harder. We currently have a festival handicap winner as 6/1 second fav. That says it all. Some people are even hanging their hat's on injured horses returning at their best in the hope that she can be turned over. Or even a 4yo beast who has failed to win on the flat in lowly handicaps. The winner has been staring all of us in the face since she picked up the trophy in March. 9/2 has become 7/2. 7/2 will become 5/2. 5/2 will become Evens. Time and value AP prices wait for no man.

Jesus Lobos, it's October!

Where was Epatante this time last year? She was in her box having finished 9th in the Mares Novice, and was on nobody's mind for this.

Where was Espoir D'Allen this time 2 years ago? He was in his box, hadn't run, and wasn't really on anyones radar for the Champion Hurdle.

Where was Buveur d'Air this time 4 years ago? He was in his box, hadn't run and was facing a future over fences! Not even quoted in the market - won the Champion Hurdle.

But you've decided, in October, that because the 2nd fav in the market disappointed, that the Champion Hurdle is now Epatante's to lose and she is a near on certainty (which at 7/2 or 5/2 in October is surely how you'd have to view her).

She's a worthy market fav but you are rushing to make sweeping conclusions months out when there's so much that can happen, and hopefully as proven above, so much that we don't know yet!

[Lobos]

I don't think I'll back Epatante at all as it's unlikely she's going to be a value price to me. If she does an Abacadabras and the bookies over react, then I would probably take the bait.

At 7/2 she is still great value. Same Al Boum Photo. Both those should surely have been in everyone's books months ago. Reigning champions from other years would never have been those prices (9/2, 6/1). If Epatante wins her 2 preps and Al Boum his 1, then they will be 7/4 and 9/4 at best.

[Lobos]

Jesus Lobos, it's October!

Where was Epatante this time last year? She was in her box having finished 9th in the Mares Novice, and was on nobody's mind for this.

Where was Espoir D'Allen this time 2 years ago? He was in his box, hadn't run, and wasn't really on anyones radar for the Champion Hurdle.

Where was Buveur d'Air this time 4 years ago? He was in his box, hadn't run and was facing a future over fences! Not even quoted in the market - won the Champion Hurdle.

But you've decided, in October, that because the 2nd fav in the market disappointed, that the Champion Hurdle is now Epatante's to lose and she is a near on certainty (which at 7/2 or 5/2 in October is surely how you'd have to view her).

She's a worthy market fav but you are rushing to make sweeping conclusions months out when there's so much that can happen, and hopefully as proven above, so much that we don't know yet!

But you are absolutely clutching at straws if you are waiting for something to come out of their box. It's November Sunday. There is just 19 weeks to the Fez. Champion Hurdle horses will probably have 2 runs max possibly 3 before the Fez. She was an outstanding winner last season for all to see. Is there a gelding out there that can give her 7lbs and a beating, can't see it. Is there a mare out there that can beat her at levels, I doubt it. The value is there in big bold writing.

[charlie]

But you are absolutely clutching at straws if you are waiting for something to come out of their box. It's November Sunday. There is just 19 weeks to the Fez. Champion Hurdle horses will probably have 2 runs max possibly 3 before the Fez. She was an outstanding winner last season for all to see. Is there a gelding out there that can give her 7lbs and a beating, can't see it. Is there a mare out there that can beat her at levels, I doubt it. The value is there in big bold writing.

How is presenting you with fact clutching at straws? (I think that's technically impossible).

When have the last decade of Champion Hurdle winners started their campaign?

Epatante - 30th Nov
Espoir D'Allen - 10th Nov
Buveur D'Air - 17th Dec
Buveur D'Air - 2nd Dec
Annie Power - 17th Feb
Faugheen - 22nd Nov
Hurricane Fly - 18th Nov
Rock On Ruby - 26th Nov
Hurricane Fly - 15th Dec

[Faugheen_Machine]

At 7/2 she is still great value. Same Al Boum Photo. Both those should surely have been in everyone's books months ago. Reigning champions from other years would never have been those prices (9/2, 6/1). If Epatante wins her 2 preps and Al Boum his 1, then they will be 7/4 and 9/4 at best.

I don't think Epatante is the world beater that many do and she won one of the worst Champion Hurdles I can remember. 7/2 isn't for me.

[Kevloaf]

At 7/2 she is still great value. Same Al Boum Photo. Both those should surely have been in everyone's books months ago. Reigning champions from other years would never have been those prices (9/2, 6/1). If Epatante wins her 2 preps and Al Boum his 1, then they will be 7/4 and 9/4 at best.

I personally don't think you understand value in the same way the majority of others do.

One of the WH specials that may interest you btw is Al Boum Photo 8/1 to win at Tramore and the GC - saw it this morning and thought of you straight away

[Lobos]

I personally don't think you understand value in the same way the majority of others do.

One of the WH specials that may interest you btw is Al Boum Photo 8/1 to win at Tramore and the GC - saw it this morning and thought of you straight away

Can't possibly do any more on Boum. I've seen that special elsewhere I'm sure at 12/1

[Lobos]

How is presenting you with fact clutching at straws? (I think that's technically impossible).

When have the last decade of Champion Hurdle winners started their campaign?

Epatante - 30th Nov
Espoir D'Allen - 10th Nov
Buveur D'Air - 17th Dec
Buveur D'Air - 2nd Dec
Annie Power - 17th Feb
Faugheen - 22nd Nov
Hurricane Fly - 18th Nov
Rock On Ruby - 26th Nov
Hurricane Fly - 15th Dec

Right, you've got until the 17th of December to find that straw ! Please let me know his/her name and I'll Deffo have a nice saver on it ! Joking aside, good luck.

[Quevega]

I think in Lobos's defence.
The price of Epatante has a strong chance to be very short come the day.
It's similar to the Shishkin & Envoi Allen situation.
Only in this case it's probably more likely - IMO. - As there are more knowns.

She has no UK rivals and as Sharjah may well take one of the Irish trials and Honeysuckle the other.
The Irish threat may well not be the strong (market wise)

Obviously as Charlie has rightly pointed out, there's all sorts of shit that can happen.
But there is a real chance she wins her two prep races easily.
Much like Buveur Dair (who went off 4/6) for his second win.

If we don't see her until December, there is every chance she is even shorter by then.
9-2 was undoubtedly value. IMO
Now she's shortened it's getting difficult to justify a bet.

Saint Roi & Saldier are the main hopes (at this time) of her price staying ok, if they emerge as serious threats.

[Lobos]

I think in Lobos's defence.
The price of Epatante has a strong chance to be very short come the day.
It's similar to the Shishkin & Envoi Allen situation.
Only in this case it's probably more likely - IMO. - As there are more knowns.

She has no UK rivals and as Sharjah may well take one of the Irish trials and Honeysuckle the other.
The Irish threat may well not be the strong (market wise)

Obviously as Charlie has rightly pointed out, there's all sorts of shit that can happen.
But there is a real chance she wins her two prep races easily.
Much like Buveur Dair (who went off 4/6) for his second win.

If we don't see her until December, there is every chance she is even shorter by then.
9-2 was undoubtedly value. IMO
Now she's shortened it's getting difficult to justify a bet.

Saint Roi & Saldier are the main hopes (at this time) of her price staying ok, if they emerge as serious threats.

That's exactly what I said isn't it?............maybe not. Saldier and Saint Roi main hopes just tells the story.

[charlie]

Right, you've got until the 17th of December to find that straw ! Please let me know his/her name and I'll Deffo have a nice saver on it ! Joking aside, good luck.

You are missing both points.

My original point was solely geared towards emphasising that nobody could have predicted Epatante/Espoir D'Allen/Buveur d'Air at this time in previous years.

My follow up point was to re-emphasise how ridiculous it is to emphatically state you've found the Champion Hurdle winner in October, when in the last decade all typically come out later.

I know bold opinion is your style Lobos and I love the passion, but there's a fine line between being part of a sensible conversation with bold opinions, and just casting opposing opinions (and in this case actual facts) aside.

People on here know the time of day so bold sweeping statements will always be challenged at the best of times, let alone in October about a 7/2 shot!!

[Lobos]

You are missing both points.

My original point was solely geared towards emphasising that nobody could have predicted Epatante/Espoir D'Allen/Buveur d'Air at this time in previous years.

My follow up point was to re-emphasise how ridiculous it is to emphatically state you've found the Champion Hurdle winner in October, when in the last decade all typically come out later.

I know bold opinion is your style Lobos and I love the passion, but there's a fine line between being part of a sensible conversation with bold opinions, and just casting opposing opinions (and in this case actual facts) aside.

People on here know the time of day so bold sweeping statements will always be challenged at the best of times, let alone in October about a 7/2 shot!!

Not a bold statement though is it? She's the defending champion after all. How many defending champions have been 9/2 in October . Those stats would be more pertinent to my assumption that she is good value.

[Kevloaf]

Can't possibly do any more on Boum. I've seen that special elsewhere I'm sure at 12/1

Have you?

Where? - I would defintiely take that as I don't think he'll be evens at Tramore.