Champion Hurdle 2021

[opatcho]

Not sure how long Davy and Kennedy are out for and if they'd be back for Abacadabras, but I'll be seeing that as a opportunity to get him beat if it's a competitive grade 1

Just a thought....

[Kevloaf]

Just been watching Abacadabras runs from last year and his bumper run at the Fez, and it wouldnt suprise me if they stuck a hood, blinker or a nose band on this horse at some point

This horse is so free, always looking around.... a few occasions where he's looking towards to side of the hurdles like he'd rather take the side exit than go over a hurdle. He isnt straight at all
Stick him out in front too early and he wonders, too late and he'd rather run a long the horse than get passed it

Clearly a very very good horse, never really notice this before today. In an ideal world, he gets beat over 2 miles because of this to help inject some value back in his price, and then on the day see some sort of head gear on him to improve his chances

Thought this was interesting and something to see whether this habit continues. The horse feels like a big friend giant, rather finish second instead of having that killer instance and wanting.... needing to finish first (if that makes sense)

Haha, love the confidence in hoping a horse gets beat along the way to get a bit of added value


There is a chance, if Saint Roi and Abacadabras do clash in the WKD hurdle, perharps the bookies will hugely overreact... especially if Saint Roi wins it.



A lot of water to go under the bridge though... but that doesn't seem massively far fetched.




The headhear may help Abacadabras, but not ideal for a Grade 1 horse to need any headgear... I hope they don't try it and the horse just matures.

[opatcho]

Haha, love the confidence in hoping a horse gets beat along the way to get a bit of added value

Yeah, extremely wishful

I would hope he matures out of it, but he was doing his in bumpers and continue to do this all the way up to and including the Champion Hurdle

I think he is a grade 1 horse, with a minor niggle. Didnt Big Bucks have 50 kilos of wool on his nose? lol I dont mind a minor aid like that if that keep him straight

[Lobos]

Gone in again on Honey @ 16's for the Champion Hurdle. Still can't believe that price ! What price would she be if confirmed for the race now ? 6's ?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Gone in again on Honey @ 16's for the Champion Hurdle. Still can't believe that price ! What price would she be if confirmed for the race now ? 6's ?

Surely you can’t look at it that way though as that price difference is directly related to her likelihood of rocking up here

[Kevloaf]

Gone in again on Honey @ 16's for the Champion Hurdle. Still can't believe that price ! What price would she be if confirmed for the race now ? 6's ?

I think she'd be beaten at 2 miles by loads of horses.


This notion that she's a great 2 miler, or that they can train her to be better is just pie in the sky stuff.

Essentially, she JUST held on from Darver Star.


She was 1 length better than Petit Mouchoir in that Irish Champion Hurdle.

For me, that gives me this list of horses that I would not EXPECT her to beat at 2 miles:


Epatante,
Abacadabras,
Sharjah,
Saldier,
Klassical Dream,
Abacadabras,
Envoi Allen,
Cilaos Emery
Buveur D'air

I'm not even certain I'd fancy her to beat Darver Star if they met again, or Goshen



16/1 isn't value UNLESS she starts asserting her authority at 2 miles...

I don't see it. She might be able to beat some of them, but the notion she's miles clear is miles off. None of her form entitles her to be winning a Champion Hurdle does it.




I'd back her 16/1 NRNB, as the only way I think she'd run is if she improves another 7lbs at 2m.... her trip looks to be over further... I don't see the appeal at all.

[Lobos]

Surely you can’t look at it that way though as that price difference is directly related to her likelihood of rocking up here

For me it's odds on she runs in the Champion Hurdle this time. Was trained for the Mares Hurdle all last season but they were nearly swayed to go for it after winning the Irish version but resisted. This year I have no doubt the 2 mile crown is her initial target at season start. That makes a whole lot of difference in the way she'll be trained and ridden in her races. Henry has said a decision will be made after the Irish Champion Hurdle whether she will go for the English crown or go to the Mares again. For him to be saying that now , before she has stepped out of her stable, speaks volumes for me. I wouldn't be at all surprised if connections came out long before the Irish version and declared that the English Champion Hurdle was her main target.

[jono]

For me it's odds on she runs in the Champion Hurdle this time.

Bold call. I’d be of the opposite view and see the mates as heavily odds on.
Worth remembering that there are very few races she can really run in, particularly the other side of Christmas. Outside of the Hattons Grace you are really forced to go either up or down in trip unless you are happy with a long break before the festival. The fact she is once again going to be going for the 2m event at the DRF is for me not an indication of her festival target, just a suitable prep run for the mares

[Lobos]

I think she'd be beaten at 2 miles by loads of horses.


This notion that she's a great 2 miler, or that they can train her to be better is just pie in the sky stuff.

Essentially, she JUST held on from Darver Star.


She was 1 length better than Petit Mouchoir in that Irish Champion Hurdle.

For me, that gives me this list of horses that I would not EXPECT her to beat at 2 miles:


Epatante,
Abacadabras,
Sharjah,
Saldier,
Klassical Dream,
Abacadabras,
Envoi Allen,
Cilaos Emery
Buveur D'air

I'm not even certain I'd fancy her to beat Darver Star if they met again, or Goshen



16/1 isn't value UNLESS she starts asserting her authority at 2 miles...

I don't see it. She might be able to beat some of them, but the notion she's miles clear is miles off. None of her form entitles her to be winning a Champion Hurdle does it.




I'd back her 16/1 NRNB, as the only way I think she'd run is if she improves another 7lbs at 2m.... her trip looks to be over further... I don't see the appeal at all.

I know where you are coming from but she was trained to win a Mares Hurdle all last season not a Champion Hurdle. It makes a huge difference. The Irish Champion Hurdle was a complete afterthought, she was almost bullied into going for it. She jumped poorly in the race but still won. The Mares Hurdle was a tactical race, almost run like a 2 mile race, it turned into a bit of a sprint but she showed a real turn of foot to quicken up round the bend into the straight which won the race for her. That proved to me she has what it takes to mix with the best over 2 miles. She is still only 6 and has had just 8 races, won them all and has won both her races over the minimum distance. IMO there is still a huge amount of improvement to come and who knows what heights she can reach. We should also not forget she to will get the half a stone Mares allowance and I don't see any Irish horse being able to beat her over any distance. Epatante will be a very hard horse to beat at levels but if anyone is going to do it then Honey will be the one. It's strange but last season I was against everyone on here saying she was Champion Hurdle bound and said she would win the Mares Hurdle. This year, roles are reversed. I could be wrong....but I doubt it.

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure I buy the difference in training methods to win an ICH and Mares Hurdle, to winning an ICH and CH.

What do you think they'll be doing differently?




People didn't assume she was going CH last year, she was 40/1 so people took the chance. This year she's 16/1, it's not hard to see why that is not a great bet relative to last year.




I don't disagree that she can 'mix with the best', as she's clearly a grade 1 horse. You seem to have blinkers on though in that last year you were against the grain...you weren't, she was always more likely to go for the Mares Hurdle. She was ALWAYS shorter for that. This year you're against the grain...



How much have you got on her for the Champion Hurdle?
How much have you got on her for the Mares Hurdle?
How much have you got on her for Any Race?

[Lobos]

They may not have to train her differently, they probably already have the confidence that she can mix it with/beat the best over 2. They could work her with pacier types which will sharpen her up even more. I also think they may well ride her more for speed now in her races as opposed to using her stamina.

After the Irish Champion Hurdle everyone was convinced she'd go or should go/take her chance in the English version. I was not and stated all along that she'd go Mares.

In total I have 7pts on her , 3 for the Churdle and 4 split between Any Race and 3 doubles with Envoi, Eptante and PTKO.

No doubt I'll keep chipping away at that 16's now.

[BookieBasher]

Honeysuckle rocking up here would kill loads of my antepost doubles and trebles.

[Lobos]

Honeysuckle rocking up here would kill loads of my antepost doubles and trebles.

Then perhaps you should cover her for the Champion Hurdle ? Just a thought.

[BookieBasher]

Then perhaps you should cover her for the Champion Hurdle ? Just a thought.

Maybe I will, but just can’t see her running here. Same reason I haven’t covered EA in the RSA. Unless she wins the Irish CH doing handstands I’m sticking with my gut that the mares will be her race. If I back her for the CH it would have to be each way as I could only see her placing at best against what could be some top notch 2 milers if they all turn up

[Lobos]

Maybe I will, but just can’t see her running here. Same reason I haven’t covered EA in the RSA. Unless she wins the Irish CH doing handstands I’m sticking with my gut that the mares will be her race. If I back her for the CH it would have to be each way as I could only see her placing at best against what could be some top notch 2 milers if they all turn up

Fair play. In that case don't back her. Always go with your gut