Champion Hurdle 2021

[charlie]

Me too. Honeysuckle aside he was my biggest 'winner' last season before pulling out. Whether he'd have beaten Epatante though is another thing

Really hard one to weigh up. I think Saldier would have run Epatante closer than Sharjah. For all Epatante won well, it was a weak renewal IMO. Plenty of horses capable of giving Sharjah a 3 length beating, including Saldier who beat him 8 lengths in the Morgiana. Espoir D'Allen in 2019 was IMO far more impressive than Epatante, both visually and on the clock, and Saldier would have arguably beaten him at Naas were it not for the fall. As Istabraq eluded to, a lot of it comes down to fitness/wellbeing. As far as we know Epatante is the returning champ, fit, well and on track to try and repeat her 2020 success. For all I know Saldier has been retired and we'll never see him again! Be interesting to see what's said in the coming weeks. If Willie declares his health and wellbeing a positive and the target is declared here then 25/1 will be gone.

[Arkle]

Think although a bad renewal epatante won with loads in hand glided through the race it was so easy! Goshen I just can’t have will be interesting if Moore decides to go for the fighting fifth or Christmas hurdle

[charlie]

Think although a bad renewal epatante won with loads in hand glided through the race it was so easy! Goshen I just can’t have will be interesting if Moore decides to go for the fighting fifth or Christmas hurdle

Yeh definitely fair to say she won with a fair bit in hand.

[charlie]

Think although a bad renewal epatante won with loads in hand glided through the race it was so easy! Goshen I just can’t have will be interesting if Moore decides to go for the fighting fifth or Christmas hurdle

Me too, but it's purely price based. If Goshen were a decent double figure price over the summer then I would have considered backing him, but at 5/1 there's no chance. Every year these seemingly monstrous juveniles step into open company and go from hero to zero, fast. I know the Triumph/Champion route is a path well trod with 3 winners, but I'm put off by Goshen as he has to make the step up and overcome the added quirks we all know he has. Both these things considered make 5/1 too short in my book - I'd sooner back Epatante at 4/1 if I had to have a bet at those sorts of prices.

[opatcho]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2020...ydock-comeback

Moore's excuses for Goshen's run, includes everything except the "little toe" "grey silks" & "the stable staff forgot to get him a birthday cake".

Should have left it at he wasn't fit/good enough on the day.

Terrible preparation for the Champion Hurdle, end of September and they already have him out - do backers really think Moore can keep this horse going until March

I just don't trust the Moore's to bring Goshen through

I would have preferred to have kept Goshen at home, allow him to fill out a bit more, bring him out for 2 late races ahead of the festival, hoped for soft/heavy in the champ hurdle, and then use his freshness to try and outstay the field. He may have had half a chance.

That flat race put him into the "Pentland Hill / Peace and Co" category for me - found out as soon they go into open company
Should be 20/1, similar to Saint Roi

Anyway, just noticed I've been too negative recently - too busy bashing Goshen, so will give my views to likely winner for this, keep it simple - Epantate

- Scope for improvement
- Won easily
- Expect to improve on better ground (Barry G comments)
- Trainer knows how to win this race
- Owner does very well in this race
- Yes, last years CH wasn't great but either will next years. Apart from Aba, who else is going to improve this race?

Only negative
- Jockey booking. Would love to see Nico on her but.... blar blar

Abacadabras, decent horse but rather side with Epatante . Goshen, no thanks. A few after this in the market won't run in the CH. Then you hit the likes of Saint Roi. None of the other established mares will come here. The rest don't interest me at this moment

Only AP bet I've had so far is Saint Roi, was fairly happy with this but it appears every person with a betting account has backed this horse, and we ALL can't be right (????). My finger will be hoovering over the cash out option on this one

Yet to look at the bottom of the market for a surprise. One to pick up next month before things kick off.
Think I want to find a mare from last year novices, the mares dominated last year and it could be a trend to side with this coming season.... particularly a Irish Mare!

[opatcho]

If I had to place a AP bet in this race, it will go straight on Epatante and I'd be happy with that.

I really think this will end up being a reboot of the 2018 champion hurdle - with Epantate playing the Buever D'Air - the horse no one really give any credit for ("beat a bad bunch"), finishing ahead of Melon - the support act who always seems to come second best. Melon will be played by Abacadabras

[Craigy14]

I like the look of Saldier @ 25/1. Who knows what Willie has up his sleeve (or yet to be purchased), but I think there's every chance this lad ends up his number one. I don't know too much about the injury but I remember Willie hopeful he'd make Punchestown so hopefully its nothing too serious. He was joint fav before the injury and the form works out pretty well. Convinced he would have beaten 2019 winner Espoir D'Allen were it not for falling at the last at Naas, and comfortably accounted for this year's Champion Hurdle 2nd in the Morgiana on his seasonal debut after a year off. Smacks of a talented horse that's been unlucky at the wrong times in his short career. If he wins the Morgiana first time up as he did last year he'll probably be a single figure price, whether that's justified or not.

Think most will agree with this one Charlie

I hadn’t backed him because he missed last year but given I cashed Aramon after a setback thought I would grab the 25/1 before it potentially shortens on some news of his well being.

Imo he will be willies number 1 dart at the champion, his form stacks up all over. Just need to keep him fit which is obviously an issue! But happy to take a stab with a point.

[Istabraq]

Terrible preparation for the Champion Hurdle, end of September and they already have him out - do backers really think Moore can keep this horse going!

I think he just got greedy, flat mark he clearly believed was a good one and looking to take advantage of some half valuable flat prizes, I still think that performance wasn’t an accident, they’re a punting outfit and 2/5 shots or whatever price he was can’t really be backed, in fact I wouldn’t be shocked if they laid the horse.

My guess is he’ll target a big flat pot in the next few weeks then have an easy time of it until he starts back jumping around Dec/Jan...

[archie]

Juvenile hurdlers are nearly all flat bred. Flat horses are bred to mature early although horses still mature at different times and rates. It can hardly be a surprise that so many Triumph winners (and moral winners!) are among the more mature at the time of the race. The extension of this is that they have less improvement in them.

There is every chance that Goshen improved/matured massively last season and will actually have very little improvement left in him. There is also a chance that he is one of the very few who do keep on improving (eg Defi Du Seuil) but that chance is not represented by a price of 5/1.

[charlie]

Juvenile hurdlers are nearly all flat bred. Flat horses are bred to mature early although horses still mature at different times and rates. It can hardly be a surprise that so many Triumph winners (and moral winners!) are among the more mature at the time of the race. The extension of this is that they have less improvement in them.

There is every chance that Goshen improved/matured massively last season and will actually have very little improvement left in him. There is also a chance that he is one of the very few who do keep on improving (eg Defi Du Seuil) but that chance is not represented by a price of 5/1.

Perfectly summed up.

[ComplyOrDie]

Juvenile hurdlers are nearly all flat bred. Flat horses are bred to mature early although horses still mature at different times and rates. It can hardly be a surprise that so many Triumph winners (and moral winners!) are among the more mature at the time of the race. The extension of this is that they have less improvement in them.

There is every chance that Goshen improved/matured massively last season and will actually have very little improvement left in him. There is also a chance that he is one of the very few who do keep on improving (eg Defi Du Seuil) but that chance is not represented by a price of 5/1.

As Charlie has said, this is bang on. And the one big reason why I think it will be difficult for Goshen. Not because of his trainer.

[Eggs]

....speaking on ATR yesterday, Hayley Moore said something along the lines of: ‘there are horses who are good on the flat but not good over hurdles and there are horses who are good over hurdles but not on the flat. Goshen is one of the latter. We are not worried, we are happy with him.’

[Quevega]

....speaking on ATR yesterday, Hayley Moore said something along the lines of: ‘there are horses who are good on the flat but not good over hurdles and there are horses who are good over hurdles but not on the flat. Goshen is one of the latter. We are not worried, we are happy with him.’

I see Hayley as more of an action woman than a philosopher.
Prophetic words though

[Kevloaf]

....speaking on ATR yesterday, Hayley Moore said something along the lines of: ‘there are horses who are good on the flat but not good over hurdles and there are horses who are good over hurdles but not on the flat. Goshen is one of the latter. We are not worried, we are happy with him.’

His rating on the flat told them he was not very good on the flat, isn't that exactly they ran him on the flat? To win a handicap?


Before that race they thought Goshen was in category C that she has omitted - some horses are good on the flat and good over hurdles.

There is also option D, some horses are not good over the flat or over hurdles...but not true in this case





There are no positives to take from Goshen's flat run, barring the obvious 'he's alive'.

[Saxon Warrior]

its usually the ones with a low ceiling rating on the flat, that go over hurdles.

Certainly only a small pool rated 100+ on the flat will be hurdling.