Champion Hurdle 2021

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

This is probably the race I have taken the strongest position over the summer including a lot of free bets:

Epatante win 9/2-4/1
Abracadabras win 10/1-7.5/1
Saint Roi E/W 25/1-20/1

Obviously a fair old way to go and far too soon to be writing Goshen off and one or two might come out of the woodwork, but I’m hoping I don’t need to add anymore. I’d be tempted by Saldier if it wasn’t for his injury record.

[Lobos]

This is probably the race I have taken the strongest position over the summer including a lot of free bets:

Epatante win 9/2-4/1
Abracadabras win 10/1-7.5/1
Saint Roi E/W 25/1-20/1

Obviously a fair old way to go and far too soon to be writing Goshen off and one or two might come out of the woodwork, but I’m hoping I don’t need to add anymore. I’d be tempted by Saldier if it wasn’t for his injury record.

With you on Eptante and Saint Roi. Also done Concertista 33's Allart 50's and Honeysuckle 16/1. Bit of a girl theme going on.

[jono]

Genuine question.... Which grade 1 horse has Gary Moore ruined in the past with an awful campaign?

The horse might not be good enough but I don't see the trainer as being the problem.

I'm against Goshen but I'm not against him because of Gary Moore training him. Clearly if you (I) had the choice you'd choose Mullins, Henderson etc and i'd say having them as a trainer is an advantage, it's not a hindrance that Moore trains him and that wouldn't stop me having a bet. Nor would the flat campaign if I fancied him for this race, though personal preference would have been to put him away for the summer. Moore was able to win a Champion Chase by running a horse 3 times in April. So there's no concerns there. Pretty sure he handled Ar Mad well in his novice chase career until his injury?

The fact he's a 4yo going into open company, from a juvenile division I don't rate puts me off.

[Kevloaf]

Genuine question.... Which grade 1 horse has Gary Moore ruined in the past with an awful campaign?

The horse might not be good enough but I don't see the trainer as being the problem.

Exactly this!

Also agree on your further comment about this today having no bearing on his Champion Hurdle tilt

Do you two get those rose-tinted glasses from the Moore's website directly or can you get them from Amazon?




The trainer is the problem as he's fucking around a potential Champion Hurdler on the flat, at Haydock, in September.

Rendering the performance having "zero impact" or "no bearing" isn't accurate unless you'd have seen him bolt up here, then in a big flat race and then still consider that of no relevance to a CH campaign... I suppose we'll never know.






I'm embarassed to have backed Goshen ante post. Move on, he's clearly not the superstar we hoped he was. He won't win a grade 1 over jumps this season, nevermind a Champion Hurdle.

[jono]

My View on the Champion Hurdle, at this stage:

Abacadabras would be my main fancy in the race at this moment. Got as close to Envoi Allen as any horse last year. His form stacks up everywhere you look. He strikes me as a horse that the better the race, the better you'll see of him. A Champion Hurdle should be ideal for him. I think he'll be the horse that forces Honeysuckle into the Mares come the Irish Champion Hurdle in February. For all the talk of soft ground blunting his chances in the Supreme, he ran as good as ever so ground should not be a concern whichever way it goes. I personally think if Shishkin and Abacadabras were to have had a rematch, the roles would have been reversed.

Saint Roi...
Mullins has shown he can take a County runner and make them a CH horse before. In 2014 Arctic Fire (somehow) didn't win the County but came 2nd off a mark of 141 (after 4 hurdle runs). The following season he rose to an incredible 169 and a 2nd place finish in the Champion Hurdle. A year later Wicklow Brave won the County off 138 (after 9 hurdle runs). Just 8 months later he was rated 166 and although he finished down the field in 2 CH's, he turned up at the highest level countless times winning across all codes.

With just 2 hurdle runs prior to his County win, the way he won the race. I'd be very confident he'll take a huge leap forward once again next season. I don't think 151 is close to his potential. Which would worry me slightly that JP might be tempted to take advantage in a handicap once again. We saw with Sire du Berlais (albeit with Elliott) that they are ok with going back to the same handicap on a higher mark if they feel the horse is still 'well in'. He also proved he can go to the festival with few runs under his belt if they wanted to put him away. Hopefully he's tested in the Morgiana or over Christmas though.

Epatante is a horse I want to back, and will look to do so. The 9/2 is tempting... When you look at her competition in the Fighting Fifth and Kempton - who's going to challenge her? Like I said I do think Abacadabras can surpass her come March. Saint Roi can also challenge. Saldier if staying sound. Honeysuckle if she were to come here. Sharjah for me had no excuses last year. But it's all over in Ireland...unless Goshen is as good as his price suggests. Could Buveur D'air come back? At 10 years old, following a bad injury. Not for me. I could easily see Henderson nursing him back, easing him through the season and picking up a place but couldn't see a win.

[Kevloaf]

If Abacadabras is your main fancy, do you think Envoi Allen would beat Epatante if they met this season?
Would Envoi Allen be favourite?

[TigerRolllllll]

Epatante could well improve further

Might yet be one of best CH winners for a few years

On hurdle ratings at mo, after similar number of runs to EA, she is 10 pounds in hand (incl allowance).....so should win easily

[jono]

Epatante should be favourite, for sure, at this stage.
Give it 6 or 7 months and I think EA would be favourite, and would win. FTO would be a tough ask but i'd still side with him, just about.

Epatante over 2 miles and Benie over 3 miles would probably be the 2 toughest horses for EA to face straight up out of his novice season, other than the i'd fancy him to beat any horse.

[TigerRolllllll]

Horses mature.....EA is a chaser and not a speed-hurdler, so not a fair comparison

I don’t get the negativity with Epatante.....when I put her up on here last year, comments were not positive to say least....and feels like we might be overlooking obvious

An RPR of 171 (with allow) after half dozen races to win a CH is top drawer.....and on the eye, she looks perfect type

Price too short for singles yet.....but will def put in book and hope Abacadrabas improves to see great race. Not convinced re Goshen.....form does not yet justify hype

[TigerRolllllll]

Honeysuckle ratings not far behind and that would be a race over Aintree 2.5m

Ladies double to repeat last year looks solid on day one

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I said very early on in this thread that the Moore’s wanting a flat campaign for Goshen was a big negative and got shot down by some; just can’t understand it at all, I took absolutely nothing from that yesterday bar confirming Imho he won’t be winning a Champion Hurdle

[Scooby91]

My View on the Champion Hurdle, at this stage:

Abacadabras would be my main fancy in the race at this moment. Got as close to Envoi Allen as any horse last year. His form stacks up everywhere you look. He strikes me as a horse that the better the race, the better you'll see of him. A Champion Hurdle should be ideal for him. I think he'll be the horse that forces Honeysuckle into the Mares come the Irish Champion Hurdle in February. For all the talk of soft ground blunting his chances in the Supreme, he ran as good as ever so ground should not be a concern whichever way it goes. I personally think if Shishkin and Abacadabras were to have had a rematch, the roles would have been reversed.

Saint Roi...
Mullins has shown he can take a County runner and make them a CH horse before. In 2014 Arctic Fire (somehow) didn't win the County but came 2nd off a mark of 141 (after 4 hurdle runs). The following season he rose to an incredible 169 and a 2nd place finish in the Champion Hurdle. A year later Wicklow Brave won the County off 138 (after 9 hurdle runs). Just 8 months later he was rated 166 and although he finished down the field in 2 CH's, he turned up at the highest level countless times winning across all codes.

With just 2 hurdle runs prior to his County win, the way he won the race. I'd be very confident he'll take a huge leap forward once again next season. I don't think 151 is close to his potential. Which would worry me slightly that JP might be tempted to take advantage in a handicap once again. We saw with Sire du Berlais (albeit with Elliott) that they are ok with going back to the same handicap on a higher mark if they feel the horse is still 'well in'. He also proved he can go to the festival with few runs under his belt if they wanted to put him away. Hopefully he's tested in the Morgiana or over Christmas though.

Epatante is a horse I want to back, and will look to do so. The 9/2 is tempting... When you look at her competition in the Fighting Fifth and Kempton - who's going to challenge her? Like I said I do think Abacadabras can surpass her come March. Saint Roi can also challenge. Saldier if staying sound. Honeysuckle if she were to come here. Sharjah for me had no excuses last year. But it's all over in Ireland...unless Goshen is as good as his price suggests. Could Buveur D'air come back? At 10 years old, following a bad injury. Not for me. I could easily see Henderson nursing him back, easing him through the season and picking up a place but couldn't see a win.

Very well put and I'd 100% agree on the 3. The only slight thing I could add.. is i think that elixir d'ainay is on the incline and for me wasn't beaten in the supreme when he fell. I'd have thought the arkle may be calling. But if he's kept over hurdles. That would be a tip in itself.

And an unlikely runner wild card. L'autonomie would be a CH horse rather than mares imo. On the real off chance she got sent over.

[Lobos]

Very well put and I'd 100% agree on the 3. The only slight thing I could add.. is i think that elixir d'ainay is on the incline and for me wasn't beaten in the supreme when he fell. I'd have thought the arkle may be calling. But if he's kept over hurdles. That would be a tip in itself.

And an unlikely runner wild card. L'autonomie would be a CH horse rather than mares imo. On the real off chance she got sent over.

Two nice curve balls thrown in there Scooby. Gets the juices going. I do think Honeysuckle will join the party as well so the girls may well have it to themselves in March and fight out a pulsating finish.

[Hardy Eustace]

Epatante was so good in Champion hurdle and my still be improving. It will take a very good horse to stop her in March but if anyone does it’ll be aba, though saint Roi is entitled to improve too. Unless something really left field comes out from now until March, IMO it’s one of the easier open races to solve at the moment.

[Quevega]

I think the three that Jono has put up are probably the right three also.
Unless something we think is going chasing stays hurdling.

But I'd have Epatante as short as 3-1, or less. Simply because she has as much scope for improvement as the other two. Especially Abacadabra's. Maybe Saint Roi has more room to improve, but he simply has to do, as he's a handicapper.

Both will be put in my saver column.

I'm thinking of a really big bet on Epatante when NRNB comes in. And hope something in Ireland wins the main graded races and shows up as a strong challenger. to keep her price healthy. Sharjah will likely win one or two, but he's not on my radar at all.

The others I'll aim to get on side with the specials. As the prices right now are not attractive enough.
The specials to win a race and then the champion hurdle. The one at xmas and the irish champion would be fine. Although Honeysuckle could get in the way I suppose.