Originally posted by Quevega
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Champion Hurdle 2021
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Originally posted by Quevega View PostYep - I'd agree with that.
I said as much on my antepost thread review of the race.
The being left in front too soon didn't appear to help. And I'm sure Davy would have preferred a longer lead into the finish.
However, that admission is hardly a positive for the horse overall. And the rest of the race could not have gone smoother for the horse and jockey.
The carnage caused by asterion in particular, reminded me of the terminator, where the smoke and bodies are everywhere and Abacadabras emerges completely unscathed, travelling like he's certain to win.
Aba's misfortune is far less obvious for sure, and if it's a quirk (to doss in front), then it's self inflicted.
I personally don't believe he dossed that day, and battled really well to the line. Just beat by a better horse (probably worthy of more)"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Davey got to the front too soon on Abracadabras and took a pull. That pull cost him momentum and the race. So given normal progression it's hard not to have him going close in a Champion Hurdle. However, Epatante was hardly any more experienced than him, and she couldn't have won the Champion Hurdle more impressively. For me she is still the most likely winner. Worth more than her winning distance and plenty of scope for improvement. What's not to like?
I'd perhaps like Goshen more if I was on at fancy prices, but the truth is if I could only pick one horse for the race he'd be number three or four at best.
So it then leaves me with those that are likely to improve significantly or are a bit more left field. Those that I like at good odds are Saint Roi and Maries Rock. Plus if there was any inkling he doesn't go over fences Klassical Dream.
Klassical Dream I don't have onside and won't until there's some kind of news one way or the other, and I'll be chipping away at Epatante in roll-ups. Other than that hopefully I'm pretty much done with the Champion Hurdle bets for the season. Injury or genuine left field are the only reason I'll need to play again.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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GOSHEN declared for the 3.45pm at Haydock over 1M6F Handicap (bottom-weight) Class 2, rather than the 1M4F alternative.
WH first up with the prices, Goshen 8/13, in the six-horse handicap.Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 24 September 2020, 06:03 PM."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by jono View PostNothing too surprising - Abacadabras will start off in the WKD Hurdle at Down Royal (from RP today)
Samcro, Luska Lad, Arctic Fire, Apple's Jade a few of the favourites from the last 10 years beaten in the race.
Melon and Jezki the best couple to have won it. I miss Jetski.
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Just out of interest. Before he runs today.
Goshen is a general 4/1 chance or the CH. With epatante a shade shorter.
Assuming they meet in the christmas hurdle.
Id personally have thought that epatante would be quite a bit shorter than him to win that.
Would anyone have goshen fav against epatante at kempton.
And if he wins. What price will he go?
If he loses what price will he go?
Imo I cant see him getting much shorter with a victory. But I can see him being atleast 3 times the price should he get beat. And hes fav to get beat imo.
This opinion may be completely wrong, but for those that have backed him now. Im assuming IYO he's beating epatante at christmas? And goes 5/2 or so.... or maybe you even think he'll hammer her and go evens?https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
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If he did hammer her, he'd deserve to be shorter than her.
The problem is the price at the moment, and if he wins a flat race today and becomes the universal favourite, he's going to have no love on here as it's a clear 'poor value' favourite.
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So wouldnt it be a better idea to wait for the day of the christmas hurdle and do the special on goshen to win the christmas hurdle and the champion if he'll be a good price on the day? Assuming your interested in backing him at all of course
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Originally posted by riccirich View PostSo wouldnt it be a better idea to wait for the day of the christmas hurdle and do the special on goshen to win the christmas hurdle and the champion if he'll be a good price on the day? Assuming your interested in backing him at all of course
Doubt you'd get 44-1 like epatante last year, even though she went off favourite for the xmas hurdle.
I'd not expect Goshen price to drift much at all, even if he's beaten before xmas.
Last year the prices pretty much held on fusil raffles and the other wanky juvenile until the day of the champion hurdle.
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Originally posted by riccirich View PostSo wouldnt it be a better idea to wait for the day of the christmas hurdle and do the special on goshen to win the christmas hurdle and the champion if he'll be a good price on the day? Assuming your interested in backing him at all of course
Right handed will suit. If hes going to win the CH. He wants to be winning at kemptonhttps://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
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Originally posted by Scooby91 View PostVery good point. If you do want to be on him. I cant see him getting beaten there and winning the CH.
Right handed will suit. If hes going to win the CH. He wants to be winning at kempton
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