Champion Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I think many are getting carried away by what looked like was going to be an absolute procession in the Triumph. You'll do well to find a bigger fan of Goshen last season than myself, but serious doubts come into play when stepping into open company for sure.

To have done as much racing as he has via a combination of flat runs and hurdles already in his career you'd have to question whether there is much more to come, in terms of improvement, because he will have to improve to become a player in the Champion Hurdle, for sure.

As a Goshen backer, at double figures, I'd not be wanting to see him on the flat, tbh, but understand why connections would want to pick up the prize money whilst they can.

[Istabraq]

To be fair Epitante was around the same price after her Christmas hurdle win as Goshen is now and the forum wasn’t exactly salivating at that ones chance in the champion hurdle.
The good thing about Goshen (for the champion hurdle) is that strong performances are already built into his March price so there’s no need to back him now, he could win a couple of flat races and a Fighting Fifth and still be 4/1.
The fact there’s little love for him now is built entirely around his price, not his talent...

[Hardy Eustace]

Has to be his price! I know it has been said a few times before but it's shocking. In fact, it offends me. How on earth is he half a point bigger than the reigning champ. How has he any comparable form to her. Hes beating 130 horses at best. He doesn't jump that well. Dont get me wrong he could be very good and I would take a chance on him at a sensible price but not at 4/1 / 9/2. Behave yourself.

Epatane doesn't get any credit does she? Yes she won a weak champion hurdle but she couldn't have done it much easier, she jumped and travelled like a dream and even if all the horses who got injured within the division last year showed up I still think she would have beaten them. She progressed at a rate of knots and there is nothing to suggest she hasn't stopped progressing. She may not even need to progress to win this years race anyway.

Wonder why there isn't that much love her?

Yes, she is only 4/1 but when you look at the race (and the record of multiple winners) 4/1 is actually very fair. In fact, at this stage it is probably one of the better value bets of the week.

[Saxon Warrior]

When we feel that the two short priced favourites in an antepost race, are too short, it usually is a sign that there should be other alternatives out there for us to back at much bigger prices.

I would take this as a good sign, and be happy to search out alternatives, (while others load up those 2 short-priced horses in multis and keep their price short.)

The Champion Hurdle is a great market to be ready to play in.

The difficult part is finding the right one, when it emerges.

[Hardy Eustace]

I dont think Epatante is too short though - what more does she have to do?

I agree though this it is one to be ready to play in but I just cant see where that play will come from. Lets look at the market...

Epatante - worthy fav
Goshen - Insulting price
Aba - fair enough but has to improve to match epatante - not much juice in his price now at 7's in any case
EA - going chasing
Shishkin - going chasing
Honeysuckle - highly likely to run in the mares - wouldn't beat Epatante over 2 miles anyway
Saint Roi - interesting - will he go here or county?
BDD - more chance of going up in trip than down
Buvuer D'air - love the old boy but surely wont be connections first string
Sharjah - not good enough last year, why this year?
Aramon - injured
Saldier - sick note
Concertista - needs a massive step up
Chantry House - going chasing
Elix D'ainay - interesting but going chasing?
Laurina - dog shit
Easywork - going over fences
Darver star- going over fences

4/1 seems really fair.

[ComplyOrDie]

Concertista - needs a massive step up

She interests me at 33/1. Quite a bit.

With the mares allowance she is 2lbs shy of Goshens rating, and her Cheltenham form over 2m is fair, at the very least. As you've noted, she needs a massive step up, but so does Goshen, and they are almost 29pts difference in price

[Istabraq]

She interests me at 33/1. Quite a bit.

With the mares allowance she is 2lbs shy of Goshens rating, and her Cheltenham form over 2m is fair, at the very least. As you've noted, she needs a massive step up, but so does Goshen, and they are almost 29pts difference in price

I’m not saying it is definitely the case with her CoD but that Cheltenham form is on the New course so she may just be more stamina than speed...

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m not saying it is definitely the case with her CoD but that Cheltenham form is on the New course so she may just be more stamina than speed...

Well, at least her stamina can kick in when Goshen has gone way too quick in front then

[Lobos]

I'm very surprised Eptante is still 4/1. Same Al Boum at 6's. Both should be a fair bit shorter imo but I'm not complaining!

[Saxon Warrior]

If anyone thinks Epatante is a good bet at 4/1 for the race in 6 months time, they may still leave a bet until she is entered to run, if you assume she won't shorten in the meantime.

Personally those sort of prices antepost so far in advance over hurdles or fences are a turn-off.

I dont think we need to know what the good priced alternatives are, just yet. If we don't see one, we dont bet on the race, until a horse emerges at a price we want, that we think could win.

In recent Septembers or Octobers, who backed the following March winners?:

* Epatante
* Espoir D'Allen
* Buveur D'Air - first time when he went novice chasing.
* Annie Power - when she had run in the Stayers after the Mares and the owner/trainer had Faugheen

Thats 4 out of the last 5 years, where almost all of the betting done in Sept/Oct wouldnt have been a winner

Only Buveur D'Air Year 2 was visible anywhere close to the top of the market.

[The King Pimm]

If anyone thinks Epatante is a good bet at 4/1 for the race in 6 months time, they may still leave a bet until she is entered to run, if you assume she won't shorten in the meantime.

Personally those sort of prices antepost so far in advance over hurdles or fences are a turn-off.

I dont think we need to know what the good priced alternatives are, just yet. If we don't see one, we dont bet on the race, until a horse emerges at a price we want, that we think could win.

In recent Septembers or Octobers, who backed the following March winners?:

* Epatante
* Espoir D'Allen
* Buveur D'Air - first time when he went novice chasing.
* Annie Power - when she had run in the Stayers after the Mares and the owner/trainer had Faugheen

Thats 4 out of the last 5 years, where almost all of the betting done in Sept/Oct wouldnt have been a winner

Agreed. I’m only involving Fav’s for the festival this far out in small stake multiples in the hope the trends are bucked.

[Lobos]

If anyone thinks Epatante is a good bet at 4/1 for the race in 6 months time, they may still leave a bet until she is entered to run, if you assume she won't shorten in the meantime.

Personally those sort of prices antepost so far in advance over hurdles or fences are a turn-off.

I dont think we need to know what the good priced alternatives are, just yet. If we don't see one, we dont bet on the race, until a horse emerges at a price we want, that we think could win.

In recent Septembers or Octobers, who backed the following March winners?:

* Epatante
* Espoir D'Allen
* Buveur D'Air - first time when he went novice chasing.
* Annie Power - when she had run in the Stayers after the Mares and the owner/trainer had Faugheen

Thats 4 out of the last 5 years, where almost all of the betting done in Sept/Oct wouldnt have been a winner

Only Buveur D'Air Year 2 was visible anywhere close to the top of the market.

None of those were reigning champs though. Big difference.

[Saxon Warrior]

None of those were reigning champs though. Big difference.

Thats the point.
They were not perceived as potential runners and/or winners.
The reigning champions and other early season favs all failed to win in 4 of the last 5 years.

[Hardy Eustace]

I agree, there is no point backing until he is entered I will wait till the stable tours (or until he is entered) until i do but I think he is a very solid 4/1 shot and I will be having a few points in the coming weeks.

I get your point on Epatante, Espoir D'allen and Annie Power but they were not 'normal' years.

Epatante was a bit of a freak last year, but in the last 20 years how often has something progressed that quickly to win?

Espoir D'allen won nicely on the face of it, but the race sort of fell apart, we will sadly never know how good he was but Buvuer D'air fell and apples jade ran no race, laurina wasnt good enough.

Annie Power was supplemented for the champion at the last minute - how often does that happen?!

Just because there have been a couple of recent irregular years does not necessarily mean that trend will continue.

[Saxon Warrior]

Hardy,

I understand.

I would say that each years market is unique, my comments are only there to show that backing short-priced horses to win jump races months in advance can be beaten by horses we dont even know about, or are switched to the race, or improve, or beat favs that fall in the race.

Its the wonderful nature of racing.