Champion Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Ruby’s comparison with the Annie power race was interesting but would have been even more so had he also used the espoir dallen win.
as the fancied horses set the pace then and all fell by the wayside one way or another.

james de berlais is 5 yr old and likes to be held up. And has a rating in the 160’s from nowhere.
is he this years espoir dallen ?

Apple's Jade ran under par
Laurina was never good.
Buveur fell...

I think his wider point was that's 'for luck', so if Honeysuckle is under par, and Goshen was under par (or not that good) she would be much more likely to win.





If James Du Berlais goes off single figures I will be amazed. He's surely going to drift on the day. ComplyOrDie - casual punters will either back last years winner, or Honeysuckle 1111111111 on the race card?

If he goes single figures I'll be loving it though, will lay him off for a free go and cheer him on like he's my own son.

[Spectre]

I'm not sure I agree that Epatante needs to be within 5 or 6 lengths of Honeysuckle. It may be that she wants to be somewhere much further off her.

There's real potential that the Champion Hurdle is run at breakneck speed. There are four horses that may want to lead or at least be in the van, Not So Sleepy, Aspire Tower, Silver Streak, and Goshen. You'd also think Honeysuckle won't want to be too far off them given she'll ideally want to be pushing into the lead off the final bend, and challenging the rest to pass her.

Not So Sleepy will probably get his way as connections have the least to lose, but it's a problem for Goshen who isn't going to get space and will be eyeballed at most hurdles. I think Moore is the one who has the biggest problem in terms of how to ride the race, because Goshen wants space.

The race has real potential to be run at a furious gallop, and if so the horses to benefit could be Epatante, Sharjah, Abracadabras, James de Berlais, and Buveur D'air if they don't get sucked into it. As for Coleman on Epatante, he's going to have to be smart about it by pushing her out early and then dropping her back if they go too fast. Following Honeysuckle off a normal gallop makes some sense, but if this is hard run she's better well of the pace. Essentially I think Coleman should run his own race and not get wrapped up in what others do. If she runs her own optimum race she either wins or goes close. If he runs someone elses race I suspect it could go horribly wrong.

[Quevega]

I'm not sure I agree that Epatante needs to be within 5 or 6 lengths of Honeysuckle. It may be that she wants to be somewhere much further off her.

There's real potential that the Champion Hurdle is run at breakneck speed. There are four horses that may want to lead or at least be in the van, Not So Sleepy, Aspire Tower, Silver Streak, and Goshen. You'd also think Honeysuckle won't want to be too far off them given she'll ideally want to be pushing into the lead off the final bend, and challenging the rest to pass her.

Not So Sleepy will probably get his way as connections have the least to lose, but it's a problem for Goshen who isn't going to get space and will be eyeballed at most hurdles. I think Moore is the one who has the biggest problem in terms of how to ride the race, because Goshen wants space.

The race has real potential to be run at a furious gallop, and if so the horses to benefit could be Epatante, Sharjah, Abracadabras, James de Berlais, and Buveur D'air if they don't get sucked into it. As for Coleman on Epatante, he's going to have to be smart about it by pushing her out early and then dropping her back if they go too fast. Following Honeysuckle off a normal gallop makes some sense, but if this is hard run she's better well of the pace. Essentially I think Coleman should run his own race and not get wrapped up in what others do. If she runs her own optimum race she either wins or goes close. If he runs someone elses race I suspect it could go horribly wrong.

It's a tricky one.
As they might not all come back or be passable.
At least three of them could keep going.
Much like Ruby said.

It'a big gamble to let such good horses off with more than a 5 or 6 length margin.
Even Hurricane Fly couldn't do that. And Ruby blames himself for that defeat.

Don't get me wrong - if the jockey is good enough to sense they are going way too fast then fair enough.

Even Forgetting all that, he's just allowed Silver Streak a soft enough lead (cos on form he thought he had him covered) and is unlikely to do that again.

I'd be surprised and disappointed if she's held up too far off the pace.

[Kevloaf]

It's a tricky one.
As they might not all come back or be passable.
At least three of them could keep going.
Much like Ruby said.

It'a big gamble to let such good horses off with more than a 5 or 6 length margin.
Even Hurricane Fly couldn't do that. And Ruby blames himself for that defeat.

Don't get me wrong - if the jockey is good enough to sense they are going way too fast then fair enough.

Even Forgetting all that, he's just allowed Silver Streak a soft enough lead (cos on form he thought he had him covered) and is unlikely to do that again.

I'd be surprised and disappointed if she's held up too far off the pace.

Yeah, I'm not sure I trust Aidan Coleman to get it right essentially. The horse would need to get him out of trouble.

Rachel Blackmore is the least likely to get the pace wrong on her own horse.... you'd anticipate Moore runs the race we're all expecting.... I think they'd ignore Not So Sleepy. Silver Streak's Adam Wedge I couldn't call... I guess he'll go as fast as his horse can early on...

I don't think all of them will get it wrong, therefore, I'd think Epatante does need to be within 6L, of whichever one he thinks is right to do so at the time.



Sharjah will be right out the back, as will JDB..... if Epatante is back there with them, she's too far back..... she should be ahead of Sharjah that should be a given!

Spectre (quoted Q but mainly responding to you)

[Spectre]

There's no Davey, Ruby or Barry who have clocks in there heads. Too many of the next grade of jockeys follow the pace whatever it is. In this instance there are a lot of horses that want to be right up there or very near it. And at least two horses that run with the choke out. And it doesn't matter how many of them are up there, if they go too fast they tread water at the end, however many of them there are.

I think Jamie Moore has the biggest problem tactically. What does he do with Goshen if they go fast? Rachel will sit just off the pace whatever it is, and Coleman has a decision to make. My problem, and I'm agreeing with you, is I'm not sure I trust him to read the race and do the right thing.

I do think this race is won by a closer, not one at the front, and probably by the smartest jockey of those with a chance.

[ComplyOrDie]

It's a tricky one.
As they might not all come back or be passable.
At least three of them could keep going.
Much like Ruby said.

.

I agree with this.

Jamie won't care if he has to take a lead or is given one, Goshen can do both, and not only that he can sustain a certain pace throughout as he has done previously. His one downfall is if something comes there swinging away, although that'll take a mighty performance given the likely early fractions they all have to keep up with in the first place, however the one horse who I think can and likely will outpace Goshen at any point is Honeysuckle. She has the mix of speed and stamina that may just be required this year.

Epatante has a bit to prove now, given her Christmas run and the back issue. She'd be a great price for a previous winner if it wasn't for that performance. I have a niggling doubt about her now.

If I had to give my 1, 2, 3 now I'd probably go as follows:

1. Honeysuckle
2. Goshen
3. James Du Berlais (because I think he'll do a Sharjah and be ridden for a place, but is better than Sharjah).

Crazy thought to have left out the reigning champ, but I have noted why above.

Of the rest I do struggle with the overall form, it's a bit hit and miss (although the same can be said of Goshen I guess).

If Epatante really did have an issue then you can mark down Silver Streaks performance over Christmas. The Irish lot are at the mercy of Honeysuckle, as well as having mixed results throughout the season. One of them could hit the frame but I don't think they're getting any nearer to Honeysuckle.

If Epatante does bounce back then absolutely fair play to her, she's a good winner for me so I'm not going to be too disappointed.

[ComplyOrDie]

There's no Davey, Ruby or Barry who have clocks in there heads. Too many of the next grade of jockeys follow the pace whatever it is. In this instance there are a lot of horses that want to be right up there or very near it. And at least two horses that run with the choke out. And it doesn't matter how many of them are up there, if they go too fast they tread water at the end, however many of them there are.

I think Jamie Moore has the biggest problem tactically. What does he do with Goshen if they go fast? Rachel will sit just off the pace whatever it is, and Coleman has a decision to make. My problem, and I'm agreeing with you, is I'm not sure I trust him to read the race and do the right thing.

I do think this race is won by a closer, not one at the front, and probably by the smartest jockey of those with a chance.

Jamie does what he's always done when they go too fast, he tracks them Like he did with Allmankind, who was a real headcase. He also tracked/run alongside Navajo Pass, LTO, too.

When Goshen has been up with the pace he has never fallen into a hole or trod water. He's usually hosed up. Obviously this is a Champion Hurdle and would be disrespectful to think he can do the same to this field, but he's not going to wilt away like people think he will, he's never done that, except when tactics were changed. You only have to have a look at his flat runs to see he's never chucked the towel in when headed.

[Moby123]

I agree with this.

Jamie won't care if he has to take a lead or is given one, Goshen can do both, and not only that he can sustain a certain pace throughout as he has done previously. His one downfall is if something comes there swinging away, although that'll take a mighty performance given the likely early fractions they all have to keep up with in the first place, however the one horse who I think can and likely will outpace Goshen at any point is Honeysuckle. She has the mix of speed and stamina that may just be required this year.

Epatante has a bit to prove now, given her Christmas run and the back issue. She'd be a great price for a previous winner if it wasn't for that performance. I have a niggling doubt about her now.

If I had to give my 1, 2, 3 now I'd probably go as follows:

1. Honeysuckle
2. Goshen
3. James Du Berlais (because I think he'll do a Sharjah and be ridden for a place, but is better than Sharjah).

Crazy thought to have left out the reigning champ, but I have noted why above.

Of the rest I do struggle with the overall form, it's a bit hit and miss (although the same can be said of Goshen I guess).

If Epatante really did have an issue then you can mark down Silver Streaks performance over Christmas. The Irish lot are at the mercy of Honeysuckle, as well as having mixed results throughout the season. One of them could hit the frame but I don't think they're getting any nearer to Honeysuckle.

If Epatante does bounce back then absolutely fair play to her, she's a good winner for me so I'm not going to be too disappointed.

That's a bloody bold call!!
Where is the evidence for that?
I'd certainly be all over Sharjah in a 10/11 each of two match bet.

[ComplyOrDie]

That's a bloody bold call!!
Where is the evidence for that?
I'd certainly be all over Sharjah in a 10/11 each of two match bet.

Sorry, I missed out the word 'probably'.

But overall, this is my opinion, although I think the handicapper agrees, with JdB being given a mark of 167 I believe (I think Willie mentioned this).

[Moby123]

Ok. Some of the handicap marks given to French horses when they run here are a sight to behold though.

[OldPersian]

Ok. Some of the handicap marks given to French horses when they run here are a sight to behold though.

Absolutely. Sharjah is a decent horse if it gets its ground.

FWIW I can't look passed Honeysuckle for this - I just think she will prove to be the best horse with the best jockey on her back.

Goshen etc will fly off in front but whether they can sustain it AND repel the likes of Honeysuckle and Epatante / Sharjah is another story.

[dannycraigpirates]

Ok. Some of the handicap marks given to French horses when they run here are a sight to behold though.

It’s because all the best french horses are sold to UK and Ireland so makes the remaining horses look better than they are, artificially increasing handicap marks across the industry. I’m surprised more owners are sending horses over there to sweep up the big pots

[ComplyOrDie]

Ok. Some of the handicap marks given to French horses when they run here are a sight to behold though.

I mean, I can't argue this about many and would, on the most part agree. I do like JdB's French form though, although as already been highlighted on here more than once, he's been purchased for novice chasing next season, so it will be a bonus if he runs into a place.

I actually think 3rd place is up for grabs (unless Epatante comes right back to form) and could be anything that claims it, but I chucked in the unknown JdB.

[Moby123]

I'd have Silver Streak pushing for a place ahead of most of the field. I think he will finally get his ground, the fast pace he thrives on and (most importantly) be in the perfect position tucked in behind the pacesetters and not too far back, arriving at the party too late, now that they are having him ridden differently.
What an intriguing race this is.

[ComplyOrDie]

What an intriguing race this is.

It really is. I've not been as excited about a Champion Hurdle like this years one in a quite a while. Let's hope it lives up to the hype surrounding it.