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Fuck Goshen.
& Honeysucks.
Nicky never lies or exaggerates.
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Fuck Goshen.
& Honeysucks.
Nicky never lies or exaggerates. -
Nicky probably believes himself in this exact moment tbfComment
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
The race reminds me of the apples jade year.
Won the Irish champion hurdle by 16L (as predicted
) and bombed when it mattered
- see honeysuckle ?
Buvuer dair lost the Christmas hurdle with uncharacteristic jumping mistakes, after looking awesome at Newcastle then fell when it mattered - see epatante ?
Laurina looking like an absolute machine at cheltenham the season before but then not seen till very late in the season and still looking very good and was very much a marmite horse and was off her feet early when it mattered - see goshen ?
Who the fuck is this years Espoir D'allen ???
This years renewal will be ran at a strong pace, question will be whether the conditions will be tested (like it was when Espoir D'allen won it) or whether we'll have half decent ground for once. Lets see what the weather Gods give us
If it comes up testing like the year Espoir D'allen won this, then jesus... they're going to be running in different time zones.
I think Honeysuckle will be suit best. Along with Goshen, but the Honey will put him to one side as they hit that hill.
On better ground, which is starting to look more likely based on forecasts... it will suit the better jumpers who enjoy a strongly ran race.
- Epatante jumps really really well but thats twice now I've see her faulter in two races where the pace may have been too quick for her. Mares Novice and the defeat at Kempton. If the race was tactical, over Goft to Soft, I'd be going back in and backing Epatante again. However, she may be a horse that just throws a strop when off the bridle. I don't see Epatante as a battler, a proper harden horse
- Abacadabras, I expect to run much better over similar conditions. Just parked in mid-field, taking his time. I still think there are 1-2 others that are better over such conditions. I'd take more interest if they stick hear gear on this horse, again, I just havent seen that 'I'm going to F***ing win this race' attitude from Aba, I think he needs sharpening up and head gear may just do this
- Sharjah, conditions would suit. Expect him to place again.
I've become less bull'ish about this race, and that's expected as race conditions tends to play a significant role in this race. Main focus now will to split out the best of the Irish / GB, categorise them based on race conditions and then see what we get on the day
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I do remember watching JDB last May on ATR by chance, just bored and wasting time but I remember thinking wow that horse has some engine the way he powered home in the last furlong. From what I’ve seen he could spring a real surprise here.Originally posted by Istabraq View PostComment
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The odd thing is Mullins has only had the horse about a month and he declared him for the Champion immediately, and he knows what Champion Hurdler looks like.
It’s a fascinating race and it goes far deeper than the two mars for me...Comment
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Ruby made some interesting comments about how they thought the race would be run... discussed Annie Power's 2016 win...where the pace was strong and maintained and the horses that did well (her and MTOY) were up there.
I wonder if Epatante's jockey will sit too far back and give her too much to do.... Epatante, Goshen, Aspire Tower.... if even 1 of them kelp going up the hill, would she get there in time?
That was the gist I took from it.... it made me think the jockey needs to give a bloody good ride to Epatante to win it... I feel like if she's more than 6L off at any point, she's given them too much rope.... it's not like last year when it was no hopers making the running....Comment
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agree with this and mentioned on an earlier post that Epatante will need to be no further than around 5 lengths off Honeysuckle at any point. I can see Epatante travelling menacingly to 2 out but Honey running the finish out of her up the hill. I’d expect Goshen and AT to drop off them and Aba or Sharjah picking up the pieces.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
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Interesting discussion. Race tactics are going to be critical in this race
To be fair, take out the horses and back based on the jockey, the one who'd likely going to get this right. Worth a play
Green - those I'd trust to get the pace ride. Coleman just about made it
Amber - least so
Red - really cant see them getting the race right
Blackmore - Yup. Have confidence in Rachael's ability to get his race right
Coleman - Just about made it into the Green. I think I trust him to ride a decent race
Townsend - I think he's much better on the new course, time will tell now he has first pick on Day 1 and Day 2
Kennedy - ermmm probably could, but I'm unsure in a CH
Wedge - ?
Nico - I think he needs a superstar underneath him
Moore - Do not trust him to ride a winner at the festival, dont have confident he will get this tactically right
Hmmmm... tried to remove any biased, but I'm sure it may have crept in lol
Will have to watch Road To Chellt tomorrow, but interesting comments on what Ruby said. I'd be happy to see Honeysuckle ride this like Annie Power's winComment
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Don't disagree with your jockey ratings in particular, but does Moore even need to be that tactically aware? Goshen is probably the easiest ride (tactics wise), just needs to put him near the front and let him do his thing.Originally posted by opatcho View Post
I'd probably have Coleman in the yellow category myself, but he has a much harder job (again tactics wise) than Moore will have. As a side note I'd certainly rather have PT on board than AC.Comment
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Fairly sure Moore proved last year he can get it tactically spot on round Cheltenham on GoshenOriginally posted by opatcho View PostComment
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Based on Hendersons recent comments I doubt she'll be too far back, and too far away from honeysuckle in particular.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
However, in a race like this you could easily be following the wrong horse.
Like Ruby on Annie Power behind Big Bucks. Forgetting about the donkey that won it.Comment
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Racing Post Headline: 'Nicky Henderson has Epatante in Champion Hurdle form with back issues remedied'
The actual language - "She had a bit of a sore back and we've had that treated. She had a little bit more than physio. I don't know if that was all that was wrong at Kempton but she wasn't comfortable for whatever reason. She has always been a bit rigid."
The reality is Henderson wont have a clue if the issue has been fully resolved until she's placed in a race as physically demanding as the Champion Hurdle.
People (inc me) think Goshen will either win (not me) or finish tailed off - I think the same can be applied to Epatante given the above because if there are any remnants of that issue unresolved she wont place in a race this deep.
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Well Epatante is too short for a horse that got well beat last time we saw her, and you are right, he and us won’t know.Originally posted by charlie View Post
Backers are hoping she will have improved from last years performance because I think she will have to.
For me Honey and Goshen are more formidable opponents and i expect more improvement from Aba.
Right now I think Honey is the most solid of em all, her price is fair, and the most likely winner, but I can see a scenario that has Aba, Epatante and Goshen winning as well.
very intriguing race we have to look forward to!!!
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James Du Berlais could go off singles figures, couldn't he?
Just 20/1 NRNB and as low as 14/1 NRNB now.
Unknown type (to the majority of punters at least) from the Mullins yard. I can see him being steamed in to.
He could well be looked at as the Mullins number 1 for the race, given the form of his other runners.Comment
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Ruby’s comparison with the Annie power race was interesting but would have been even more so had he also used the espoir dallen win.Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
as the fancied horses set the pace then and all fell by the wayside one way or another.
james de berlais is 5 yr old and likes to be held up. And has a rating in the 160’s from nowhere.
is he this years espoir dallen ?Comment
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