Champion Hurdle 2021

[opatcho]

Fairly sure Abacadabras has seen the rear end of Aspire Tower on a couple of occasions this season...

Didnt they say that about Jezki?

GE horses still performing below par. I dont expect him to have a quiet festival
Think i'd have Abacadabras over Towel for this, actually.... I would.

Strong pace... those sitting off it will do well. Abacadabras will sit off the pace, as he did in the supreme. My question is.... will he actually battle on and sit his head in front

Remember saying a few months back I'd stick headgear on Abacadabras, he needs a nudge

All about the prices now... in play could be exciting

[opatcho]

He's not a juvenile anymore. He's 5.



If all 4 'run below par' you'll just be crabbing his form anyway, like you've done about Song For Someone, who 'ran below form', so that makes no sense. Sounds like excuses are in early.

Also, regarding your Epatante comment, I don't think she's been quickly binned at all, she remained at the head of the market until Honeysuckle won. Goshen went out to 25/1, so who actually got 'binned' on the back of their performance? The difference now is we've seen Goshen back out. We won't see Epatante until the festival.



People are not bullish because he is 4/1, we don't make them prices, the bookmakers do, the majority on here are bullish based on that performance at the weekend. And pretty much everyone that wanted to back him are on at bigger prices, but please don't mistake that with us thinking he is the right price now.

I still believe Honeysuckle is the one to beat, that doesn't retract from the fact I think Goshen is being given an unfair hard time because he hammers fields the way he does. When this happens it usually always boils down to the excuse that the horses in behind haven't run their races, pretty much every time, actually.

He's not a juvenile anymore. He's 5.

Aware.

I dont back juveniles from the previous year unless they win a grade 1 ahead of the fest. Happy to be found out once every 20 years.

I still believe Honeysuckle is the one to beat, that doesn't retract from the fact I think Goshen is being given an unfair hard time because he hammers fields the way he does. When this happens it usually always boils down to the excuse that the horses in behind haven't run their races, pretty much every time, actually.

I have the horses I want for this race covered. However, that wont stop me wanting to pick the winner on the day.
Will depend on conditions

- Decent good to soft ground, and if she looks ok during the prelims. I'll be siding with Epatante. Sharjah comes into the mix, big place bet
- Soft ground, a little heavy. Honeysuckle
- Heavy, mud pit. Honeysuckle. Goshen creeps into the mix IF the Moores attack the race.

Aba remains on the shortlist, but struggling to work out race conditions that will suit.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Aware.

I dont back juveniles from the previous year unless they win a grade 1 ahead of the fest. Happy to be found out once every 20 years.





I have the horses I want for this race covered. However, that wont stop me wanting to pick the winner on the day.
Will depend on conditions

- Decent good to soft ground, and if she looks ok during the prelims. I'll be siding with Epatante. Sharjah comes into the mix, big place bet
- Soft ground, a little heavy. Honeysuckle
- Heavy, mud pit. Honeysuckle. Goshen creeps into the mix IF the Moores attack the race.

Aba remains on the shortlist, but struggling to work out race conditions that will suit.

But yet you've backed Goshen to win the Champion Hurdle?

[Kevloaf]

But yet you've backed Goshen to win the Champion Hurdle?

At 25/1 ... you do the math (s)

[charlie]

Goshen splitting souls

[robith]

Me, sitting at my computer in August 2020: wow, Goshen is a dreadful price for the Champion Hurdle given 5 year olds' record in the race

Suddenly, a tear in space time erupts. Through the glowing blue portal, me from Feb 2021 steps through

"It actually gets worse"

[opatcho]

But yet you've backed Goshen to win the Champion Hurdle?

Yup...

I may talk crap, but some of my crap does make sense.
25/1 for a horse that's shorten up to 4/1 within 3 weeks, I'll take that thank you every much

I may not like the horse, but I loveeeeee the price I backed him at.
Didnt think I needed to explain that


Anyway, just in case you missed the posted - dated 3 February 2021

I've spent the last 10 months being strongly against Goshen for this race. His early Ante-post price was a big no-no for me and then the Moore's decided to run the horse over flats - terrible campaign!

However, I did call out a few scenarios where I'd backed Goshen. It's been interesting to dig these out and it appears these scenarios have materialised (weirdly)

1) Goshen is currently out to 16/1 NRNB, 25/1 without
2) Connections unable to run him, terrible prep but that's factored into his current price. However, he's been likely raced unlike some of the previous juveniles that struggled during the first year in open company
3) The Moores this "all or nothing" / "might aswell just chuck him in" / "less pressure now" situation. Stick him in the race, and just do what this horse does best - go off hard at the front - all or nothing

On top of this....

4) He had an excuse for the poor run in the International - fibrillating heart... same reason given for Paisley Park's defeat in March, PP has since come back and put all that behind him. Could Goshen?
5) My 'going' bias is pointing strongly towards a soft-heavy festival, and I can see a situation where the Moores just go for broke with this horse with a "jump out in front and just go hard". This horse has underperformed this season, expectations are broken, its time for a nothing to lose approach here
6) Four months ago I was expected so much more from the projected entries but ended up with Epatante's shock defeat and questions marks over her back, Sharjah turning out to be a horse needing a race to run 100% to how he likes it, Honeysuckle just about beating a bunch of 3 milers at Fairyhouse, Abacadabra showing how little scope he has left, and then a bunch of horses who have managed to scrap a win or two in a open division.

So yeah, I was expected one or two to really take hold of this race by now.. but I'm left with more questions than answers

As a result, I'm going to add Goshen 1pt on 16/1 NRNB and 1pt on 25/1.

If he wins his little prep race, then he'll be halved
If he loses his little prep race, depending on how far, then they may just give up the dream and I get some credits back
If he's unable to get a prep race in, then it sounds like the Moores will go straight there

Oh go, what have I done! lol

[Kevloaf]

Me, sitting at my computer in August 2020: wow, Goshen is a dreadful price for the Champion Hurdle given 5 year olds' record in the race

Suddenly, a tear in space time erupts. Through the glowing blue portal, me from Feb 2021 steps through

"It actually gets worse"

Hahahah.


Recency bias is an incredidble thing.

[Kevloaf]

Yup...

I may talk crap, but some of my crap does make sense.
25/1 for a horse that's shorten up to 4/1 within 3 weeks, I'll take that thank you every much

I may not like the horse, but I loveeeeee the price I backed him at.
Didnt think I needed to explain that


Anyway, just in case you missed the posted - dated 3 February 2021

Self-praise is no praise....

However, would have been criminal for that to have been missed - it's a very good post.


I think you fall into a similar category to plenty of others now, and something I can relate to, whereby you take a price about a horse that is just too big even if you didn't like the horse before..... part of you wants it to win because it was a smart bet, and the other part wants it to lose to prove you were right in the first place

[Kevloaf]

SALDIER

Unibet Champion Hurdle

He’s another I entered in the County Hurdle this morning, but his aim all season has been the Champion Hurdle and both me and Rich (Ricci) would like to see him end up in there and we’re pressing every button to get him there.


Istabraq

[Joeski29]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but in the RP when they say Saint Roi is ruled out they say the new French recruit James de Berlais is waiting in the background.

They quote willie as saying he's been bought as a novice chaser but they are going to give him a try in the champion hurdle and mentions him having a rating of 167.

Best price I can see is 33s, 35s with boost, with Ladbrokes

[Kevloaf]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but in the RP when they say Saint Roi is ruled out they say the new French recruit James de Berlais is waiting in the background.

They quote willie as saying he's been bought as a novice chaser but they are going to give him a try in the champion hurdle and mentions him having a rating of 167.

Best price I can see is 33s, 35s with boost, with Ladbrokes

He certainly has, but always better to bring up that not!

I know scooby likes him too.



Even though he's been bigger prices, it's a big price given connections.... I think he'll go off shorter.

[Hurricane fly]

JDB will be mentioned as a dark horse at every single preview this year

[Outlaw]

Some of these French ratings appear absolutely tosh over here these days. Can’t say I follow the French stuff one bit, it just looks like the the Hcapper should do the opposite of what he does to the Irish horses for most of them

[Kevloaf]

Some of these French ratings appear absolutely tosh over here these days. Can’t say I follow the French stuff one bit, it just looks like the the Hcapper should do the opposite of what he does to the Irish horses for most of them

Yeah, I'd be amazed if he's worth that rating...and even if he is he needs to imrpove if a few of them hit their marks....

However, plenty have 80/1 and 50/1, and at those prices, it's worth a poke.



The shorter he gets, the worse it becomes, but that's true of most horses in most races