Champion Hurdle 2021

[Quevega]

Thats true of Goshen now, and PH last season.

Wasn't the case with Espoir D'Allen (RIP) fortunately.

There's just very little quality depth coming out of 4yo hurdles each season because of the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Espoir dallen was never a good bet for the champion hurdle at any stage.
Except in running.


Anyone who did back him was guessing. Pure punting. And good on em

[Middle_Of_March]

Goshen is 4/1 joint favourite with Epatante with 365.

That is a bananas bit of pricing.


I'll make a statement now that I am quick to jump on others for, which is that 'I cannot understand that'


Is anybody on here of the opinion that Goshen is a better bet, at the same price, than Epatante?

4/1 is just about the most ridiculous price of any horse available antepost right now. Salsaretta a close second for the Mares Chase.

[Might_Bite]

Goshen is a smelly price!

to think the bunch of 4yo headcases he was going to beat by 10 lengths, are anywhere near even some of the lesser open company ponies (yet still solid yardsticks) that epatante put to bed in the CH is a craziness.

To think Saldier is over 6x the price of Goshen having beaten a supreme and multiple grade1 winner is mental

Goshen now wins - 4/1

[Lobos]

If Goshen wins there are going to be some seriously red faces on here... myself included. I've also left out Abacadabras from my Churdle bets as well as I cannot bring myself to back him either. With him though it's just a personal thing. I do think he's the 2021 equivalent of Harchibald. He'll always flatter to deceive and find one too good.......imo !

[Saxon Warrior]

Espoir dallen was never a good bet for the champion hurdle at any stage.
Except in running.


Anyone who did back him was guessing. Pure punting. And good on em

Thats just wrong.


Unless this whole website is just guessing.

Espoir D was improving at a rate of knots, had won 7 out of 8 hurdle races and was unbeaten in his Champion Hurdle winning season.

He had risen in the ratings from 147 to 155 two races before the CH, then

He rose from 155 to 162 in his last race before the Festival.

His OR of 162 when he lined up put him in with a reasonable chance.

FWIW 162 this year would have him better than every horse lining up in this seasons Champion Hurdle apart from Sharjah 1pt higher at 163. Epatante on 159 (+7lb) was the top rated.

Truth is ED was a CH longshot player from the start of the season.
He mooched around Grade 2 and 3s keeping a lower profile because his trainer thought he was 1 year short of a shot at the big race.

He changed his mind after his last run pre-Festival and decided to run.

He was well worth a bet at 33/1 or 25/1 with cashout, or even NRNB by the time the horse was confirmed as definitely going for the race.

If he was 4/1 at that time, like Goshen is now, I wouldnt have given him a second look though.

[opatcho]

If Goshen wins there are going to be some seriously red faces on here... myself included. I've also left out Abacadabras from my Churdle bets as well as I cannot bring myself to back him either. With him though it's just a personal thing. I do think he's the 2021 equivalent of Harchibald. He'll always flatter to deceive and find one too good.......imo !

Why would there be red faces, the horse is currently priced at 4/1 - it’s a terrible AP price

Taken from the 2020 CH thread, 11 months ago

Espoir D’Allen 5/1
Klassical Dream 6/1
Buveur D’Air 8/1
Pentland Hills 16/1
Apple’s Jade 25/1
Fusil Raffles 25/1
Laurina 25/1
Melon 25/1
Aramon 33/1
Elixir De Nutz 33/1
Fakir D’Oudairies 33/1
Honeysuckle 33/1
Saldier 33/1
Verdana Blue 33/1
Band Of Outlaws 40/1
Sharjah 40/1


Obviously massive a shame we didn’t get to see whether Espoir could retain his title. Eptante no where to be seen, Sharjah 40/1!

I see no value at 4/1. As it stands, I don’t think Goshen would beat Epatante, I also feel the new course suited Goshen. Don’t trust the trainer, prefer to side with Henderson and Mullins got this race, and I continue to leave these 4 year olds out - stats go against them.

Happy for this post to be dug up in March if Goshen wins. I would be too unset about missing out on 4/1’s that we’re available five months earlier

My view right now is - stay well clear, hope he wins his trials and then try and take him on

[Spectre]

Just watched both the triumph & champion back there the question I had after it was how far does epatante beat that lot? Even further my answer

Or he ties up when hitting the hill after going for home so early. Which is another reason why he's poor value.

[Spectre]

If Goshen wins there are going to be some seriously red faces on here... myself included. I've also left out Abacadabras from my Churdle bets as well as I cannot bring myself to back him either. With him though it's just a personal thing. I do think he's the 2021 equivalent of Harchibald. He'll always flatter to deceive and find one too good.......imo !

No red faces Lobos. If he comes out and beats Champion Hurdle contenders well, then you'd take notice. I'd back him now at double figures to have him in my book, but why you'd back him now at 4/1 when he's not set foot in open company I don't know.

[OverTheLast]

Maybe from a selfish point of view I would like to see Abacadabras turn up at down royal in October in the WKD hurdle (if they let spectators in) I know someone mentioned before not a great record of cheltenham winners coming from the meeting, but Jezki did? Also a few places including melon. Or what path would you like to see Gordon's runner to go down?

Agree would be a good starting point. Samcro + Envoi Allen two winners at the meeting last year who went on to win at the Fez.

[Istabraq]

I think many will look at Goshen with a different set of eyes if he wins a couple of big flat handicaps and his (flat) rating heads past 100.
No question 4/1 will represent horrific value until he beats one or two serious champion hurdle competitors in a G1 but his profile should read better come Christmas.
He just needs to brush up on his jumping...

[gjt7756]

Goshen out September 26th hopefully over 1m6f At Haydock

[archie]

To have any relevance as a Champion Hurdle marker, Goshen would need a flat OR some way north of 100 if you use the standard 45 difference for flat/NH ratings. Given that Goshen's strength is very much galloping rather than jumping, you'd say that the flat rating will only be a distraction. Still, if it keeps the other contenders at gentleman's prices, I'm all for it.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Moore said: “Hopefully you’ll see him out at the end of the month.

“There are races at Haydock and Newmarket for him – there’s a race at Haydock on September 26 that we’re looking at.

“I’m very happy with him. There aren’t many conditions races over hurdles that he’ll be able to run in – you’ve got the Christmas Hurdle and the Fighting Fifth, but there aren’t a lot of races.

“I’d like to think he’s well enough handicapped on the Flat. He hasn’t run much and has very low mileage, so there’s no reason not to give him a couple of runs on the Flat and see how we get on.”

I'm reading that as Haydock prep before a tilt at the Cesarewitch. Anyone know when entries and weights for the Ces are announced? I'm hoping it's before 26th September.

[Lobos]

Goshen v Epatante in Xmas Hurdle will be some sight. Proper cat and mouse stuff. Getting excited now. The shitty flat season is coming to a close.

[Istabraq]

Goshen v Epatante in Xmas Hurdle will be some sight. Proper cat and mouse stuff. Getting excited now. The shitty flat season is coming to a close.

I’d be surprised if he was out before the new year.
If he’s to take in at least two big flat handicaps I’d imagine he would need a short break and plenty of schooling before being seen, if he was mine I might hold him back until the betfair hurdle and make that his only NH run before hitting the Spring festivals...