Champion Hurdle 2021

[opatcho]

Goshen identifies as a mare and will be running in the Novice Mares chase, connection have decided to go straight there after schooling well over 4 and a half twiglets

[Middle_Of_March]

Coral go 4/5 NRNB boosted for either Honeysuckle or Epatante to win this.

Anyone think that’s particularly good value? For my book of (95%) free bets for this race as planned all year, I’m in a good position but would hope for slightly more on ‘the big two’. So now I’m sat here tempted into a few points on this at 4/5 but very much unsure on it.

That being said.. it seems like the sort of boost someone like a Skybet might do at some point at something like Evens or 6/4.

What do we reckon?

[charlie]

Coral go 4/5 NRNB boosted for either Honeysuckle or Epatante to win this.

Anyone think that’s particularly good value? For my book of (95%) free bets for this race as planned all year, I’m in a good position but would hope for slightly more on ‘the big two’. So now I’m sat here tempted into a few points on this at 4/5 but very much unsure on it.

That being said.. it seems like the sort of boost someone like a Skybet might do at some point at something like Evens or 6/4.

What do we reckon?

I wouldn't touch it. The 1/2 in the betting haven't finished in the top 3 for the last 12 years, let alone 1st and 2nd. It's the sort of bet that looks really good but is in fact shit, even more so with Epatante having disappointed and had an issue LTO

[Lobos]

If Epatante and Honeysuckle arrive in peak fitness and run to form then I don't see anything other than one of those winning so that 4/5 looks fabulous...............on paper.

[charlie]

If Epatante and Honeysuckle arrive in peak fitness and run to form then I don't see anything other than one of those winning so that 4/5 looks fabulous...............on paper.

Did you not read my previous post? The top two in the betting haven't finished in the top 3 for the last 12 years, and Epatante comes off the back of disappointing run caused by a back issue. How is 4/5 even close to being fabulous?!? Monkfish @ 5/6 is a much better bet. So is Shishkin @5/6. So is Envoi @ 4/5. 4/5 about that bet is fraught with risk at such a short price, and history tells you it's extremely unlikely to happen.

[ComplyOrDie]

I wouldn't touch it. The 1/2 in the betting haven't finished in the top 3 for the last 12 years, let alone 1st and 2nd. It's the sort of bet that looks really good but is in fact shit, even more so with Epatante having disappointed and had an issue LTO

It's not for them to finish 1st & 2nd though, is it? It's for either of them to win the race.

That said, based on their current best odds it doesn't work out at value at all Middle_Of_March , 1pt on the 4/5 would yield 0.8pts profit, if you dutch 1pt across the two best prices (Epatante 11/4 & Honeysuckle 5/2) you could yield 0.81pts profit.

[charlie]

It's not for them to finish 1st & 2nd though, is it? It's for either of them to win the race.

That said, based on their current best odds it doesn't work out at value at all Middle_Of_March , 1pt on the 4/5 would yield 0.8pts profit, if you dutch 1pt across the two best prices (Epatante 11/4 & Honeysuckle 5/2) you could yield 0.81pts profit.

Ah I've misread it, apologies.

Still a shit bet IMO.

[ComplyOrDie]

Ah I've misread it, apologies.

Still a shit bet IMO.

It's not value or a boost compared with market prices, that's for sure haha!

6 of the last 10 favourites have won the race though, and one 2nd fav, so a 70% strike rate.

You do get the odd bigger priced winner, but it looks like it's much less likely to happen in a race like this, I'd imagine because the quality horses sort themselves out throughout the season off level weights anyway.

[Lobos]

It's not for them to finish 1st & 2nd though, is it? It's for either of them to win the race.

That said, based on their current best odds it doesn't work out at value at all Middle_Of_March , 1pt on the 4/5 would yield 0.8pts profit, if you dutch 1pt across the two best prices (Epatante 11/4 & Honeysuckle 5/2) you could yield 0.81pts profit.

Are your prices NRNB MOM ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Are your prices NRNB MOM ?

Epatante is 11/4 NRNB, Honeysuckle is not NRNB @ 5/2, so that would have to be taken into consideration, however, I'm not sure how it would work with a special, I guess it wouldn't be NRNB and therefore if one didn't show you're left with 4/5 about one of them only, which would be a bit desperate, however, I could be wrong.

[Lobos]

Epatante is 11/4 NRNB, Honeysuckle is not NRNB @ 5/2, so that would have to be taken into consideration, however, I'm not sure how it would work with a special, I guess it wouldn't be NRNB and therefore if one didn't show you're left with 4/5 about one of them only, which would be a bit desperate, however, I could be wrong.

MOM stated NRNB in his original post so if 1 of them didn't run then I would expect money back .

[ComplyOrDie]

MOM stated NRNB in his original post so if 1 of them didn't run then I would expect money back .

Yes he did, but it doesn't state whether that's one or both that need to be N/R's for it to be money back.

Even so, it's little margin, compared with their actual prices. It's really not that good an offer. I expect one of the other, better firms (IMO), to offer something a little more enticing.

[Lobos]

Yes he did, but it doesn't state whether that's one or both that need to be N/R's for it to be money back.

Even so, it's little margin, compared with their actual prices. It's really not that good an offer. I expect one of the other, better firms (IMO), to offer something a little more enticing.

Yeah possibly. Especially being on the first day and the fact that takings will be well down within on course betting. They'll be trying to entice people in with some tasty specials.

[charlie]

It's not value or a boost compared with market prices, that's for sure haha!

6 of the last 10 favourites have won the race though, and one 2nd fav, so a 70% strike rate.

You do get the odd bigger priced winner, but it looks like it's much less likely to happen in a race like this, I'd imagine because the quality horses sort themselves out throughout the season off level weights anyway.

If you did a poll now (sorry Q ) and asked the forum if they would rather back 4/5 about Epatante or Honeysuckle, or 4/5 about any one of Monkfish, Shishkin or EA, I'd be surprised if people didn't think the latter was a better bet. I suppose the result would largely hinge on how people view Epatante. I take the view that Honeysuckle has catapulted herself past Epatante, not necessarily from a pure ability point of view because Epatante on her best day would probably have too much speed for Honey, but that run last time was not Epatante and its not like she scoped dirty, Nicky specifically cited a back issue and 'hoped' it was corrected. However much backers play that down, that's far from ideal when weighing up an odds on bet at 4/5 when the fav is bankable at 9/4. In that context, I think calling it fabulous is ridiculous, but only because I view Epatante that way. For those willing to forgive the last run and don't think there's an issue, its not ridiculous to think one of them would win, of course it isn't!! I'd just have my reservations re Epatante. Last years race was shit and Honeysuckle looks class this year. If I was starting now I'd far rather take 9/4 Honeysuckle than that bet at 4/5, but that's just me.

[Lobos]

If you did a poll now (sorry Q ) and asked the forum if they would rather back 4/5 about Epatante or Honeysuckle, or 4/5 about any one of Monkfish, Shishkin or EA, I'd be surprised if people didn't think the latter was a better bet. I suppose the result would largely hinge on how people view Epatante. I take the view that Honeysuckle has catapulted herself past Epatante, not necessarily from a pure ability point of view because Epatante on her best day would probably have too much speed for Honey, but that run last time was not Epatante and its not like she scoped dirty, Nicky specifically cited a back issue and 'hoped' it was corrected. However much backers play that down, that's far from ideal when weighing up an odds on bet at 4/5 when the fav is bankable at 9/4. In that context, I think calling it fabulous is ridiculous, but only because I view Epatante that way. For those willing to forgive the last run and don't think there's an issue, its not ridiculous to think one of them would win, of course it isn't!! I'd just have my reservations re Epatante. Last years race was shit and Honeysuckle looks class this year. If I was starting now I'd far rather take 9/4 Honeysuckle than that bet at 4/5, but that's just me.

I think anyone would have two horses v one horse at the same odds surely ?? A month ago you couldn't have Honeysuckle anywhere near a Champion Hurdle.......now she's the winner . Funny old game Saint...