Champion Hurdle 2021

[Istabraq]

Assuming BDD is fit and well I am convinced WPM and his wife will go for whatever option is easiest (I hate the term 'easiest', but you know what I mean). I firmly believe as a 10yo with not many big days left, that they will move pieces around BDD (that's just my opinion, appreciate others with an opposing view )

I know the forum is split on on the result of last years mares hurdle but either way given where Honeysuckle now sits in the pecking order of hurdlers it has to go down as a decent run.
Quevega sat in her box for months then appeared at Cheltenham and Punchestown year after year so perhaps Mullins is trying to look after her and replicate the plan with BDD, rumours rarely come out of Closutton but for all we know BDD is working as well as ever.
It's all part of the guessing game we have to play when these horses aren't regular visitors to racecourse...

[jack1092]

Did Concertista's chances of coming here improve over the weekend? I think they have.

The 'easiest' race for BDD with no Honey is now the mares hurdle right? Unfinished business from last year etc. Would Willie make BDD's job in that race harder than it needs to be by adding Concertista? I think that would be unlikely.

What does Willie have for this now? None of his look like coming close to beating Honeysuckle - especially if Sharjah is his closest contender. Let's not forget, Concertista was fav for the Mares ahead of Honey before the weekend and put in a breathtaking performance over 2m last year.

We know Simon and Isaac favour CH runners, we know on ratings with the mares allowance concertista is at least a 160 mare, we know WPM runners are thin on the ground. Why not take her chance?

0.5pts Concertista @ 55's.

Said this to a friend, agree with it Charlie.

WPM's champion hurdle prospects look poor currently. He has two mares for the MH that would be 5/4 or shorter with no Honey.....why run both?

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't mind 'unlikely, but how can it make no sense? I've spelt out why it makes sense

Ammunition? Haha. Willie's ammunition for the Champion Hurdle currently looks like its being loaded into a spud gun

Assuming BDD is fit and well I am convinced WPM and his wife will go for whatever option is easiest (I hate the term 'easiest', but you know what I mean). I firmly believe as a 10yo with not many big days left, that they will move pieces around BDD (that's just my opinion, appreciate others with an opposing view )

Willie ultimately holds the keys as to how hard a time BDD is going to have. The Mares Chase will almost certainly include Elimay, with PTKO also looking likely. They will both be very hard to beat, but not as hard as Concertista in the mares IMO. 6lbs is not a lot to an improving race fit mare, especially one doing her winning on the snaff, and with arguably the most impressive cheltenham performance last year. Take Concertista out the mares and it looks like a penalty kick, and she has to go somewhere....

I never said it was good ammunition

It makes no sense for the reasons I noted.

I don't know what relationship Munir/Souede/Bromley have with WPM but if he tried moving my horse to a harder race for the sake another I'd be shot of him, no matter whether he's the holy grail of the festival or not.

Why would Elimay be any harder to beat than Concertista, in fact she's 13lbs behind Concertista on hurdles form having had 4 more runs than her over them obstacles. She's obviously rated higher and clearly better over fences, but that means little as we don't know how good BDD is over a fence, as she hasn't jumped one in public for 3 years, so her chase rating can be dismissed.

[ComplyOrDie]

Said this to a friend, agree with it Charlie.

WPM's champion hurdle prospects look poor currently. He has two mares for the MH that would be 5/4 or shorter with no Honey.....why run both?

Like when he ran both and Annie Power fell and Glens Melody won instead for him, or run both like when Benie Des Dieux fell and he had 2nd and 3rd in the race, because they weren't good enough to beat Roksana.

He lost his crown last season, when Honeysuckle won, he'll not want to risk it happening again.

He also raced Limini & Vroum Vroum Mag (both 1st and 2nd favs) together in the race and they still lost to Apples Jade!

[Quevega]

Did Concertista's chances of coming here improve over the weekend? I think they have.

The 'easiest' race for BDD with no Honey is now the mares hurdle right? Unfinished business from last year etc. Would Willie make BDD's job in that race harder than it needs to be by adding Concertista? I think that would be unlikely.

What does Willie have for this now? None of his look like coming close to beating Honeysuckle - especially if Sharjah is his closest contender. Let's not forget, Concertista was fav for the Mares ahead of Honey before the weekend and put in a breathtaking performance over 2m last year.

We know Simon and Isaac favour CH runners, we know on ratings with the mares allowance concertista is at least a 160 mare, we know WPM runners are thin on the ground. Why not take her chance?

0.5pts Concertista @ 55's.

I hope he does run here, and your logic is sound.
The only thing would be they've been setting Concertista up all season to run in the Mares.
So I think it's unlikely they'll switch.

They didn't last year with BDD when it looked obvious to do so.
And last year they had Elfile rated 151 & Stormy Ireland 153 to go to war with, and Stormy had looked just as good as Concertista last season in similar races.

As for Munir % Co, they would be appeased if he gets JDB to turn up.

[TigerRolllllll]

Concertista has 11 pounds on best RPRs to find with Honeysuckle and Epatante.....and is also behind many others

Willie always goes where he can most likely win and if both fit , can’t see other than Concertista in Mares Hurdle and Elimay in Chase

I think they will send Benie whichever looks better for horse ....unless one of above misses out if injured

For what it’s worth, I think Roksana could beat Concertista in Mares, tho not Benie

For those wanting to back Concertista in CH, I would double with Benie and Roksana

[jack1092]

Like when he ran both and Annie Power fell and Glens Melody won instead for him, or run both like when Benie Des Dieux fell and he had 2nd and 3rd in the race, because they weren't good enough to beat Roksana.

He lost his crown last season, when Honeysuckle won, he'll not want to risk it happening again.

He also raced Limini & Vroum Vroum Mag (both 1st and 2nd favs) together in the race and they still lost to Apples Jade!

GM was a 6/1 shot, having been backed- there was 12lbs difference and she wasn't even the 2nd highest rated mare in the field. Concertista is going to be a shorter price + a higher rated mare going into the race?

Limini and VVM is a better example i'd say, but then again, there was Apples Jade to beat. Who is there in the race that is as good as her for them to see it necessary to run both Concertista and Benie?!

[jack1092]

Concertista has 11 pounds on best RPRs to find with Honeysuckle and Epatante.....and is also behind many others

Willie always goes where he can most likely win and if both fit , can’t see other than Concertista in Mares Hurdle and Elimay in Chase

I think they will send Benie whichever looks better for horse ....unless one of above misses out if injured

For what it’s worth, I think Roksana could beat Concertista in Mares, tho not Benie

For those wanting to back Concertista in CH, I would double with Benie and Roksana

She's 153 in IRE. That's probably a little more in UK. with mares allowance that's early 160s and that is without being readily exposed. Epatante wasn't rated that much higher on her first try in the Champion.
WPM has Sharjah and that's realistically all to go to war with this year in the CH, bar a massive improvement from one of the others (not impossible ofc).
He'd have Concertista 7/4f currently in the mares and Benie currently 5/2 nrnb for the same race...Roksana is a good mare of course, but better over 3m it seems, is she ruled out of the Stayers?

Other than that, it's a penalty kick for both Benie and Concertista, why run both?!

[ComplyOrDie]

GM was a 6/1 shot, having been backed- there was 12lbs difference and she wasn't even the 2nd highest rated mare in the field. Concertista is going to be a shorter price + a higher rated mare going into the race?

Limini and VVM is a better example i'd say, but then again, there was Apples Jade to beat. Who is there in the race that is as good as her for them to see it necessary to run both Concertista and Benie?!

Glens Melody was 6/1 but still 2nd fav, so he had 1st and 2nd favourites, same as in the race Limini & VVM were as well. He'd rather go to the mares double handed (or more on some occasions), which is not an opinion, that's exactly what he has done.

You can't honestly believe Willie thinks he can beat Honeysuckle with Concertista? She's only been beating Minella Melody, and she's rated almost 20lbs behind Honeysuckle.

The logic behind it, IMO, is flawed, and this coming from someone who, at the very start of the season thought Concertista could be a Champion Hurdle contender. I just don't see it now, and she's a bigger price (on the exchanges) if I did still think so, so it's not as if I've missed out on that front.

Also, using the logic that he has nothing for the Champion Hurdle, well he has even less for the Stayers so why not send Benie down that route? And then Concertista has the Mares Hurdle at her mercy.

[Quevega]

She's 153 in IRE. That's probably a little more in UK. with mares allowance that's early 160s and that is without being readily exposed. Epatante wasn't rated that much higher on her first try in the Champion.
WPM has Sharjah and that's realistically all to go to war with this year in the CH, bar a massive improvement from one of the others (not impossible ofc).
He'd have Concertista 7/4f currently in the mares and Benie currently 5/2 nrnb for the same race...Roksana is a good mare of course, but better over 3m it seems, is she ruled out of the Stayers?

Other than that, it's a penalty kick for both Benie and Concertista, why run both?!

Not had best of luck with that last fence over the years though has he ?
If you can have 2 good chances ?
Why not ?

[jonthehammer]

Champion Hurdle scratched

Beacon Edge
Call Me Lord
Ribble Valley
Marie’s Rock

[charlie]

GM was a 6/1 shot, having been backed- there was 12lbs difference and she wasn't even the 2nd highest rated mare in the field. Concertista is going to be a shorter price + a higher rated mare going into the race?

Limini and VVM is a better example i'd say, but then again, there was Apples Jade to beat. Who is there in the race that is as good as her for them to see it necessary to run both Concertista and Benie?!

Spot on IMO.

Willie aimed two bullets to take on AJ, why aim two bullets to beat........er......Roksana? That's the closest thing to a rival right? Roksana may very well miss Cheltenham, or go stayers as she is much better over 3m IMO - BDD clearly has her measure on form if she ends up here - why double up in the mares when your champion hurdle hand looks like a busted flush?

Simon and Isaac love having CH runners it seems, and she might be behind on ratings but she'd have a chance.

I can see where people are coming from on both sides of the debate.

[charlie]

Not had best of luck with that last fence over the years though has he ?
If you can have 2 good chances ?
Why not ?

Does he need 2 chances though? BDD would piss that current mares field without Concertista providing she stays on her feet no?

[archie]

I don't know what relationship Munir/Souede/Bromley have with WPM but if he tried moving my horse to a harder race for the sake another I'd be shot of him, no matter whether he's the holy grail of the festival or not.

The 'if I was the owner' betting strategy is apparently used quite a lot on here. It is seriously flawed, particularly where Willie is concerned.

There is also the argument that some owners (like Munir/Souede?) would prefer a sporting shot at the Champion Hurdle rather than an even money crack at the Mares. It will still be Willie's call but if he was so minded I don't think that they would take much persuasion.

[ComplyOrDie]

Champion Hurdle scratched

Beacon Edge
Call Me Lord
Ribble Valley
Marie’s Rock

Happy about this one not being entered as backed him for the Coral Cup