Originally posted by Kevloaf
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Hello Fat Jockeys,
Upgrading the Fat Jockey forum!: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/fatjockeyforum
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Kevloaf @ Fat Jockey
Upgrading the Fat Jockey forum!: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/fatjockeyforum
We're looking to upgrade the 'hosting CPU' so I've set up a crowdfunding project.
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Kevloaf @ Fat Jockey
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Champion Hurdle 2021
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Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Originally posted by Spectre View Post
It starting to look like last year for me. Nothing has put up a run that matches her run from last season. All she has to do is run to the same level and she wins. Somtimes it doesn't pay to look past the obvious.
She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....
Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Still one more race where something could put in a big run, next weekend.
She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....
Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.
I'm hoping that big run will come from Goshen
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Confirmation bias?
For anyone that has backed her I fail to see how they wouldn't take some confidence from that, as it is a reason rather than nothing
I don't know why, but I just don't really like her, when I should really...
“We think it was her back but we don't really know, and I've been trying to find something to explain the loss - hopefully this is it. It’s just got her more relaxed in her back and more supple. Something was agitating her on the day and we hope we've fixed it, but cannot be sure until she races again.”
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Still one more race where something could put in a big run, next weekend.
She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....
Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
People who have backed her might take confidence in it, but I interpreted it as waffle dressing up the unknown:
“We think it was her back but we don't really know, and I've been trying to find something to explain the loss - hopefully this is it. It’s just got her more relaxed in her back and more supple. Something was agitating her on the day and we hope we've fixed it, but cannot be sure until she races again.”
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Originally posted by Spectre View Post
It starting to look like last year for me. Nothing has put up a run that matches her run from last season. All she has to do is run to the same level and she wins. Somtimes it doesn't pay to look past the obvious.
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Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
I’m waiting for her to be pushed out a bit before going in again on Epatante. Surely with the doubts and disappointment of her last race one book maker will push her to more than 3/1 closer to the off??Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Where do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?
His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.
Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?
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Originally posted by Al Ferof View PostWhere do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?
His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.
Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?
I don’t like making excuse after excuse for a horse, but the course form is there and the evidence that he’ll be suited by the way the champion hurdle will be run is there. I think the 20s that he was pushed out to a week or so ago was too big, and it soon got snapped up so you’d say that was the general consensus.
A way to play him could be to win the ICH & the champion hurdle, should get a fair price on that, I suppose the problem is if he goes very close, or if there’s some hard luck story you’re in a worse position than you’d started.
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Originally posted by Al Ferof View PostWhere do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?
His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.
Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?
I back Abra for the Supreme as he had bags of experience, along with good form line with EA. So always thought he'd do well but didnt think he'd have much scope to improve as a second season hurdler. Abra has 10 runs prior to the Supreme, and for me it looked like he was operating at his ceiling (a mark in the top of 150)
Abra has form line with both EA and Shishkin as novice hurdles. However, Abra went into open company with established hurdlers whereas EA and Shishkin are running against novices (again). Both EA and Shishkin have huge scope to improve as chasers, and that's what we're seeing now
I was hoping he stuck in there last time out, but he faded quickly. So for me I'm struggling to see him turn the tables in March
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Originally posted by ToniC View PostA way to play him could be to win the ICH & the champion hurdle, should get a fair price on that, I suppose the problem is if he goes very close, or if there’s some hard luck story you’re in a worse position than you’d started.
First time tongue tie for Abra in the Matheson, put on for a reason and appeared to little, no or a negative affect, or points towards something else
Either way.... difficult to make a case for him for the CH unless we see a vast improvement nto
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