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Upgrading the Fat Jockey forum!: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/fatjockeyforum

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Champion Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    Confirmation bias?

    For anyone that has backed her I fail to see how they wouldn't take some confidence from that, as it is a reason rather than nothing



    I don't know why, but I just don't really like her, when I should really...
    It starting to look like last year for me. Nothing has put up a run that matches her run from last season. All she has to do is run to the same level and she wins. Somtimes it doesn't pay to look past the obvious.
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

      It starting to look like last year for me. Nothing has put up a run that matches her run from last season. All she has to do is run to the same level and she wins. Somtimes it doesn't pay to look past the obvious.
      Still one more race where something could put in a big run, next weekend.

      She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....

      Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.

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      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        Still one more race where something could put in a big run, next weekend.

        She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....

        Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.

        I'm hoping that big run will come from Goshen

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        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

          Confirmation bias?

          For anyone that has backed her I fail to see how they wouldn't take some confidence from that, as it is a reason rather than nothing

          I don't know why, but I just don't really like her, when I should really...
          People who have backed her might take confidence in it, but I interpreted it as waffle dressing up the unknown:

          “We think it was her back but we don't really know, and I've been trying to find something to explain the loss - hopefully this is it. It’s just got her more relaxed in her back and more supple. Something was agitating her on the day and we hope we've fixed it, but cannot be sure until she races again.”

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

            Still one more race where something could put in a big run, next weekend.

            She's a really nice winner for me, and had the 40/1 last year (not after timing, was put up at the time when Fusil Raffles and her flip flopped), so really I should really like her....

            Maybe it's because I hoped Saint Roi / Abacadabras were special, and they've let me down a bit.
            I've just checked and if Shishkin does win I'll definitely be changing my tune

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            • Originally posted by charlie View Post

              People who have backed her might take confidence in it, but I interpreted it as waffle dressing up the unknown:

              “We think it was her back but we don't really know, and I've been trying to find something to explain the loss - hopefully this is it. It’s just got her more relaxed in her back and more supple. Something was agitating her on the day and we hope we've fixed it, but cannot be sure until she races again.”
              Yeah fair enough. I'm not going to get myself in to a debate where my defence rests of Nicky Henderson's comments

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              • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                It starting to look like last year for me. Nothing has put up a run that matches her run from last season. All she has to do is run to the same level and she wins. Somtimes it doesn't pay to look past the obvious.
                I’m waiting for her to be pushed out a bit before going in again on Epatante. Surely with the doubts and disappointment of her last race one book maker will push her to more than 3/1 closer to the off??

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                • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                  Yeah fair enough. I'm not going to get myself in to a debate where my defence rests of Nicky Henderson's comments
                  Hahaha that made me laugh a lot

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                  • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post

                    I’m waiting for her to be pushed out a bit before going in again on Epatante. Surely with the doubts and disappointment of her last race one book maker will push her to more than 3/1 closer to the off??
                    Given she goes straight to the festival I suspect she'll be solid until the immediate lead up TKP. You might get a small drift close to the race, and then clipped back in again. The only thing that would change that is someting winning a distance hard held at the DRF.
                    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                    Comment


                    • Where do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?

                      His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.

                      Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?

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                      • Maybe trainer form you could clutch at, otherwise nothing that I can see

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                        • Originally posted by Al Ferof View Post
                          Where do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?

                          His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.

                          Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?
                          Even if shishkin has improved for a fence, he’s got to be better than he’s shown this season hasn’t he? I think you can make excuses for him in the WKD hurdle & in the Morgiana, even though he won, I think it’s fair to say he’d have won better had something gone a proper champion hurdle pace in front? The last day they went a proper gallop, but the yard were in bad form and he scoped dirty after.

                          I don’t like making excuse after excuse for a horse, but the course form is there and the evidence that he’ll be suited by the way the champion hurdle will be run is there. I think the 20s that he was pushed out to a week or so ago was too big, and it soon got snapped up so you’d say that was the general consensus.

                          A way to play him could be to win the ICH & the champion hurdle, should get a fair price on that, I suppose the problem is if he goes very close, or if there’s some hard luck story you’re in a worse position than you’d started.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Al Ferof View Post
                            Where do you position yourselves on Abracadabras at this stage guys?

                            His form stacks up beautifully with Shishkin now and we know he goes well at Cheltenham with a 3rd and a 2nd already.

                            Has he had a reason for the disappointing performances this season?

                            I back Abra for the Supreme as he had bags of experience, along with good form line with EA. So always thought he'd do well but didnt think he'd have much scope to improve as a second season hurdler. Abra has 10 runs prior to the Supreme, and for me it looked like he was operating at his ceiling (a mark in the top of 150)

                            Abra has form line with both EA and Shishkin as novice hurdles. However, Abra went into open company with established hurdlers whereas EA and Shishkin are running against novices (again). Both EA and Shishkin have huge scope to improve as chasers, and that's what we're seeing now

                            I was hoping he stuck in there last time out, but he faded quickly. So for me I'm struggling to see him turn the tables in March

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by ToniC View Post
                              A way to play him could be to win the ICH & the champion hurdle, should get a fair price on that, I suppose the problem is if he goes very close, or if there’s some hard luck story you’re in a worse position than you’d started.
                              I'd leave him out of the ICH double on the basis that I can see Abra revising the form any time soon with Aspire Tower and I'm sure Bromhead has Honeysuckle ahead of Aspire.

                              First time tongue tie for Abra in the Matheson, put on for a reason and appeared to little, no or a negative affect, or points towards something else

                              Either way.... difficult to make a case for him for the CH unless we see a vast improvement nto

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                              • Do we think Aba, Saint Roi and Saldier are all going to turn up at the ICH ??

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