Originally posted by qzy
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Champion Hurdle 2021
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First proper post here, go easy.
I don't think Aspire Tower has gone under the radar or whatsoever but, I do think he's incredible value at 14/1.
Hes already beaten some much fancied horses in Saint Roi and Abacadabras twice.
I was actually taken back when he came second to Sharjah in December, I can see no reason why he couldn't reverse that result on another day. When hitting the line he was still giving it everything he had and didn't look tiring to me.
It also took me by surprise he's still only 5! I didn't realise just how young he still was.
I've just re-watched the triumph again, he was a lil left jumpy last year and very novice-y, again can be forgiven, I've no concerns with his jumping now.
In my opinion he is a speedy stayer. If he can get to the front and dictate the pace, hes in with a chance I believe.
Obviously epatante is the one to beat - but Silver Streak may have uncovered the formula to beat her. I believe Aspire tower could achieve this. I don't believe he's inexperienced anymore, just on an upward curve, and if that continues, there's only a couple of horses ahead of him.
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Originally posted by Silverbirch View PostFirst proper post here, go easy.
I don't think Aspire Tower has gone under the radar or whatsoever but, I do think he's incredible value at 14/1.
Hes already beaten some much fancied horses in Saint Roi and Abacadabras twice.
I was actually taken back when he came second to Sharjah in December, I can see no reason why he couldn't reverse that result on another day. When hitting the line he was still giving it everything he had and didn't look tiring to me.
It also took me by surprise he's still only 5! I didn't realise just how young he still was.
I've just re-watched the triumph again, he was a lil left jumpy last year and very novice-y, again can be forgiven, I've no concerns with his jumping now.
In my opinion he is a speedy stayer. If he can get to the front and dictate the pace, hes in with a chance I believe.
Obviously epatante is the one to beat - but Silver Streak may have uncovered the formula to beat her. I believe Aspire tower could achieve this. I don't believe he's inexperienced anymore, just on an upward curve, and if that continues, there's only a couple of horses ahead of him.
I think Aspire Tower falls into tactical no mans lands IMO. If he goes off from the front and tries to make all as he did in the Matheson then he'll be setting the race up perfectly for horses like Epatante or Sharjah. The flip side is if Rachel drops him in and he doesn't settle, the cost of racing keenly under restraint will likely be his undoing. I don't think they have a choice, they just have to go for it from the front. Might as well, young, clearly improving, pings his hurdles, so I think those tactics makes sense.
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Silverbirch
I went back and looked at this race earlier in the week, following some discussion in here, and came to the same conclusion but I chose to take the 10/1 NRNB.
There was some question over his participation at DRF but he was entered anyway, god forbid there’s an injury or poor performance I just wanted some insurance...
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
I think that's a fair assessment Silver. You might get a little push back on 'incredible value' in such a wide open race, but I don't think anyone would be shocked if Aspire Tower reversed the form with Sharjah. Sharjah was kept very quiet by PM, conserved energy and pounced late, whereas Aspire Tower tried to make all and Rachel clearly try's to pinch it from the front turning in, but I'd say mid race exploits caught up with him. Very credible run though.
I think Aspire Tower falls into tactical no mans lands IMO. If he goes off from the front and tries to make all as he did in the Matheson then he'll be setting the race up perfectly for horses like Epatante or Sharjah. The flip side is if Rachel drops him in and he doesn't settle, the cost of racing keenly under restraint will likely be his undoing. I don't think they have a choice, they just have to go for it from the front. Might as well, young, clearly improving, pings his hurdles, so I think those tactics makes sense.
I dont really have a pick in this race, I think it will be pretty hectic to be honest.
Do we think it will be a Rachel on board? Or will it be Power? As per the Bob Olinger posts.
Last edited by Silverbirch; 21 January 2021, 09:40 PM.
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Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
Could not agree more with this, Charlie. I think the chance of this for sure outweighs the positives.
I dont really have a pick in this race, I think it will be pretty hectic to be honest.
Do we think it will be a Rachel on board? Or will it be Power? As per the Bob Olinger posts.
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Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
Could not agree more with this, Charlie. I think the chance of this for sure outweighs the negatives.
I dont really have a pick in this race, I think it will be pretty hectic to be honest.
Do we think it will be a Rachel on board? Or will it be Power? As per the Bob Olinger posts.
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Really really fancy Navajo Pass to beat Buveur D’air on Saturday. 10/1 currently. Getting this down somewhere so that nobody claims I’m after timing when he wins.
BD literally had his hoof reconstructed & he’s also ageing and not race fit. Ballyandy is ancient. NP is the up and coming horse. Decent form from the Triumph last year. Great run last time & we know he stays further so the ground should be no issue really.
Going to get him in a double with Royal Pagaille for the NH chase
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Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View PostReally really fancy Navajo Pass to beat Buveur D’air on Saturday. 10/1 currently. Getting this down somewhere so that nobody claims I’m after timing when he wins.
BD literally had his hoof reconstructed & he’s also ageing and not race fit. Ballyandy is ancient. NP is the up and coming horse. Decent form from the Triumph last year. Great run last time & we know he stays further so the ground should be no issue really.
Going to get him in a double with Royal Pagaille for the NH chase
....McCain loves NP, from comments made I think a future Stayers Hurdle is the aim.
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